General Administration of Customs Announces China's Import and Export Data for May
Exports increased by 1.4%, the proportion of imports and exports of private enterprises increased
On June 7, the General Administration of Customs released the latest data showing that in May, my country's foreign trade imports and exports reached 2.47 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.9%, an increase from the 0.7% drop in April. Among them, exports reached 1.46 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.4%; imports reached 1.01 trillion yuan, a decrease of 12.7%.
Overall, in the first five months of this year, the total value of my country's imports and exports of goods trade was 11.54 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.9%, which was the same as the previous four months. Among them, exports were 6.2 trillion yuan, down 4.7%; imports were 5.34 trillion yuan, down 5.2%.
Gao Feng, a spokesman for the Ministry of Commerce, admitted at a regular press conference on June 4 that we are also closely monitoring and investigating the trend of China's foreign trade in the next step. At present, there are still many uncertain and unstable factors. At the same time, China's foreign trade development has strong resilience, great potential, and great room for maneuver. The long-term development trend has not changed.
Analysis 1
Why did imports continue to fall in May?
Under the epidemic, consumption, logistics, etc. are blocked
Compared with April, my country’s imports and exports in May were not optimistic. Data showed that imports in May reached 1.01 trillion yuan, a decrease of 12.7%, an increase of 2.5 percentage points from the 10.2% decline in April.
Bai Ming, deputy director of the International Market Research Institute of the Research Institute of the Ministry of Commerce, told reporters that the reason for the significant decline in imports is that on the one hand, China's economy was affected by the new coronary pneumonia epidemic at the beginning of the year, which also had a major impact on imports. The shrinking economy has led to fewer opportunities for spillovers. Although my country's economy has stabilized in the second quarter, it is more about "guarantee", that is, to protect the basic market of the economy and people's basic lives. There is not much mention of expansionary policies. At the same time, people's consumption is also restricted, income is affected, and in some areas due to the epidemic, inconvenient logistics, and smooth channels are also affected, these factors have hit imports. "On the other hand, the fall in the price of international commodities also reduces the amount of imports, but this is not necessarily a bad thing. my country can use this opportunity to increase imports to reduce import costs." Bai Ming said.
The General Administration of Customs said frankly that the average import price of bulk commodities mainly fell. In the first five months, China imported 445 million tons of iron ore sand, an increase of 5.1%. The average import price increased by 6.7% per ton, but crude oil, coal, natural gas, The average import price of soybean per ton fell by 21.2%, 4.7%, 14.7% and 1.7%.
Pan Xiangdong, chief economist of New Era Securities, told reporters that since the second quarter, import performance has been sluggish, which does not reflect a decline in domestic demand. We believe that it is mainly due to passive inventory replenishment in the first quarter. Mainly, historically, when inventory levels fell back, the incentives for companies to import tended to weaken. At the same time, domestic demand was still only a compensatory repair. The company’s business operations were expected to improve but remained cautious, and demand for imports was not strong.
In the final analysis, in the context of the spread of the new crown epidemic, China cannot survive alone. According to the World Economic Outlook released by the IMF in April, the global economy will shrink by 3% this year, and at the same time it will forecast a negative growth of 11% in global trade this year.
Analysis 2
The proportion of imports and exports has increased, why do private companies stand out?
Stronger adaptability Government intensively launches support policies
In the first five months, the import and export of private enterprises reached 5.11 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.8%, accounting for 44.3% of my country's total foreign trade value, an increase of 2.9 percentage points over the same period last year. In the same period, the import and export of state-owned enterprises reached 1.85 trillion yuan, a decrease of 14.1%, accounting for 16% of my country's total foreign trade value.
Bai Ming believes that private enterprises are more adaptable and responsive. Although affected by the epidemic, they can be adjusted in a timely manner. For example, masks, protective clothing, ventilators, and other epidemic prevention products are produced by private enterprises. At the same time, state-owned enterprises are mostly operating large projects, but many countries have suspended these projects during the epidemic.
In addition, some insiders told reporters that the growth of imports and exports of private enterprises is also related to the intensive government support policies introduced in recent months, such as increasing the export tax rebate rate for some products.
According to the announcement issued by the Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation, the export tax rebate rate for 1084 products such as porcelain sanitary wares was increased to 13%; the export tax rebate rate for 380 products such as plant growth regulators was increased to 9%. It will be implemented from March 20th.
At the same time, the sharp increase in the export of epidemic prevention materials is also a highlight of my country's foreign trade import and export. According to data released by the customs in mid-May, from March 1st to May 16th, a total of 134.4 billion yuan worth of anti-epidemic materials were exported nationwide. Since April, my country's exports of anti-epidemic materials have shown a significant increase, with the average daily export value ranging from 1 billion yuan in early April to more than 3.5 billion yuan in the near future.
These exported epidemic prevention materials include masks, protective clothing, goggles, ventilators, surgical gloves, etc. It is reported that the main export destinations of our epidemic prevention materials are the United States, Germany, Japan, France, and Italy.
Analysis 3
How to follow up my country's foreign trade?
Short-term export growth still exists, pressure continues to fall, China's economic recovery will accelerate
As mentioned by Gao Feng, there are still many uncertain and unstable factors in my country's foreign trade in the next step. Therefore, the 2020 government work report also mentioned that it is necessary to promote the basic stability of foreign trade, and at the same time, support the transfer of exported products to domestic sales.
Zhong Shan also mentioned when attending the "Ministerial Passage" of the two National Conferences in 2020. From the perspective of foreign trade, the most important thing is to stabilize the main body of foreign trade. At present, there are more than 300,000 foreign trade entities in my country, including private enterprises, state-owned enterprises and foreign-funded enterprises. Faced with the impact of the epidemic, these enterprises have encountered unprecedented difficulties. Some enterprises can solve these difficulties through their own efforts, and some need government help. The Party Central Committee and the State Council attach great importance to providing policy support and support from the aspects of fiscal taxation, financial insurance, and industrial chain supply chain, which reduces the pressure on enterprises and also stimulates the vitality of enterprises. We believe that as long as the main body of foreign trade can be stabilized, my country's foreign trade will be able to stabilize and develop.
Looking ahead, Pan Xiangdong believes that there is still pressure to continue to decline in the short-term export growth rate, which is also one of the main factors restricting the speed of subsequent economic repairs. At present, the overseas economic recession is at a quarterly level, and the process of deepening the recession from March to April. The margin improved in May but is still in recession. PMI's new export orders are at an extremely low level in history. At the same time, with the supply capacity of core countries After recovery, the phenomenon of high growth rate in the export of epidemic prevention materials is also difficult to sustain, and the export demand for some ICT products will continue to weaken. Therefore, there is still pressure to continue to decline in the short-term export growth rate. Due to the multiplier effect of exports, it has both investment and consumption. As a result, after the resumption of work and the slowdown of demand-based repairs, exports will restrict the speed of economic repairs. The point of optimism is that after the impact of the overseas economic quarterly recession on exports has been fully fulfilled, due to the resumption of production in Europe and the United States and other developed countries, it is expected that the European and American economies will begin to expand significantly in June. The "dark moment" of external demand is about to pass. Core countries The economy is undergoing resonant repairs, and China's economic repairs may accelerate again.
According to the BOC Securities Research Report, due to the impact of the global economic recession, it is expected that China's import and export volume will have a negative growth this year, but the decline in imports and exports will be weaker than the global average. The main reasons include that China's epidemic has been basically controlled, and it is the first to promote enterprises Resuming production and resuming production, the economy has a comparative advantage in global growth; China has been deeply embedded in the global industrial chain supply chain, therefore, the import and export trade of other countries will promote China's trade growth to a certain extent; because China has a full range of industrial advantages, The interruption of the supply chain of other countries' industrial chains is conducive to enhancing the substitution ability of Chinese products.
【Focus】
Why my country’s Imports and Exports to ASEAN Growth in the First Five Months: China, Japan, Korea and ASEAN Complementary
It is worth noting that under the epidemic, although my country’s imports and exports to the European Union, the United States and Japan have declined, imports and exports to ASEAN are still increasing. Statistics show that in the first 5 months, ASEAN was my country's largest trading partner, and the total trade value between my country and ASEAN was 1.7 trillion yuan, an increase of 4.2%, accounting for 14.7% of my country's total foreign trade value.
Bai Ming said that in fact, China has always emphasized the "two alliances", but the current epidemic in Europe and the United States is relatively serious, and it is still based on epidemic prevention. It has not been completely liberalized. Compared with it, Southeast Asian countries have already passed the highest peak of the epidemic. In some countries like Vietnam, there are currently more than 300 confirmed cases, and the epidemic is not serious. Therefore, under the current circumstances, China, Japan, South Korea and ASEAN are highly complementary, and can carry out regional division of labor and mutual allocation of resources. It's better.
Recently, official exchanges between China and ASEAN and China, Japan, and South Korea are also relatively frequent. On the afternoon of June 4, Minister of Commerce Zhong Shan also attended the special meeting between ASEAN and China, Japan, and South Korea (10+3) to fight the new crown pneumonia epidemic. . Zhong Shan suggested strengthening regional trade and investment cooperation, stabilizing and upgrading the level of the regional industrial chain supply chain, strengthening economic and trade policy coordination, guiding the "joint research on strengthening 10+3 supply chain interconnection", and maintaining the smooth flow of economic and trade personnel. Create favorable conditions for alleviating the economic impact of the epidemic and restoring regional economic growth as soon as possible.
Beijing News reporter Pan Yichun