In 2020, Russian banks issued 1.7 million mortgage loans totaling 4.3 trillion rubles.

The volume of housing loans provided to Russians became the maximum for the entire time of observation.

This is stated in the report of the analytical center "DOM.RF".

Compared to 2019, mortgage lending in Russia increased by 35% in quantitative terms and 50% in monetary terms.

As the authors of the study note, one of the reasons for the observed dynamics was the decrease in lending rates due to the policy of the Central Bank.

Banks monitor changes in the key rate of the Central Bank and, on the basis of decisions made by the regulator, independently determine the level of long-term lending rates, including mortgage rates.

In 2020, the Bank of Russia reduced the borrowing rate from 6.25% to 4.25% per annum - the minimum level for the entire post-Soviet period.

As a result, according to the latest data from the Central Bank, from January to November, the average mortgage rate in the country dropped from 9% to 7.38% per annum.

According to the calculations of "DOM.RF", in the secondary market the indicator decreased from 9.3% to 8.1%.

At the same time, rates on loans for the purchase of housing in new buildings showed a more serious fall and decreased from 8.3% to 5.9% per annum.

In addition to the actions of the Central Bank, the launch of a preferential mortgage program for new buildings at 6.5% per annum had a positive effect on the Russian housing lending market.

According to DOM.RF specialists, within the framework of the initiative, banks issued 345.6 thousand loans worth over 1 trillion rubles.

Recall that in April 2020, Russians got the opportunity to get a mortgage loan at a preferential rate of 6.5% per annum.

Initially, the initiative was designed for six months, but the government extended its action until July 1, 2021.

Under the terms of the program, you can get a loan at a reduced rate when you buy apartments worth up to 12 million rubles in the Moscow and St. Petersburg agglomerations, as well as up to 6 million rubles in other regions of the country.

"As expected, as a result of the program, by the end of the first half of 2021, an additional 30 million square meters of housing will be introduced and about 350 thousand more families will be able to improve their living conditions," Mikhail Dorofeev, chairman of the board of the Obnovlenie KPC, said in a conversation with RT. ...

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According to experts, the launch of the preferential mortgage program also accelerated the recovery of the construction industry from the consequences of the coronavirus pandemic.

So, from January to November 2020, 64.4 million square meters of housing were commissioned in Russia, which is 1.4% higher than in the same period of 2019.

“The demand for real estate during the pandemic gave an impetus to the construction market in Russia, and developers were able not only to increase the pace of construction and commissioning of housing, but also to provide additional jobs for those who needed them.

At the same time, related industries also received support, which had a positive effect on the economy as a whole, "Pavel Sigal, first vice president of the all-Russian public organization of small and medium-sized businesses" Support of Russia ", explained to RT.

With an eye on the rates

According to analysts, in 2021, the dynamics of the Russian mortgage market will continue to largely depend on the actions of the Central Bank.

So, experts do not exclude that the regulator may again reduce the interest rate.

“In its decisions on the rate, the Central Bank always focuses on the inflation rate.

In the first quarter of 2021, the growth rate of consumer prices in Russia may temporarily accelerate to 5.3-5.5%.

However, after that, inflation will begin to slide down.

In such a situation, I admit a slight decrease in the rate by the end of the year - up to 7% per annum, "said Vasily Karpunin, head of the information and analytical content department of BCS World of Investments, to RT.

In addition to reducing the cost of mortgages, the decrease in the key rate of the Central Bank also leads to a drop in the profitability of bank deposits.

So, according to the regulator, in 2020 the maximum rate on deposits in the ten largest banks dropped from 6% to 4.48% per annum.

Under these conditions, Russians began to invest their savings in real estate more often.

Artyom Lyutik, managing director of Univer Capital, spoke about this in an interview with RT.

“In 2020, the investment demand for housing exceeded the indicator of 2019 by almost 20%.

The Russians began to shift money into square meters, since it became less profitable to keep savings in bank accounts, ”the expert explained.

Attention to prices

According to DOM.RF experts, the unprecedented growth in the volume of housing loans has not led to a bubble in the industry.

So, at the moment, the mortgage remains "the highest quality segment of the retail lending market," the authors of the study are sure.

At the same time, the boom in demand for real estate has led to a noticeable increase in housing prices in Russia.

As Artyom Lyutik noted, in 2020 the cost of apartments increased by about 10-12%.

At the same time, according to the analyst, an additional factor in the rise in prices in the real estate market was the rise in prices for metal structures and related materials.

“Now the state is taking control of the cost of products in the metal market, and therefore it can be expected that in 2021 the growth in real estate prices in the country will no longer be so serious and will be kept within the framework of inflation,” the specialist said.

The completion of the concessional mortgage program will also limit the rise in prices, Vasily Karpunin is sure.

According to him, now cheap loans stimulate Russians to invest more actively in real estate, and developers - to build more facilities.

The expected termination of subsidized loans in July will lead to a weakening of demand, while the supply on the market will remain high, the analyst said.

“As a result, prices will most likely not only stop growing, but will start to gradually decline already in the second half of 2021.

Developers will hold promotions in order to quickly realize the built houses and return the funds spent, "Karpunin concluded.