Original title: "Spring is the time for customers to place orders", how to stabilize the basic foreign trade in the epidemic

The epidemic has spread globally, on the one hand, foreign trade companies may face further decline in overseas demand, and on the other hand, they increase the risk that the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain cannot be coordinated.

The most intense peak of this large-scale war in China has passed, and industrial enterprises in Hubei and even Wuhan are also waking up.

Applications for resumption of work by several Dongfeng Motor Group companies and about 200 component suppliers have recently been approved by the local prevention and control command department.

On March 11, the Hubei Provincial New Coronavirus Infectious Pneumonia Epidemic Prevention and Control Headquarters issued the latest issue of the circular, which clearly clarified the zoning, classification, and timeliness of orderly advancement of enterprise resumption and production, and the safe and orderly flow of personnel.

Regarding the arrangements for resuming work in Wuhan, enterprises that are closely related to residents' lives and epidemic prevention and control can resume work and resume production. "Enterprises that have a significant impact on the national and global industrial chain support must have the prevention and control measures in place and the prevention and control responsibilities implemented. After the approval according to the procedures, they can resume work and resume production. "" Other enterprises will resume work before no later than 24:00 on March 20. "

Outside Hubei, more foreign trade companies have already resumed work and are focusing on old customers and new orders.

"If the Canton Fair opens, we will definitely go there. Spring is the time for customers to place orders." Cao Yun, manager of the export sales department of Yangzhou Shengjie Sanitary Products Co., Ltd., told First Financial reporter recently. Their company mainly produces various types of wet tissues, and its products are mainly exported to Europe, Australia, New Zealand, Canada and other countries and regions.

At present, many foreign trade companies are paying close attention to the Spring Canton Fair. As usual, the Spring Canton Fair will be held in April.

Cao Yun has participated in the Canton Fair for more than 20 years, and more than 50% of the order volume will be finalized at the Canton Fair each year. "There will be many old customers, and it plays a very important role (for the annual order volume)."

The pandemic of the global epidemic has increased the external uncertainty faced by foreign trade companies, and the affected cycle may also be longer.

On the 10th, Premier Li Keqiang hosted an executive meeting of the State Council to determine new measures to deal with the impact of the epidemic and stabilize foreign trade and foreign investment. The meeting pointed out that in accordance with the arrangements of the Party Central Committee and the State Council, to coordinate the advancement of epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development, we must persist in expanding opening to the outside world, and take various measures to stabilize foreign trade and foreign investment.

The meeting put forward a total of five measures to stabilize foreign trade and foreign investment, one of which is to do a good job of preparing for the Spring Canton Fair and vigorously promote foreign trade cooperation.

"The downward pressure on global economic and trade has increased, and the uncertainty of China's external development environment has increased." At the press conference on the 12th, Li Xinggan, director of the Foreign Trade Department of the Ministry of Commerce, said that based on the study of changes in the supply and demand situation, the current Chinese government trade The core of the policy is to stabilize the basic foreign trade.

Global industry chain impact

Just from January to February, due to the impact of the Spring Festival, especially the epidemic, China ’s total import and export volume was 4.12 trillion yuan, down 9.6%. Among them, exports were 2.04 trillion yuan, down 15.9%; imports were 2.08 trillion yuan, down 2.4%.

Li Xinggan said that from the perspective of local and industry reflections, in addition to common problems such as difficulty in resuming work and transportation, foreign companies also face external problems such as difficulty in receiving orders, contract performance, poor international logistics, and increasing trade barriers. severe.

Therefore, guaranteeing orders, guaranteeing markets, and fulfilling contracts are the biggest challenges currently facing foreign exporters.

The Canton Fair is a big platform for finding orders. The Canton Fair, the China Import and Export Fair, was founded in the spring of 1957 and is held in Guangzhou in the spring and autumn of each year. It is China's longest history, the highest level, the largest scale, the most complete variety of goods, the largest number of buyers and the distribution of countries The most comprehensive comprehensive international trade event in other regions.

At the 126th China Import and Export Fair, which ended on November 4, 2019, the export turnover was 207.09 billion yuan (US $ 29.288 billion); 25,000 companies participated in the export exhibition, 642 companies participated in the import exhibition, and overseas buyers 186,000 people.

Cao Yun said that the company will also participate in foreign exhibitions, but compared to the Canton Fair opened at the door, foreign exhibitions not only take more time, but also cost more.

In order to ensure the market and fulfill the contract, we must first promote resumption of work. Taking the automobile industry as an example, there are more than 1,500 auto parts companies in Hubei Province. They are not only supporting automobile companies in Hubei Province, but also an indispensable link in the national and global automotive industry chain.

Nissan Motor supplies a total of more than 800 parts from Hubei. Nissan shut down some production lines in Kyushu, southwestern Japan, in mid-February due to supply cuts. IHS Markit market research shows that if Hubei's auto parts factory has not resumed work by mid-March, Nissan's first quarter is expected to reduce production by 1.7 million vehicles.

"Dongfeng and other companies resumed work on March 9th. The return rate of Dongfeng Group is almost 50%, which is relatively fast, but the resumption of production is lower. At present, some employees in Wuhan are basically returning to work." China Automotive Industry Xu Haidong, deputy chief engineer of the association, told First Financial.

Xu Haidong also talked about an emergency solution. Hubei parts and components companies still have inventory. If Hubei transportation can be cleared as early as possible, such as issuing green passes, getting passes can pass, so that companies in the downstream of the industrial chain can maintain production.

At present, except for Hubei Province, the resumption of work in other provinces and cities has improved, and 16 provinces and cities have resumed work. According to the resumed production and resumption of 23 enterprise groups (including 203 vehicle bases, which account for more than 96% of annual sales) closely tracked by the China Automobile Industry Association, as of March 11, the resumption rate was 90.1%, and the overall recovery rate exceeded 40%, the return rate of employees is 77%.

The epidemic is spreading globally, on the one hand, foreign trade companies may face further decline in overseas demand, and on the other hand, it increases the risk that the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain cannot be coordinated. After all, the epidemic has affected some of China's major trading partners such as Japan, South Korea, the European Union, and the United States.

On the 11th local time, the Director General of the World Health Organization (WHO) Tan Desai said at a news conference in Geneva headquarters that after assessment, the WHO believes that new coronary pneumonia can be identified as a "pandemic".

The outbreak is raising concerns about the global economy and trade. On March 11, the latest issue of the service trade barometer released by the WTO shows that from the end of 2019 to the first quarter of 2020, the growth of global service trade continued to weaken. The prosperity index was 96.8, lower than the previous period's 98.4, which was lower. A baseline value of 100 indicates that global trade in services continues to face resistance.

The WTO believes that this indicator has not fully reflected the economic impact of the new crown virus, and the service trade prosperity index may decline further in the next few months.

Li Xinggan said that the epidemic has developed rapidly in some countries and regions outside the country. In the short term, the impact on the global economy and the industrial chain is unavoidable. Global economic and trade growth is under pressure. The resumption of production and new orders by Chinese foreign trade companies will also be affected. The supply chain of the global industrial chain will be disrupted to some extent.

"But China's foreign trade industry chain has a complete structure, strong competitiveness, and close cooperation with the global supply chain. We will continue to pay close attention to the development of the epidemic and the resumption of production and production, strengthen analysis and judgment, implement compliance assistance policies, and support enterprises. Quickly resume production and reach production. At the same time, strengthen global anti-epidemic cooperation and strive to minimize the impact of the epidemic on China's foreign trade and world trade development. "Li Xinggan said.

What's in the policy toolbox?

To stabilize the basic foreign trade market, we need to enrich the policy toolbox, help enterprises more accurately, develop a diversified international market, support the rapid development of new foreign trade formats, and then maintain the stability of the global supply chain. This requires the joint efforts of governments and enterprises.

At present, China is accelerating the resumption of production and production of foreign trade enterprises. The specific approach is: keep an eye on the key areas in the industrial chain and leading enterprises and key links in the foreign trade field, establish a list of key foreign trade companies' resumption of work, provide accurate assistance, and coordinate the resumption review department to accelerate the resumption of production resumed in the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain to ensure the foreign trade industry The supply chain operates smoothly.

From the perspective of the overall resumption of work of local foreign trade enterprises, the resumption rate of foreign trade enterprises in 8 provinces and cities including Shandong, Anhui, and Liaoning exceeded 80%. Judging from the resumption of work of key foreign trade enterprises, the resumption rates of 19 provinces and cities such as Zhejiang, Jiangsu, and Shanghai have reached or approached 100%.

At present, the impact of the epidemic on Yangzhou Shengjie Sanitary Products Co., Ltd. is not significant. Orders have been completed a number of years ago. Most of the 70 and 80 workers at the factory have resumed work, and production capacity has been restored by 80%.

The impact Cao Yun felt is that the current global demand for nonwovens has increased significantly, leading to rising raw material prices. "We also told our customers that we can place orders in advance, and we will help our customers to stock up some raw materials first."

In order to minimize the impact of the epidemic on the development of foreign trade, various localities and departments have issued intensive foreign trade policies, and comprehensively used fiscal, financial, export credit guarantee and other means to support foreign trade enterprises to resume work and resume production, to protect the market, and to secure orders.

Li Xinggan also said that he fully supports foreign trade manufacturers to resume work and reach production and restore normal market order as soon as possible. First of all, it is necessary to give play to the role of the bilateral economic and trade cooperation mechanism, accelerate the construction of free trade zones, promote the signing of high-standard free trade agreements with more countries, and work groups for the smooth construction of trade, and create a good international trade environment.

At present, China has signed 17 free trade agreements with 25 countries and regions, and its free trade partners have covered Asia, Latin America, Oceania, Europe and Africa. In 2019, the 15 member countries of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement ended negotiations as a whole, which also marked a major breakthrough in the construction of a free trade zone with the largest population, the largest membership structure, and the largest development potential in the world.

In 2019, China and six countries including Saudi Arabia, Hungary, South Africa, and Russia established new trade unblocking working groups, established a rapid response mechanism, and practically promoted the solution of problems in the bilateral trade field.

In addition, Li Xinggan said that it is necessary to increase policy support. Further improve the export tax rebate policy, reduce the burden on enterprises, expand foreign trade credit, meet trade financing needs, and support enterprises with markets and orders to effectively fulfill their contracts. Further expand the short-term insurance coverage of export credit insurance, and promote a reasonable decline in rates.

At the same time, public services must be optimized. Support local, industry organizations and trade promotion agencies to build public service platforms, provide enterprises with necessary legal and information services, and help enterprises participate in domestic and foreign trade promotion activities. At the same time, innovation and development are encouraged. Bring into play the role of new trade formats and new models of cross-border e-commerce and market procurement on import and export, support enterprises to build a number of high-quality overseas warehouses, and improve the international marketing network system.

Cao Yun also believes that there is "opportunity" in crisis. For example, the expected demand for wet wipes for antibacterial and antivirus efficacy will be magnified, "If you can seize business opportunities and adjust the product structure, you can overtake the curve."

Customs data monitoring shows that in February, China ’s foreign trade import and export value increased steadily, and the number of declarations submitted by enterprises increased steadily. According to a survey of 2552 foreign trade sample companies, 80.6% of them have resumed work.

Li Xinggan said that the international market demand structure is relatively stable, and production and living needs are rigid. Under the influence of sudden public events, it is normal for a certain degree of fluctuation to occur, and it is generally within a reasonable range.

Author: Bushi Ye Liu Yang Xuhui Yun Tang