(Combating New Crown Pneumonia) Economic War "epidemic" record: What are the prospects of global food security for multi-country restrictions on agricultural exports?

China News Agency, Beijing, March 31 (Reporter Chen Su) In the past week, many countries joined the queue restricting agricultural exports. The spread of the epidemic globally has challenged food security. What is the outlook for global food supplies? Is it possible for food prices to skyrocket?

On March 22, the Ministry of Agriculture of Kazakhstan issued an order calling for the suspension of export of some agricultural products, including buckwheat, wheat flour, and sunflower oil, to ensure sufficient national food reserves.

Vietnam has decided to ban the export of various rice products in any form starting from March 24, and plans to store 190,000 tons of rice by June 15.

The official website of the Russian Ministry of Agriculture announced on March 27 that the Russian Ministry of Agriculture has formulated a draft resolution on the implementation of temporary quantitative limit measures for the export of grains of the Russian Federation to countries not members of the Eurasian Economic Union, which is planned to be on April 1, 2020 Until June 30, the export limit of Russian wheat, barley, corn and other agricultural products is rated at 7 million tons.

The Ministry of Trade and Industry of Egypt has recently decided to suspend the export of various legume products within the next three months. According to media reports, Serbia, Algeria and other countries have also banned agricultural exports.

The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) recently stated on its official website that unless rapid action is taken to ensure the smoothness of the global food supply chain and mitigate the impact of the spread of the epidemic on the entire food system, the world will face the risk of an imminent food crisis and the impact will be Appear in the coming months.

In the past week, China's agricultural product market has seen a clear rise. As of the close of the 30th, Douyi (domestic soybeans) futures rose 4.46%, Japonica futures rose 4.02%, late indica rice futures rose 3.68%, Douji (imported soybeans) futures rose 2.32%, and vegetable oil, corn, and soybean meal also rose to varying degrees. At the same time, the A-share agricultural sector rose sharply. The agricultural sector continued to lead the rise on two days this week, with a number of related stocks daily limit.

For China, the world's most populous country, will the ban on food exports by many countries affect China's food security? How will Chinese food prices change?

Cheng Guoqiang, a distinguished professor of Tongji University, said in an interview with China News Agency that China imports more than 100 million tons of grain each year, mainly soybeans and coarse grains. Rice and wheat imports are generally 2 million tons and 4 million tons, accounting for only 1% and 2% of total domestic consumption. "China's ration production has absolute security guarantee capabilities. In addition, China has a complete grain reserve control system and emergency response mechanism, and has the foundation to cope with crisis risks. This year, China has effectively controlled the epidemic in a timely manner, seized the opportunity of spring plowing, and provided a bumper grain harvest. Protection. "

Li Guoxiang, a researcher at the Institute of Rural Development of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, also said that China's three major staple grains have high stocks, sufficient supplies, low dependence on the international market, and a solid foundation for price stability.

Data show that China's total grain output has stabilized at more than 650 million tons for five consecutive years, the self-sufficiency rate of major grains has remained above 95%, and major ration grain reserves are sufficient.

Compared to staple foods, China's soybeans are highly dependent on imports. China Customs statistics online query platform shows that China ’s soybean imports from January to February this year were 13.5143 million tons, an increase of 14.22% compared with the same period last year. Over the past month, the average price of soybeans in China has risen from 3,500 yuan per ton to nearly 3,900 yuan per ton.

Speaking of the impact of the international market on China's soybean supply, Li Guoxiang said that China's high dependence on international soybeans and the spread of the epidemic globally will bring unfavorable factors such as increased inspection and quarantine procedures that slow down the logistics speed. It is possible that the price of imported soybeans will rise in the short term of. However, in the long run, the possibility of an international soybean exporter banning soybean exports is very small. In addition, domestic soybeans still have a certain reserve, which can buffer the impact of rising international soybean prices.

Cheng Guoqiang said that in recent years, China has continued to expand the source of soybean imports, and soybeans are not the main grain variety restricted by the grain exporting countries this time. It has little impact on China, but domestic supply chain companies still need to do corresponding risk prevention and control.

Experts said that, in fact, the current global food supply is generally loose, but for some countries that are not self-sufficient in food and dependent on food imports, if the global epidemic cannot be controlled in the short term, it is likely to face food shortages. In addition, some hype factors will bring unstable prospects to food prices.

Cheng Guoqiang said that the judgment of the current international food prospects needs to distinguish between two situations. One is that there is indeed an international situation that affects food supply due to restrictions on exports and blocked logistics and transportation. The second is not to exclude some organizations from creating panic, which is intended to raise prices Food prices. In the first case, with the control of the epidemic, international food prices will gradually fall. In the second case, psychological panic will cause hoarding behavior from the consumer to the national level, and the supply will gradually fail to keep up, resulting in prices. Soaring, the state's ban on exports will also bring losses to farmers' income, affecting the area of ​​grain cultivation in the future.

"The current international community needs to learn the lessons of the secondary disaster food crisis brought about by the 2008 financial crisis, and carry out international coordination and cooperation in a timely manner to deal with the possible food crisis." Cheng Guoqiang said. (Finish)