Guide

The new crown pneumonia epidemic has given the Chinese economy a harsh test paper: industry activity has entered a trough, finance is facing more uncertain risks, and global trade has also been pressed. In the post-epidemic period, more consideration was given to the resilience of the Chinese economy and the ability to "take advantage of the crisis". The tertiary industry has a greater impact

Affected by the epidemic, China's economy has been shut down for almost a quarter, and it is undoubtedly hit hard. The epidemic changed the global economic outlook, the pattern of global economic weakness and stabilization was broken, and the decline in economic growth was inevitable. China's micro-power generation and coal consumption rate shows that although economic activity in March has improved significantly month-on-month, it has not yet reached the level of the same period last year. Coal consumption for power generation in mid-March was only about 84% of the same period last year.

At present, the shrinkage of the demand side caused by the epidemic has been transmitted to the supply side, and the demand of many industries has been delayed or even disappeared within a certain period of time. The tertiary industry has outstanding influence.

In 2019, the tertiary industry accounts for 53.9% of China's GDP, and its contribution rate to GDP growth is 59.4%. Private enterprises are the main force in the tertiary industry, and a large number of small, medium and micro enterprises and individual industrial and commercial households are gathered. At present, the normal operation and production plans of enterprises and merchants have been broken, but rigid expenditures such as wages, rent, interest, and taxes have not stopped. Small and micro enterprises and individual industrial and commercial households with weak anti-risk capabilities have been greatly impacted and the related impacts have already appeared. According to a travel company, the cessation of the group tour around the Spring Festival Golden Week alone caused more than 1.2 billion yuan in revenue losses, affecting more than 130,000 people.

It is worth noting that the spread of the overseas epidemic has caused China ’s foreign trade to be hit on both sides: on the one hand, in the early stage of the epidemic, other countries restricted China ’s exports, and many export orders were cancelled or delayed; on the other hand, after the spread of the overseas epidemic in March, The overseas market has shrunk significantly, and the global supply chain has been hit. The negative impact may be greater than the negative impact of shutdowns and production shutdowns.

A person in charge of a shoe company in Guangzhou said that the company had been idle for two months. "The workers came back and had to keep them, but the orders were gone." At the beginning, the domestic epidemic was serious, and overseas customers cancelled orders because they were worried that they could not deliver the goods. Now that the epidemic in foreign countries has risen, the demand in overseas markets has decreased again. Businesses face double blows.

Forced industrial transformation and upgrading

At present, the domestic epidemic situation is relatively stable, and the economy has entered a stage of rapid recovery. The global spread of the epidemic has hindered the supply capacity of major economies, and its dependence on Chinese manufacturing may increase significantly in the short term.

Recently, the orders of Hanyu Group in Jiangmen City, Guangdong Province have not decreased but increased. Investigating the reason, Shi Huashan, chairman of Hanyu Group Co., Ltd. explained that because its main competitors are in Europe and foreign epidemics spread, many customers have transferred European orders to Hanyu Group. Continue to recruit more workers. "

But Shi Huashan is not very optimistic about the future expectations. "The decline in demand in foreign markets will eventually be transmitted to upstream manufacturers, and the next orders are likely to be affected."

The epidemic disrupted the economic rhythm and forced the transformation and upgrading of the industry. Some domestic companies regard this period as a period of transition. CRRC is a good example. Zhuzhou's rail transportation industry accounts for one-third of the country's share. There are more than 300 rail transportation equipment companies. Rail transportation equipment products cover almost all fields of the industry, and the local supporting rate has reached more than 70%. Nevertheless, the production and procurement of the leading company CRRC Zhuzhou Electric Locomotive Co., Ltd. was still affected, and the coordination of the industrial chain was severely challenged.

"As a manufacturing company with 13 layers of products, tens of thousands of parts, an average of 60 projects in production per day, and 400,000 material codes, production coordination is very complicated." Kingdee International, which provides digital transformation services Li Xiaohui, the project leader of Software Group Co., Ltd., said that after the completion of digital transformation and upgrade in the future, the predictable production order completion rate of CRRC Zhuji will rise from 85% to 96%, and the execution rate of supplier delivery plans will be from 80 % Rose to 98%.

Do a "combination punch" to restore economy and shift speed

Affected by the epidemic, the domestic industry's capital chain risks gradually emerged: the revenue of accommodation and catering services and other service industries fell steeply, and funds faced the risk of breakage; the manufacturing industry was affected by factors such as delays in construction, insufficient labor, and rising raw material prices. increase.

Ensuring capital turnover is an important driving force for enterprises to get out of the predicament. At present, the country and localities have promulgated many measures to help enterprises resume work and resume production. The Banking and Insurance Regulatory Bureau of Guangdong Province has introduced 22 measures to help small and medium-sized enterprises in financial relief. It clarifies that the financial services for small and micro enterprises are "increasing in quantity, falling in price and high in quality". Decrease by another 0.5%, and actively increase the credit limit. Major banks have also innovated financial products, optimized the supply of financial services for small and medium-sized enterprises, and injected funds into the economy to recover from economic difficulties.

Improving the tolerance of non-performing loans and setting a transition period for epidemic financial support is an important direction for financial institutions to accurately implement policies and reduce systemic risks. Some financial institutions are swapping time for space, and are actively promoting loan extensions and other measures, giving companies a certain period of observation period (such as half an year to one year after the end of the epidemic), and temporarily not reducing the customer risk classification during the observation period. Financial institutions do not consider the refinancing and maturity adjustment business carried out by the enterprises affected by the epidemic as non-performing loans, so as to help enterprises in difficulty and maintain the smooth operation of the financial market.

"The Chinese economy is undoubtedly resilient, but this resilience is not completely spontaneously realized, and needs to be exerted through institutional functions." Lian Ping, chairman of the China Chief Economist Forum.

After the outbreak, many places in China have taken measures to reduce the operating costs of SMEs in stages. For example, Guangdong issued “Several Policies and Measures on Increasing the Support to SMEs in Response to the Impact of the Epidemic Situation”, and refunding unemployment insurance premiums to enterprises that do not lay off staff or reduce staff at 50% of the total unemployment insurance premiums actually paid by enterprises and their employees in the previous year Be returned. During the epidemic prevention and control period, enterprises are allowed to postpone tax declaration. Enterprises that have difficulty in paying taxes are reasonably reduced or exempted from real estate tax and urban land use tax.

In the future, China and the global economy may undergo a certain degree of differentiation, and the development trend of the global epidemic situation is still unclear. In the long run, as long as China's economy plays a "combination punch" to restore the economy and shift speeds, the fundamentals of sustained and stable development will not change.

Source: "Half-Month Talks, Internal Edition" Issue 4, 2020 ｜ Original title: "Catch-up Examination for China's Economic Crisis"

Reporter for Half Moon: Meng Yingru

Editor: Yang Jiannan

Proofreading: You Li (Intern)