United Kingdom and Gibraltar European Union membership referendum

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For Doubters, Liam Fox had no patience. "All the cowards who say we can not do that, say absolute crap," said Britain's Minister of International Trade. By March 29, the day of Brexit, the 40 free trade agreements between the EU and other countries will have been copied. "One second past midnight," they would come into force for Great Britain, Fox called cheering supporters of his Tory party.

That was in early October 2017. It has long since become clear that Fox will not be able to keep his promise. Just last week, he had to let industry officials meet in a confidential meeting, arguing that Brexit would also lose access to most international EU trade agreements.

How gloomy the situation looks but exactly, could keep London so far secret. However, an exchange of correspondence between the British government and the EU Commission, which is in the SPIEGEL, now shows the full extent of Fox's failure. A list in it indicates that by the end of January, London has not been able to continue any of the more than 40 EU trade agreements with third countries.

Agreement with Switzerland and the Faroe Islands

Since then, the British are only four successor contracts, but the volume should be manageable. The partners are

  • Switzerland,
  • Chile,
  • the East and South African trade association ESA
  • and the Faroe Islands.

The government of Prime Minister Theresa May has also reproduced only a fraction of several hundred other international agreements of the EU - such as air traffic, fisheries or legal cooperation.

The list is part of a letter from Tim Barrow, London Ambassador to Brussels, to Martin Selmayr. In mid-December, the powerful Secretary-General of the European Commission reminded Barrow in writing of the obligation of the British to keep the Commission informed about negotiations with third countries, provided that EU competences are touched. Selmayr demanded "timely" information on any such agreement that Britain is currently negotiating or intending to negotiate until Brexit.

On January 25, Barrow's response fluttered to the Berlaymont, the Commission's headquarters - and its content is expected to further increase the nervousness of the UK economy. She fears anyway an unregulated Brexit, through which she loses overnight access to the internal market and the customs union of the EU. Now there is also the hope that at least trade with the more than 60 third countries will be spared from the disaster that accounts for 11 to 15 percent of British exports.

The Brexiter's copy-and-paste plan crashed

In any case, the British will lose access to the EU's treaties with third countries through Brexit, regardless of whether or not they still succeed in withdrawing from Brussels. So there must be successor agreements. No problem, the Brexiteers in the Tory Party claimed: Countries like Canada or Japan just have to copy their treaties with the EU for the UK, an easy exercise.

But this plan has gone completely wrong. In addition to the four recently concluded treaties, Ambassador Barrow's list includes only one more trade agreement to be "sealed" shortly - with the Cariborum Caribbean group of states. Overall, therefore, nothing that could significantly cushion the economic consequences of an unregulated Brexit. The successor agreements are intended as an emergency measure for precisely this "no deal" Brexit, as Barrow emphasizes in his letter to Selmayr.

It does not look much better with the hundreds of other EU international treaties: only 21 could take over Britain by the end of January. These include aviation agreements with the United States, Canada and seven smaller states, agreement with Washington on insurance companies and contracts with a handful of countries on civil nuclear cooperation. After all, the British were able to come to terms with Australia via the wine trade, and with New Zealand through trade in animals.

No successors to the important agreements

Successors to the large caliber under the EU trade agreements but - for example, those with Canada, Japan, South Korea, Mexico or Turkey - you look on the list in vain. It is the end of Brexiter's popular fantasy that powerful economies were eager to transfer their treaties with the EU to Britain after Brexit.

Instead, it seems that many experts have long warned that countries like Canada and Japan see little reason to give the small UK the same terms as the much larger EU. In addition, London is under time pressure and desperately needs new agreements. For the most lengthy and complex talks on free trade agreements, this is a very bad position.

The British had to first encounter this reality in January, when a Japanese delegation appeared in London. A simple copy-and-paste of the existing agreement, so much the representatives of Tokyo made clear, will not exist. Instead, one would calmly negotiate tariffs, rules and quotas. Tokyo, it was said, was confident that it would produce better conditions than with the EU.

What would happen if Britain were no longer profitable for foreign investors in the future, Japan's ambassador in London already made it clear a year ago: "No private company could then continue its business," said Koji Tsuruoka just outside the door of the headquarters of Prime Minister May. "It's that simple."