The cyclical stocks broke out and the New Year's Eve market opened, and the agency cried out again, "When are you not worthy of waiting?"

　　Cycle stocks broke out again.

On November 23, A-shares once again staged the "coal dance". As of the close of the day, coal (CITIC Level 1) rose 5.13%, and non-ferrous metals rose 3.13%.

In addition, both banks and non-banks have seen larger increases.

Historically, financial stocks represented by banks in the fourth quarter often performed well, and they are also frequent visitors to the new year's market.

　　China Business News has noticed that the current market performance is generally following the idea of ​​gradual economic recovery and tight liquidity expectations, and the order of deduction is also roughly correlated with the order of economic activity recovery.

　　"As far as our judgment is concerned, about half a month ago, the style change has actually happened." A Shenzhen public fund manager told China Business News.

　　An institutional person even believes that for the cyclical industry, the most important issue now is not allocation or allocation, but the issue of allocation.

　　Institutions are optimistic about style switching

　　The style switch from technology consumption to cycle is becoming more and more intense.

　　On November 23, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.09% and recovered 3,400 points in one fell swoop. The Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.74% and the ChiNext Index rose by 0.72%.

Trading in the two cities was active, with financial and cyclical stocks pulling up together, and the turnover was significantly enlarged.

　　In fact, since November, non-ferrous metals, mining, steel and other cyclical stocks have emerged from a wave of rising prices. Since the beginning of November, they have risen by 21.72%, 16.38% and 16.63% respectively.

　　In the first half of this year, under the logic of policy relaxation caused by the epidemic, technological growth and daily consumption performed well in the first half of the year. With the economic recovery in the second half of the year, the excess returns of the procyclical sector have gradually become apparent.

The order is: at first, heavy trucks for construction machinery, which benefited from infrastructure and real estate, followed by chemicals, shipping, etc., which benefited from exports that significantly exceeded expectations, and more recently, upstream resource products such as industrial metals, petrochemicals, and fiberglass.

　　"Cyclical stocks led the rise and the value cycle style was dominant, highlighting the closing of the year-end funding and the layout of the next spring market. In addition, the implementation of the US general election and the progress of vaccines, the LME copper price exceeded $7,000 and the weak U.S. dollar, which gave birth to the rise of commodities. ; Economic recovery and rising inflation expectations have driven the rise of cyclical stocks." A private equity source also said.

　　Historical quotations show that in the spring turmoil of the past five years, the macro backgrounds of 2016, 2017 and 2019 are similar to the current ones, and they are all in the process of economic recovery.

Taking 2017 as an example, the infrastructure and real estate industries benefited from supply-side reforms and shed reforms.

In the first quarter of 2017, the market rose unilaterally after a brief shock, and the spring market also opened in mid-January.

　　"However, the style switch will not cause much trouble for us. Investment still needs to adhere to the long-term vision. It is very difficult to participate in the short-term style game." Kong Xuebing, manager of Jinxin's steady strategy mixed fund, also told China Business News.

　　"Although the market favors procyclical assets in the short term, we believe that the impact of the epidemic on the macro economy will gradually weaken, and monetary policy is expected to gradually return to normalization. Economic restructuring and industrial transformation and upgrading will continue to be the main theme of the Chinese economy. The technology assets that experienced valuation contraction in the third quarter are expected to show better cost-effective advantages under the long-term economic advantage. Therefore, we have positive expectations for a new round of structural opportunities for high-quality technology growth stocks in the future. "Kong Xuebing said.

　　Fund lock-in "New Year's Eve Quotes"

　　Historically, financial stocks represented by bank stocks are easy to get out of a wave of market trends and even lead the spring turmoil.

　　Statistics show that bank stocks have achieved 34%, 19%, 17%, and 16% excess returns at the end of 2006, mid-2009, the end of 2012, and the end of 2014.

During the period from October to December 2014, against the background of the risk-free interest rate falling and incremental funds entering the market, bank stocks attracted a wave of market trends.

　　At the same time, many interviewees also expressed optimism about the current bank stocks.

　　For example, Rongtong reverse strategy fund manager Liu Ankun believes that the next stop for procyclical style diffusion may focus on post-cyclical big finance.

　　Tong Diyi, general manager of Longying Fortune Assets, also believes that the current financial stocks have the conditions to rise, economic recovery, performance margins have improved significantly, catalysts have resonated, and valuation restoration is imminent.

The economic recovery is gradually improving. In the fourth quarter, there is the possibility of internal and external demand resonance. Under the general environment of further economic recovery, large financial banks will benefit from the improvement of asset quality and the decline of non-performing rates.

　　"Currently, the assets of bank stocks are healthier than those in the first half of the year, and the valuation of bank stocks has room for improvement. I think investment in bank stocks should pay more attention to asset quality rather than short-term report profits." He said.

　　"In the context of economic recovery, assets with low valuations and high dividends often perform well, so we have been recommending dividend ETFs to our customers." A source from a bank's public offering also said.

　　"Combined with the current market's unanimous recognition of the cyclical style, and the low valuation of the financial sector and low institutional holdings, the next stage is expected to become the focus of attention of the cyclical style." Liu Ankun analyzed that if the valuation of the financial sector is also restored as a post-cycle A certain level may mean that the cycle style has come to an end.

　　In history, there has been a similar scene: the development of bank stocks in early 2018 directly ended the economic recovery cycle from mid-2016 to early 2018.

　　"We think there will be a new year's market, and it has already started. First of all, the US presidential election is announced, the boots are on the ground, and the long-term suppressed technology companies will gradually usher in the release of performance. At the same time, domestically, the field of technology innovation is booming. Under the joint promotion of policy catalysis, it may provide structural opportunities for the market. Therefore, we are very optimistic about the New Year's Eve market from now to the first quarter of next year and will actively participate." The Shenzhen public fund manager further stated.