Chinanews client Beijing March 4th (Xie Yiguan) In the recent hit TV series "Home", the heroine of a real estate agency company store manager Fang Sijin claimed, "There is no house I can't sell." In reality, real estate agents and real estate salespeople under the epidemic are worried, "How should I sell my house?"

On February 19, an employee of a real estate agency in Fengtai District, Beijing worked at the front desk of the store. China News Agency reporter Zhang Yushe

Epidemic impact, it is difficult to reproduce the "golden three silver four" property market

The change in sales prices of commercial housing in 70 large and medium-sized cities shows that in January, the number of cities with house prices rising was 47, a decrease from 50 in the previous month.

In addition to the decrease in the number of cities with rising prices, "In January, the price index of newly-built commodity housing in 70 cities across the country increased by 6.5% and 0.3% from the previous month, respectively, and the growth rates narrowed."

Yan Yuejin, research director of the Think Tank Center at the E-House Research Institute, said: "Early in the 2020 Spring Festival, the data on housing prices in January will be relatively less affected by the new crown pneumonia epidemic."

"The market gradually reflects the impact of the epidemic in February-March." Said Zhang Dawei, chief analyst at Zhongyuan Real Estate.

The reporter noticed that in response to the impact of the epidemic, in February housing companies turned to the online market. Evergrande, Sunac, R & F, and other housing companies opened online marketing models. Evergrande attracted buyers with a strong discount of "75% off". By.

However, data from Kerer showed that in February, the sales of the top 100 real estate enterprises were 324.33 billion yuan, down 43.8% month-on-month and 37.9% year-on-year. The sales performance reached the lowest monthly sales record in recent years. The data of the Middle Finger Research Institute also showed that the number of new houses in the 17 cities monitored in February fell by 61.2% month-on-month, 27% more than the decline in January.

Bank of Communications Financial Research Center senior researcher Xia Dan said that at present, the impact of the epidemic on the property market lasts at least until the end of the first quarter, and the traditional peak season of the "golden three silver and four" property market is unlikely to appear.

Data map: Hainan real estate under construction. Photo by Luo Yunfei

More than 60 cities shot to stabilize the property market, alleviating the pressure on housing enterprises

In response to the impact of the epidemic, new regulations in the property market have been introduced in many places. Zhang Dawei said that according to incomplete statistics, in February, more than 60 cities issued different degrees of real estate control policies, mainly to reduce the pressure on corporate funds.

It was found that the reduction, exemption of property rents, deferred payment of social security premiums, deductions and deferred payment of taxes, etc. were involved in Shenzhen, Hangzhou, Shanghai, Hefei, Nanning, Lanzhou, Guiyang, Zhengzhou and other cities; Shenzhen, Wuhu, Huizhou, Dalian, Hohhot , Wuhan, Harbin, Xi'an, Nanning and other cities have also introduced policies such as deferring the payment of provident funds and reducing the ratio of provident fund deposits.

In addition, more than ten cities including Jinan, Xi'an, Hangzhou, Shanghai, Tianjin, Wuxi, Nanchang, and Nanjing have issued new land policies to deal with the epidemic, and some cities have made clear that land payments can be applied for extension or payment in installments. Huangshan, Suzhou and other places have even modified the land requirements for existing house sales policies and moderately relaxed the pre-sale conditions for real estate.

"Delaying real estate policies such as delaying payment of land transfer fees and accelerating corporate pre-sale, to a certain extent, alleviate the financial pressure on real estate companies," Zhang Dawei said.

"Deferred loan repayments for housing companies, changes in pre-sale conditions, and partial tax deductions are all current pain points for real estate companies and construction units." Zhang Bo, director of the branch office of 58 Anju Guest House and Property Research Institute, also pointed out, especially repayment. Postponement and adjustment of pre-sale terms directly benefit the relief of short-term funding pressure for enterprises.

Data Map: A real estate building in Longyan City, Fujian Province. Photo by Zhang Bin, China News Agency

Subsidies for buying houses in some cities, down payment in some cities

Compared with most cities, stabilizing the property market is mainly working to ease the pressure on housing enterprises, and in other cities, consumer stimulus policies have also continued to increase. Third- and fourth-tier cities such as Hengyang, Haimen, Qinzhou, Zhumadian and other cities will grant subsidies for the deduction of house purchase tax.

On February 21, Zhumadian issued 17 policies for stabilizing the property market, which not only subsidized the purchase of houses, but also raised the housing provident fund loan amount from 450,000 yuan to 500,000 yuan. Even the minimum down payment ratio for the purchase of the first home by the provident fund was reduced from 30% to 20%, becoming 2020. The first city in China to reduce the down payment.

Immediately following Zhumadian, Nanning, Dongguan and Fuzhou adjusted the conditions for the use of provident funds and increased the amount of provident fund loans. For example, Fuzhou increased the home purchase subsidy of 150 yuan per square meter and the housing provident fund loan limit to 600,000.

"The adjustment of the down payment ratio policy is a very strong 'warm property market' policy, which can well stimulate the demand for house purchases," Yan Yuejin said. However, on February 28, the relevant responsible comrades of Zhumadian Government were interviewed by the Henan Provincial Party Committee and the Provincial Government, which seemed to make the whole market "warm and cold."

On February 19, citizens passed a sales center in Fanyang Road, Fengtai District, Beijing. Affected by the new crown pneumonia epidemic, the number of on-the-spot visits has decreased, and various housing companies have started online VR housing selection models, and some real estate have launched promotional models. China News Agency reporter Zhang Yushe

Mortgage policy unchanged, house prices may fall?

"At present, the most critical and core policy is still the mortgage policy, especially the down payment of the first and second homes. So far, there has been no policy change on the down payment of commercial loans across the country." Zhang Dawei said that if the mortgage policy remains unchanged , House prices may fall.

"Relaxation policies in the property market of different scales have recently appeared in various places, but Zhumadian has been interviewed, which fully reflects the red line and constraints in policy relaxation, that is, the" housing, living and speculation "positioning is still to be implemented. It would be relatively cautious to introduce policies with obvious relaxation everywhere.

On February 19, the central bank emphasized in its latest monetary policy implementation report that it would not use real estate as a short-term means of stimulating the economy.

On March 3, unlike other places, Guangzhou issued a policy related to the property market on the same day and chose to cancel the purchase restriction policy for commercial services projects (apartments, shops, office buildings). "Commercial services projects have not completed the planning and construction procedures. The minimum division unit is no longer restricted; the commercial service items are no longer restricted to the sales target, and the registered rights are no longer limited to the transfer target. "

"At present, the changes in business service project policies have little impact on the overall market, and the market mainly depends on policies such as the loan ratio of these properties." Zhang Dawei believes that the new policy for business service projects in Guangzhou is conducive to solving commercial reform projects. The stock is a policy pilot.

"Weak demand in the short term and aggressive promotion by housing companies may cause downward pressure on house prices," said Cao Jingjing, deputy director of research at the R & D Center of the China Index Research Institute. "However, housing prices in some key cities have been adjusted for a period of time. There is limited room for continued sharp declines in house prices. "

Zhang Dawei believes that "the loosening policy of the real estate industry is the trend, and under the premise of" no housing and speculation, "there will be more policies to promote the improvement of real estate." (End)