• Trade wars: The IMF warns against the "gradual slowdown" of Spain in the midst of a global slowdown
  • In 2020, the IMF anticipates an abrupt global slowdown and believes that the commercial war will cost 600,000 million

The distance between the rich regions of Spain and the poor will increase due to the climate crisis. That is the conclusion of the World Economic Outlook report, published on Tuesday by the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The document analyzes the impact of global warming on eight industrialized economies . Of these, Spain is the second in which this phenomenon will have a greater impact when it comes to exacerbating regional economic differences, only behind the United States.

The Fund's study is based on differences in productivity between rich and poor regions. On average, the latter are 15% less productive than the former , according to the institution, and that differential will increase with the 'greenhouse effect'. The reason is that poor regions tend to have a greater presence in the primary sectors - agriculture, fishing, livestock, and mining - and secondary - industry and construction - while the rich ones depend fundamentally on the services sector. And climate change affects the primary and secondary sectors more than the tertiary. It is a small change, of just 3 percentage points in productivity from now to 2011.

The problem, according to the IMF, is that the productivity losses generated by the warming of the Earth are practically irreversible . After the US and Spain, the institution points out in its sample the most affected countries to Italy, Sweden, Canada, Germany, and the United Kingdom. The Netherlands economy is literally not affected by the phenomenon, although the Fund clarifies that its forecasts are in the lowest part of the range of possible productivity changes due to climate change.

The primary and secondary sector has more problems to adapt when the situation changes . It's something we see every day with commercial tensions, the breakdown of supply chains, or natural disasters. In fact, the US GDP suffers when there is heavy snowfall in that country due to the impact of these meteorological phenomena on construction.

While a worker in the services sector can adapt better to another job, even with a lower salary, a farmer, a miner, or a fisherman has a harder time. In addition, industry, mining, fishing, and agriculture tend to demand more investments and more continuously than services , and the return on those investments is often lower. The primary and secondary sectors are also more dependent on factors such as water abundance, the existence of communication routes in good condition, or simply sunny days. Thus, as the Global Economy Outlook Fund explains, "an increase of one degree Celsius in temperature lowers the productivity of sectors exposed to heat (for the most part, agriculture and industry), while having no negative effect on sectors that are not exposed to heat (especially services). "

To that is added the geographical situation. "The change in temperatures does not have a linear effect on economic activity: in very cold regions, it can bring economic benefits. Beyond a certain 'optimum' level, temperature increases can damage production and increase productivity. However, there is significant heterogeneity in the relationship between temperature and labor productivity in different sectors, "the report states. In that sense, Spain has a relatively bad geographical position , since it is in a warm area where the 'greenhouse effect' is going to be more visible.

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  • Spain
  • IMF
  • Climate change
  • Drought
  • economy
  • Macroeconomy

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