Zhongxin Jingwei Client on March 16th. On the 16th, the People's Bank of China announced that, while implementing the targeted reduction, it launched a medium-term loan facility (MLF) operation of 100 billion yuan with a term of one year and an operating rate of 3.15%. Flat.
Central bank announcement screenshot
As of the 16th, the central bank has suspended reverse repurchase operations for 20 consecutive trading days, and no reverse repurchase expires on the 16th. Currently on the market, MLF and TMLF (directed medium-term lending facilities) are the main ones, of which MLF has a balance of 410 billion yuan and TMLF has a balance of 805.6 billion yuan.
Previously, the market believed that the 16th would be an important window for observing whether the central bank would "cut interest rates." Before the LPR quote on March 20, a new MLF may be made on the 16th, and the interest rate may be lowered by 5 to 10 basis points.
In terms of RMB, on the 16th, the central parity of the RMB against the US dollar rose by 15 basis points to 7.0018. The median price of RMB against the US dollar was 7.0033 on the previous trading day.
The central bank announced on the 13th that it will implement a targeted RRR cut on March 16 and release a total of 550 billion yuan in funds. As soon as the news came out, the exchange rate of the RMB against the US dollar rose rapidly. The onshore RMB recovered against the US dollar at 6.98, an increase of over 500 points from its intraday low. As of 10:00, the onshore and offshore RMB against the US dollar were reported at 6.9981 and 7.0063, respectively.
Source: Wind
At 5 am Beijing time on the 16th, the Federal Reserve released a big move to cut interest rates by 100 basis points to 0-0.25%, and launched a quantitative easing plan. The Fed states that the new crown pneumonia epidemic has caused social and economic damage to many countries, including the United States. In response to the epidemic, the Fed cut interest rates to zero from the 15th and launched a $ 700 billion quantitative easing plan. The last implementation of zero interest rates came at a time when the 2008 financial crisis struck.
CICC believes that the controversial rate cut may increase market volatility in the short term. The Fed's interest rate meeting should be March 17-18. Such an emergency rate cut may trigger market controversy. Moreover, after this move, the conventional interest rate instruments in the United States have basically been exhausted. If the economy has a greater impact in the future, it can only rely on fiscal and other unconventional monetary policies. With the floods in the periphery, China's exchange rate is under pressure to increase and the pressure on interest rates will increase. The Fed's interest rate cut to zero in the short term will increase pressure on China's exchange rate appreciation, and pressure on interest rate cuts will increase. The continued reduction in global real interest rates may be positive for gold.
Zhao Qingming, a senior researcher at China Construction Bank, said that the future trend of the RMB is based on the evolution of the international foreign exchange market. If the US dollar index declines, it will be difficult for the RMB exchange rate to appreciate. However, the current European epidemic situation is severe, which may drag the European economy and the euro exchange rate, and the US dollar will still be relatively strong. The second is to look at imports and exports. February is the low season for imports and exports. The global economy has been affected by the epidemic. The flexibility of the exchange rate is also conducive to imports and exports. (Zhongxin Jingwei APP)