(Combating new crown pneumonia) China's economic war "epidemic" record: responding to the epidemic impact China's economic policy "trot chase"

China News Agency, Beijing, February 25 (Reporter Wang Enbo) In the most critical stage of the epidemic prevention and control, a very large-scale meeting attended by 170,000 people set the tone for China's economic policy.

A conference to coordinate the advancement of the new crown pneumonia epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development work was recently held in Beijing. Xi Jinping, general secretary of the CPC Central Committee, state president, and chairman of the Central Military Commission attended the meeting and delivered an important speech. Xi Jinping pointed out that the new crown pneumonia epidemic will inevitably have a greater impact on the economy and society. The more it is at this time, the more comprehensive, dialectical, and long-term perspective is needed to view China's development, and the more it is necessary to strengthen and strengthen confidence. Taken together, the fundamentals of China's long-term economic improvement have not changed, and the impact of the epidemic is short-term and generally controllable.

Zhang Yu, chief macro analyst of Huachuang Securities, believes that with this as a sign, China's economic policy has entered a "trotter catch-up" stage.

Zhang Bin, a senior researcher at the China Finance 40 Forum (CF40), analyzed that the impact of the epidemic on the economy has two major characteristics: First, the short-term negative impact on the macro economy is obvious, but as the epidemic situation improves, the negative impact will gradually fade away. Do not change the medium- and long-term trajectory of the macroeconomic operation; the second is that there are differences in the extent and duration of impact on various economic sectors.

At this meeting, Xi Jinping put forward eight requirements for the overall promotion of epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development, involving all aspects of macro-control, employment stabilization, poverty alleviation, protection of people's livelihood, and stability of foreign investment.

Experts believe that the economic importance is obvious and policies need to be remedied and fast-tracked to catch up. It is imperative to restore normal production order as soon as possible.

China needs to find a "golden balance point" when it comes to orderly resumption of work while preventing and controlling the epidemic. Neither can we adopt a "one-size-fits-all" approach to different regions and hinder the restoration of economic and social order, nor can we unduly relax prevention and control and lead to the abandonment of previous achievements.

Zhang Yu noticed that at present, the localities basically adjusted the grading standards of the districts (counties) in accordance with the weekly assessment rhythm to prevent local officials from hesitating to resume work due to concerns about accountability. "With standards, there is a basis for 'trotting and catching up'."

In order to be stable, you need to find a good rhythm. Macro policies focus on counter-cyclical adjustments. The rhythm and intensity must be able to hedge against the impact of the epidemic, prevent economic operations from slipping out of a reasonable range, and prevent short-term shocks from becoming a trend change.

Proactive fiscal policies should be more proactive and proactive, and policies such as fiscal discounts, large-scale fee reductions, and deferred tax payments should be implemented as soon as possible for enterprises. Prudent monetary policy should pay more attention to flexibility and moderation, put support for the recovery and development of the real economy in a more prominent position, make good use of existing financial support policies, and introduce new policy measures in a timely manner.

"From the perspective of policy tools, fiscal policy should play a leading role." Zhang Bin told a reporter from China News Agency that fiscal policy has the characteristics of precise orientation, temporaryness, and short policy lag, and is suitable for responding to one-time short-term shocks of the epidemic. The monetary aggregate policy has a long time lag to play its role, which requires its adjustment not only to look at the moment, but must be forward-looking.

In addition, some of the losses caused by the epidemic have been fully exposed, and some are still to be fermented. For example, the resumption of work in enterprises is generally postponed, the return of workers to work is delayed, the production and operation difficulties in the tourism, catering and other service industries have increased, and the demand for market recruitment has declined.

Wu Ge, a CF40 member and chief economist of Cheung Kong Securities, told a reporter from China News Agency that the employment data is a lagging indicator and lags behind GDP performance. Affected by the impact of the epidemic this year, and the number of college graduates is significantly higher than the previous two years, there is indeed pressure on employment in the short term. But overall, its performance still depends on the macroeconomic pull, the epidemic has a short-term impact on the economy, and the impact on employment will be relatively short-term. (Finish)