Will the new energy subsidy set a threshold for Tesla to fall below 300,000 yuan?
New energy vehicle subsidy standards have been raised again, and more than 300,000 yuan will no longer be enjoyed. This move is expected to force many brands to lower their prices in the middle of the year.
Four ministries including the Ministry of Finance announced the following day the new energy subsidy policy rules, the next day, new energy car companies began to take action.
On April 24, Tesla China's official website showed that the price of the upgraded version of the Model 3 standard battery life and the long battery life version made in China rose by 4,500 yuan and 5,000 yuan, respectively. On the same day, Wei Lai Automobile launched a limited-time subsidy pocket plan. From now on to users who paid the deposit before April 26, they still enjoy the 2019 subsidy standard, and the difference will be borne by Wei Lai.
For Tesla, the price increase is mainly related to the reduction of new energy subsidies. The official website shows that the personal subsidies for the private purchase of the Model 3 standard battery life upgrade version and the long battery life version are currently 20.25 million yuan and 22,500 yuan respectively, which are 4,500 yuan and 5,000 yuan lower than the previous ones.
The reporter noted that this new energy subsidy new policy clarified the rules for new energy subsidies from 2020 to 2022. In principle, the subsidy standards were reduced by 10%, 20%, and 30% on the basis of the previous year. The most concerned of them is the subsidy red line of 300,000 yuan. This means that after the end of the transition period, the purchase of Tesla vehicles may not be supported by subsidies. However, CICC predicts that this will force many brands, including Tesla Model 3, to lower their prices in the middle of the year.
Missed subsidies?
The price is over 300,000, Tesla may be excluded
Last year, the decline in new energy subsidies triggered the first negative growth in the new energy vehicle market. In addition to the impact of the new coronary pneumonia epidemic in the first quarter of this year, the extension of new energy subsidies was basically a foregone conclusion. However, the threshold for car companies to enjoy subsidies is gradually increasing, and the subsidy standards will be reduced by 10%, 20% and 30% on the basis of the previous year. This time, the Ministry of Finance has imposed a quantitative restriction on vehicle subsidies for the first time. The scale of subsidies per year before 2022 will not exceed 2 million new energy vehicles. If the quantity is exceeded, the subsidies will no longer be enjoyed. Last year, China's sales of new energy vehicles was 1.206 million units, and the industry expects that this year's sales will be around 1.1 million units.
The most concerned about in the New Deal is the subsidy red line of 300,000 yuan. The Ministry of Finance stipulates the selling price, and new energy vehicles with more than 300,000 yuan will no longer enjoy subsidies, but in order to support the innovation and development of new business models such as "electricity exchange", new energy vehicle products that adopt the "electricity exchange" model will not be implemented. 300,000 yuan price limit requirement.
Cui Dongshu, secretary general of the China Passenger Car Market Information Association, believes that the 300,000 yuan subsidy threshold should be a good guiding policy. "The first is to increase the efficiency of subsidies, subsidize mainstream products, and reduce subsidies for luxury high-premium products. At the same time, it is beneficial to New energy vehicles enhance the price competitiveness of products and achieve integration with the price system of traditional vehicles. Eventually, the replacement speed of new energy vehicles to traditional fuel vehicles will be increased, and the penetration rate of new energy vehicles will be accelerated. "
At present, Tesla's lowest-priced model in China is the Model 3 standard battery life upgrade version, which is priced at 328,300 yuan before the subsidy, while the long battery life version subsidy to be delivered in June is 366,500 yuan before the subsidy. The two models have been included in the new energy subsidy catalog, but because they do not support the "electricity exchange" model, the price is higher than the threshold of 300,000 yuan. These models may no longer enjoy subsidies after July 22 this year.
However, the impact of new energy subsidies on Tesla may be limited. Before the Model 3 made in China was shortlisted for the new energy subsidy catalog, Tesla was quite popular in China. China is the second largest market for Tesla all year round. According to documents submitted to the SEC (United States Securities and Exchange Commission), in 2019 Tesla achieved revenue of US $ 2.979 billion in China, a year-on-year increase of 69.55%.
In addition, although the sales volume of China's new energy vehicle market fell by 56% year-on-year in the first quarter of this year, Tesla's performance was unique. According to data from the China Passenger Car Market Information Joint Conference, Model 3 sales in the first quarter were as high as 16,700 vehicles, which was stable. Ranked first in the domestic pure electric market sales.
Will the price be reduced?
The cost of raising the national yield is expected to drop by more than 10%
Regarding the price limit of 300,000 yuan and the support of the "exchange of electricity" model, different opinions are held.
Li Xiang, the founder of the car, said that the 300,000 threshold is designed to limit Tesla, but it gave Tesla the reason and necessity to reduce the price. The standard version can pull the price to 300,000, after the subsidy 27 Over ten thousand.
He Xiaopeng, the founder of Xiaopeng Motors, believes that Tesla's gross profit in China is 30%, and it is fully capable of adapting to new changes, but it will pose greater challenges to new EVs of some joint ventures and high-end brands. He predicted that Tesla's domestic Model 3 long-term battery subsidy would most likely reduce the price to 277,500 yuan during the year, a reduction of 61,500 yuan from the current price of 339,000 yuan (the price before Tesla's adjustment).
When the Shanghai Super Factory delivered the first batch of China-made Model 3 last year, Tesla revealed that its localization rate was only 30%, and it is expected to reach 70% by the middle of this year and 100% by the end of the year. Therefore, the Model 3 does have a price dip space. The previous research by Anxin Securities predicted that the standard cost of the Model 3 model of the US factory was about 230,000 yuan. With the increase in the localization rate, the cost of the Model 3 made in China is expected to be reduced by 10% -15%.
From the point of view of the price, the current price of the Model 3 standard battery life upgrade subsidy is only 23,800 yuan away from the threshold of 300,000 yuan. It is not difficult for Tesla to reduce the price to less than 300,000 yuan, but the long battery life version and The high-performance version is priced at 366.55 million and 419,800 yuan respectively, and it is more difficult to reduce it to less than 300,000 yuan.
It is worth noting that the new policy of new energy subsidies will only be officially implemented from July 22nd, and the official cooperation between Tesla and Ningde Times will begin in July. At that time, the price of the domestic Model 3 will have a new one. Round down. At present, Tesla's domestic Model 3 is equipped with power batteries supplied by LG Chem and Panasonic. The power battery supplied to Tesla in the Ningde era may be a lithium iron phosphate battery with a lower cost than a ternary lithium battery. This will be Prepare for the price reduction of the domestic Model 3.
Tesla founder Elon Musk said that the "Battery Day" originally scheduled for April 20 will be postponed until mid-May, when the company may introduce the application of "cobalt-free" batteries.
Wei Lai turned over?
The power-exchange mode is encouraged, and all models of Weilai are not affected
On April 24, Wei Lai Automobile said that although the national subsidy will be canceled for more than 300,000 models from April 23, all the models of Wei Lai support fast power replacement, so they are not affected. However, in the case where the subsidies are retreating as a whole, the ES8 / ES6 subsidies will be reduced by 2,000 to 7,000 yuan.
To this end, Weilai Automobile has launched a limited-time subsidy pocket plan. From now on to April 26th, users who pay the deposit still enjoy the 2019 subsidy standard, and the difference will be borne by Weilai.
The price is higher than 300,000 yuan but it is still included in the scope of subsidies. Wei Lai is regarded as the winner after the introduction of the New Deal. The reporter noticed that the relevant departments have encouraged new energy vehicle companies to promote the "replacement of electricity" model. At the end of December last year, Xin Guobin, vice minister of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, stated at his seminar on the study of new energy vehicle power exchange models that charging and power exchange are both energy supply methods for new energy vehicles. And characteristics, we should encourage the common development of various new energy vehicle electrical energy supply models, including charging and power replacement, and continuously improve the convenience of using new energy vehicles. Recently, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology also mentioned that it will accelerate the development of key standards in the fields of electric vehicles, fuel cell vehicles, power batteries, and charging and replacing.
On April 7, Weilai Automobile announced the delivery volume in March this year. The company said that 1533 vehicles have been delivered in March, an increase of 116.8% from the previous month. The number of deliveries in the first quarter of this year was 3,838, which exceeded the company's earlier expectations.
Beijing News reporter Lu Yifu