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Spain is a country that, without any doubt, is aging. The greater life expectancy, added to a notable moderation in the birth rate, is resulting in the average age being increasingly higher and, therefore, that the proportion of retirees more relevant. And so much so, that the Bank of Spain warns that there are "certainties" that the dependency rate will go from one retiree for every three current assets, to a figure of just one person retired for every two of working age .

"The proportion between the population over 65 and the working age (16-64) will increase from the current 30% to 50-70% in 2050, " said yesterday the general director of Economy and Statistics of the organization, Oscar Arce, during the day Pension plans in Spain , organized by Cinco Días and Ibercaja.

The forecast of when these proportions of one retiree will be reached for every two assets and if in 2050 the figure will be 50% or 70% varies depending on the source to which one goes. According to those of the National Institute of Statistics (INE) or that of Eurostat, the 1-2 relationship would be possible before 2040, that is, in less than 20 years . On the other hand, if you go to that of the Independent Authority of Fiscal Responsibility (AIReF), the milestone would be delayed a few more years and in the following years a moderation would occur since the body that directs José Luis Escrivá expects better behaviors from the population.

In fact, this has been a point of confrontation with the INE, since in the opinion of Escrivá the demographic forecasts of Statistics are incorrect. And that, he explains, is of great relevance, because simulations and future estimates in aspects as sensitive as Social Security are carried out with these official projections that, in his opinion, are incorrect.

The AIReF, for example, estimates that in 2050 the population of Spain will exceed 55 million, while the INE and Eurostat also anticipate that around 50 million people. This remarkable variation would include, among other things, greater immigration or a better birth rate, aspects that in both cases would result in an increase in the dependency rate. But even so, the data of the Fiscal Authority suggest that the Spanish economy is moving towards this reduced relationship between workers.

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