The horizon would not be so clogged as that, despite the daily announcements of job cuts. This is in any case what suggests a document posted online this Friday by the Ministry of Economy and Finance.
After an "annus horribilis" in 2020 for the French and world economy due to the coronavirus pandemic, Bercy indeed envisages a rebound in gross domestic product of 8% in 2021, "excluding the effect of the stimulus plan to come" specifies the ministry in a document preparatory to the debate of orientation of public finances put on line Friday.
"The gradual recovery started in mid-2020 would continue in the year 2021, supported by government measures," considers Bercy, adding that "GDP in 2021 will remain around 4% below its level in 2019".
Driven by domestic demand
But still, these are more than optimistic forecasts after the crisis due to the coronavirus epidemic. This is also above the IMF (+ 7.3%) or Banque de France (+ 7%) forecasts.
In the scenario delivered by Bercy, the recovery "would be driven by the dynamism of domestic demand", with a rebound in household consumption fueled "by the vigorous recovery in consumption observed from May 11", beginning of deconfinement, and by "the resistance of purchasing power" largely "preserved" by the support measures taken by the government.
With a downside, investment "would remain more significantly behind its previous level". Uncertainty about the financial and economic prospects "continuing to weigh", advance the ministry which anticipates an increase in investment growth of 20%. He predicts that "tourism will recover more partially, remaining throughout the year below the levels of 2019, reflecting a persistence of uncertainties".
- Business
- Covid 19
- GDP
- Coronavirus
- Economy Minister
- Bercy
- Economy