Spain and Italy collide with the Netherlands due to the conditionality of European aid

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Reforms, reforms, reforms. The toughest negotiations in recent times within the EU, the one that should serve to fix the Budget for the next seven years and the Recovery Fund for the pandemic, began with a focus on size, then turned towards the composition of aid (loans or transfers) and has long been embedded in conditionality and reforms that will be essential to access community aid. The frugal, the partners that lead the Netherlands for a sober and contained package , assume that they cannot impose that there are only credits or that the amount is as small as they would like, so they are concentrating all their efforts where they have more chances to squeeze south.

The European Council that brings together the 27 heads of state and government began at 10 am and for hours the only thing that was discussed in Brussels was the words of Prime Minister Mark Rutte upon arrival and his position at the meeting , in direct collision with "Spain, Italy and many other countries", according to diplomatic sources. It was clear for days that the Summit of all Summits would have the Hanseatic Prime Minister as the protagonist, and he did not disappoint. "Reforms are needed. If the South needs help from other countries to deal with the crisis, and we understand this because there are limits to their ability to do it alone, it is reasonable that we ask for clear commitments to reform. If there are transfers to a certain level , the reforms are even more crucial and there must be absolute guarantees, "said the Dutchman. "There is a reason for this: reforms to make economies more resilient because a stronger Europe is needed in an unstable world. And countries that have lagged behind in pensions or the labor market have to take steps forward," said Rutte. , always the most direct leader.

The strategy was very clear this Friday from the first hour. There were a dozen main themes on the table that generated division: the size of the 2021-2027 Budget. The CAP and the cohesion funds. Rebates or compensatory checks for net taxpayers. The size of the Recovery Fund. Aid structure, with loans or transfers. The keys to money distribution and speed of distribution. Conditionality, the start date of payments or the question of the rule of law in Hungary or Poland and the possibility of linking resources to their fulfillment.

The frugal men divided the papers. Denmark and Austria, with Sebastian Kurz in search of prominence, were in charge of speaking out on the issue of the Multiannual Financial Framework, demanding that the maximum amount be reduced from the 1,074 billion proposed by the President of the European Council, Charles Michel, to the environment of 1,050 billion. For Spain, France, Portugal and many others, 1,074 billion was already unacceptable, very low, and they advocate at least 1.1 billion, as proposed by the European Commission since 2018. A lower amount than in the past, since without the United Kingdom there is less money, but more ambitious for the current challenges.

Sweden insisted on the issue of transfers, repeating that the credits are sufficient for recovery. It is a no-nonsense attempt to lower the amount being considered, up to half a trillion euros, as much as possible. And it is possible that it will be successful, since the Recovery Plan has many dishes, and some of them such as the Solvency pillar or the part of the European Agricultural Fund for Rural Development are vulnerable, or at least much more than the Recovery and Resilience Fund. or the React EU program. Of course, putting the scissors out there would imply having to touch the structure of the Budget to offer flexibility and gateways between many games.

For his part, Rutte focused on the issue of governance. That is: if the 27 capitals will be able to have a vote, vote and even veto on the National Reform Plans that each country will have to write to access the funds. The Netherlands wants ministers to vote unanimously, but it is totally alone and the legal services even doubt that it is possible. Spain, Italy or Croatia want them not to vote (because they prefer the so-called Comitology system , in which there is dialogue but it is always the Commission that takes the initiative), or that if there is, there is a maximum qualified inverse majority. But Michel and Germany's proposal, the one that seems most realistic, contemplates a qualified majority among the ministers, surely in the Ecofin.

"President Sánchez, with Italy and many others, has defended that such a system is unacceptable . It is necessary to have one that encourages reforms but that works and is efficient. It cannot be so complicated that it is very difficult to receive them," explained Spanish sources. precisely describing the frugal technique: complicate, delay and condition to reduce in practice what they may not be able to limit on paper.

The meeting started early and did not stop until almost 18:00 in the afternoon, when after two rounds of interventions by everyone, Michel imposed a three-hour break for meetings and consultations. He met Angela Merkel, Emmanuel Macron and the President of the Commission, Ursula von der Leyen. And then with Rutte himself or with Viktor Orban. The rest of the leaders took advantage of other bilaterals and to inform their delegations, because they are alone and incommunicado in the room part of the time.

The only way to reach an agreement is for everyone to give in, but it will take time. There are tons of items on the table and the logistics are much more complicated than usual. And there is curiosity to see how Michel will lead the negotiation, after misleading it last February February with an absurd system that involved 27 meetings during a whole sleepless night. Now everyone is waiting for their new unlocking proposal.

Today, the size of the delegations is limited, the distances impede the usual routines. And there are many calls to national experts from ministries to assess the impact of the changes in each game. So what everyone expects is a marathon session, with the 'sherpas' and ambassadors spending the night awake if necessary and a closure of the entire weekend. And even more.

Nobody rules out that the Council can be interrupted (as happened just a year ago) to study the situation and resume a few hours or days later. Rutte calculated that there was "less than a 50% chance of agreement this weekend," given the complexity. Merkel admitted that it would be "very, very difficult." Failure to achieve a final understanding now in each and every one of the things at stake would not in itself be a failure, it may take a little longer. But to leave it for after the summer would be to recognize incapacity, leadership and lack of resources.

"It takes a great will to achieve commitments on the part of all if we want to succeed, for something that would be good for Europe in light of this pandemic, for Europeans," urged the chancellor upon arrival. "We are all obliged to reach an agreement. Even though it is difficult, I am convinced that with political courage it is possible," said Sánchez, who perhaps had Robert Schuman's words in mind when, warning European ministers half a century ago, He stated: "You are not in a negotiation process, you are in a process to find a solution."

According to the criteria of The Trust Project

• Spain
• Italy
• Europe
• UK
• Sweden
• Portugal
• Poland
• Ursula von der Leyen
• Viktor Orban
• Germany
• Austria
• European Comission
• Croatia
• Denmark
• France
• Hungary

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