Gauthier Delomez 5:41 p.m., March 11, 2023
NASA has discovered in recent days the existence of an asteroid about fifty meters in diameter, more than 19 million km from Earth.
This celestial object should "approach" our planet on February 14, 2046, but can it end its course there?
The first estimates tend to reassure.
2023 DW, a year and two letters that can cause concern... This name was assigned by NASA to an asteroid about fifty meters in diameter, recently discovered by the American space agency, which offers everyone the opportunity to follow its development here.
According to NASA calculations, currently more than 19 million km from Earth, it could "approach" it on Valentine's Day, February 14, 2046. So, does it represent a danger to our planet ?
We've been tracking a new asteroid named 2023 DW that has a very small chance of impacting Earth in 2046. Often when new objects are first discovered, it takes several weeks of data to reduce the uncertainties and adequately predict their orbits years into the future .
— NASA Asteroid Watch (@AsteroidWatch) March 7, 2023
Very low Earth impact probabilities
In reality, this celestial object has a one in 625 chance of colliding with the Earth in 2046, reports BFM TV based on the predictions of the European Space Agency (ESA).
The asteroid 2023 DW should come as close as possible to our planet at … 1,828,086 km away in 2046, according to NASA estimates, or almost five times the distance between the Earth and the Moon.
This is why the probabilities of percussion of our planet remain very low.
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As Davide Farnocchia, engineer of the American space agency explains to CNN, and relayed by franceinfo, scientists however need to collect more data to “reduce the uncertainties” linked to this asteroid.
In the coming weeks, the forecasts will be refined and updated on the NASA website.
A potential impact in the Pacific Ocean
Nevertheless, if we project ourselves into the idea that the celestial object crashes on the Earth, according to the calculations of an Italian amateur astronomer, this one would have all the probabilities of stranding in the Pacific Ocean.
With just 3 days of arc, I found about 1 in 400 chance of impact on Feb.
14, 2046 (JPL 1/770).
Surely this possibility will soon be ruled out, however, as an exercise, I calculated where the asteroid might fall if this possibility occurred.
— PS (@Piero_Sicoli) March 2, 2023
"Even if the impact takes place in the middle of the Pacific Ocean, an asteroid could then generate a tsunami causing damage and victims", specifies all the same Ian Carnelli, responsible for the ESA interviewed by Le
In any case, the first estimates make it possible, initially at least, to dismiss this theory.