Cruise ship outages set to go without time

Our reporter corrects the month

"Due to the suspension of the cruise, the cruise companies have refunded the advance payment of the tickets to passengers." A person close to the cruise company told the Securities Daily reporter: "The main income of the cruise companies comes from the tickets. Revenue from ferry tickets will make life difficult for some underfunded cruise lines. "

In fact, the cruise outage has made the cruise industry the hardest hit in the global tourism industry. "For cruise companies that have been growing, this outage will be the first time in recent years that cruise companies have faced an industry reshuffle." An industry source, who asked not to be named, told reporters.

Regarding the impact of the cruise downtime on the industry, Hou Nannan, secretary of the Cruise Professional Committee of the Shenzhen Travel Service Association, told a reporter of the Securities Daily: "Due to the cruise downtime, many cruise companies are facing financial pressure. In this case, it will be A cruise ship company with capital advantage creates opportunities for integration. "

Cruise industry encounters "black swan" epidemic

The market value of the three giants has exceeded 300 billion yuan

An insider analyzed the reporter of the "Securities Daily" and said, "After a number of cruise ships found that passengers were diagnosed with the new crown virus, the stocks of U.S. cruise companies generally suffered a continuous plunge, and the stock market value of cruise-listed companies fell below the total asset value. In particular, after the shutdown of the cruise ship, some cruise companies even started to reduce salaries in order to save expenses, reduce costs. In addition, there are some small and medium-sized cruise ship companies that have no revenue due to the shutdown and finally have to announce Bankruptcy exits the cruise industry. "

The reporter checked the market trends of the Carnival Cruises US stock market and found that on February 5, when the Princess Diamond was first diagnosed, the stock price of the Carnival Cruises was 43.64 US dollars per share, with a market value of approximately 23.02 billion US dollars. Today, the company ’s market value has evaporated. 100 billion yuan. According to current stock price estimates, the market value of the world's three largest cruise companies has evaporated by more than 300 billion yuan.

Hou Nannan, secretary of the cruise professional committee of the Shenzhen Travel Service Association, analyzed to the reporter of the Securities Daily: "The shutdown of major cruise companies represents the loss of cruise revenue for the company, and the cost of the company still exists. Therefore, during the cruise shutdown, the company faced The biggest problem is the cost problem. Some small and medium cruise lines with insufficient funds will struggle. "

According to reports, the United Nations World Tourism Organization predicts in a statement that the decline in arrivals will result in an estimated loss of $ 300 billion to $ 450 billion in international tourism revenue, almost a third of $ 1.5 trillion in 2019.

The person close to the cruise company told the reporter, "Although occasionally some passengers will ask about the sailing time of the cruise, but the spread of the epidemic has not stopped, and the cruise sailing time has not been determined. Therefore, cruise ship tickets cannot be sold. The cruise company only Can lose money every day. "

According to the reporter's understanding, the major travel agencies and travel websites in China have not opened cruise booking services.

A relevant person from a travel agency told the Securities Daily reporter: "We have consulted the cruise company on the time of re-opening, but from the company's feedback, the time of voyage cannot be determined yet, and we need to wait for specific official information."

No revenue from cruise outages

Listed companies borrowing money

During the cruise industry downtime, even the world's three largest international cruise companies have had a difficult time. Cruise companies without cruise income can be said to be losing money every day, and in order to survive the "cold winter" of the cruise industry, even the cruise giants have to live up to debt.

According to the financial report disclosed by Carnival Cruises, the world's largest cruise company, as of February 29, 2020, Carnival Group's net loss in the first quarter of fiscal 2020 was US $ 781 million, a year-on-year decrease of 332.44%. At the same time, Carnival Group expects that the company will have a net loss in fiscal 2020.

Regarding the advance loss in 2020, Carnival Group said: "Given the uncertainty of the situation, the company cannot provide a profit forecast, but it is expected that in the financial year ending November 30, 2020, in accordance with US generally accepted accounting standards and adjustments After the foundation, the company's performance will have a net loss. "

At the same time, the Carnival Group also stated: "The company believes that the ongoing impact of the new crown pneumonia epidemic on its operations and global bookings will have a significant negative impact on financial performance and liquidity. The company is taking other actions to improve its liquidity, including Reduce capital expenditures and expenses, and seek more financing. "

The words haven't come down, Carnival Cruises has been eager to raise funds for rescue recently. The company said that "the plan is to raise $ 6 billion in equity and corporate debt to support its financial position."

Regarding the fundraising, Carnival Group said: "We cannot predict when any of our vessels will resume sailing, nor can we predict when the port will reopen to our vessels."

In addition, Royal Caribbean Cruises, the world's second largest cruise company, also said it had secured a $ 2.2 billion secured term credit facility. Royal Caribbean Cruises said that "the company currently has more than $ 3.6 billion in available liquid funds, including cash deposits and unused revolving credit lines."

Although the cruise giants are borrowing money and predicting company performance losses, some in the industry believe that the reshuffle of the cruise industry is also an opportunity to expand scale.

"Crisis is also an opportunity. For large cruise companies with sufficient funds, this opportunity can be used for mergers and acquisitions. This is an opportunity for industry consolidation." Hou Nannan said.

Demand for cruise travel

The future of the industry is still expected

After the cruise ship was found to have confirmed infection with the new crown virus, passengers who have booked cruise travel have begun to refund tickets. In response, some people in the industry told the Securities Daily reporter: "Because cruises are large public places and tourists are crowded, some large cruise ships have 5,000 passengers. Such occasions are conducive to the spread of the new crown virus, and refunds are natural.

The above industry sources said that the large number of passengers on the "Diamond Princess" infected with the new crown virus may affect consumers' panic psychology on cruise travel, which will likely affect the future development of the cruise industry.

In this regard, Hou Nannan took a different view and told reporters: "The development of the cruise industry has been growing, which shows that consumer demand for cruise tourism is increasing. I believe that after the epidemic has passed, the cruise industry will return to normal."

According to the 2020 cruise industry development outlook report released by the International Cruise Association (CLIA), in 2018, the cruise industry created 1.177 million jobs, issued salaries of US $ 50.024 billion, and global revenue of US $ 150 billion.

From the 2019 global financial reports of the three major cruise giants, we can also see that the cruise industry is in a period of rapid growth. Among them, Carnival Group's operating income in 2019 was 20.83 billion US dollars, up 10.3% year-on-year, a record high; net profit was 2.99 billion US dollars, down 5.1% compared with the previous year.

In addition, Royal Caribbean Group's 2019 operating income was US $ 10.95 billion, and its net profit was US $ 1.91 billion, a year-on-year increase of 15.4% and 4.9% respectively. Novozymes Group (US stock: Norwegian Cruise Lines) achieved operating income of US $ 6.46 billion in 2019. USD 930 million, a year-on-year increase of 6.6% and a decrease of 2.1%.

According to Hou Nannan, the cruise industry is an emerging industry and a fast-growing industry. "Now, more and more tourists are willing to choose cruise travel, especially family travel, elderly travel, conference travel and company-rewarded cruise travel has recently increased rapidly."

"Because cruise travel can avoid the pain of boat and car fatigue, it is more suitable for older people and families to travel. Either you can play in public places or return to the independent cabin to rest without interruption. The itinerary is more comfortable and does not disturb each other. Take what you need. "Hou Nannan told the Securities Daily reporter.

Although more and more passengers are choosing cruise travel, after the epidemic, will passengers still choose cruise? In response, Carnival Cruises said: "Even after travel recommendations and restrictions were lifted, cruise demand may remain weak for a considerable period of time, and we cannot predict whether and when each brand will recover. Demand or fares before the outbreak. "

Cruise companies' concerns are not unfounded. Some consumers have said, "If there is no epidemic, you will choose cruise travel." But some consumers said, "For your safety, wait and see."

"For consumers who are accustomed to cruise travel, they still choose cruise travel." Hou Nannan analyzed to reporters of the Securities Daily: "Cruises, like planes and trains, are crowd-intensive public places, and their risks are Sex is not greater than the first two, and cruise ships have more complete separate medical facilities and medical staff than other modes of transport. "

In fact, after the "Diamond Princess" incident became the focus of public attention, some professionals once commented that the central air-conditioning of cruise ships was a drawback of virus transmission. And this has become one of the reasons why consumers are discouraged from cruise ships.

In response, some people close to the cruise company told the Securities Daily reporter: "The central air-conditioning of cruise ships can actually be adjusted. After being adjusted to one-way ventilation, the indoor air can be delivered directly from the outside to the room. One-way air supply will not connect with other rooms and public areas. "

According to the above sources, the cruise company has carried out a series of preventive measures and staff training for the epidemic situation, but because the cruise has been out of operation, the cruise company operations still need to wait for news.