— Andrei Vladimirovich, scientists have established that the recent earthquake in Turkey led to a shift of lithospheric plates by three meters.

According to experts, the Arabian plate has moved about three meters in relation to the Anatolian plate.

Have there been such noticeable plate movements before?

- The horizontal movement of lithospheric plates, leaving their bases in the upper mantle, is a proven phenomenon.

However, this is always not a one-time, one-time shift, but a smooth process during which different parts of the plates move at different speeds.

During an earthquake and the aftershocks following it (aftershocks. -

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), a series of local horizontal and vertical deformations occur, resulting in shifts of lithospheric plates on a regional scale.

It can be said that the Arabian plate has shifted relative to the Anatolian block, but it is still premature to assess real movements.

How typical are earthquakes of this magnitude for this region?

There are two active fault zones in Turkey.

The first, the North Anatolian Fault, runs along the southern macroslope of the Pontic Range in the north; it stretches from the west to the east of the country.

The second - in the east, stretches from the Mediterranean Sea through the areas of the cities of Iskenderun, Gaziantep and further to the northeast.

The movement of the Arabian Plate from south to north leads to constant shifts.

In the zone of these faults, the same type of shear deformations are constantly recorded and powerful earthquakes often occur.

So, in 1999, a very strong earthquake of magnitude 7.7 occurred in the western part of Turkey.

In 1939, 1944, there were earthquakes of magnitude 7.5 in the same area, etc. There is historical evidence of devastating earthquakes in the territory of modern Turkey starting from 900 AD, many such events were noted, for example, in the 17th century.

In recent years, forecasts have often been made in scientific studies, according to which a powerful earthquake was expected in the west of the country, in the Istanbul region.

However, it happened in the east of the country.

By the way, where it should have happened.

  • Buildings destroyed by an earthquake in the Turkish city of Antakya

  • AP

  • © Hussein Malla

In general, it was clear to all experts that an earthquake with a magnitude of more than seven points should occur in Turkey, the only question was when exactly it would happen.

- Do you know at least the approximate frequency with which this happens?

- The growth of stress in the earth's crust is constantly happening, at some point it finds a way out in the form of strong seismic shocks.

It is traditionally believed that one major earthquake in a seismically dangerous area occurs approximately once every 200–250 years.

In practice, this can happen much more often - we see this in the example of Turkey.

If we could accurately predict the timing of earthquakes, there would be no such tragedies as the one that happened in Turkey.

“Earthquake warning smartphone apps are being developed — they record the very first shocks using the accelerometers built into the phone and report danger.

Do you think such mobile technologies can help reduce the number of victims in the event of an earthquake?

— Yes, such sensors can be installed in smartphones that can track micro-oscillations of the earth.

But the problem is that in a man-made urban environment, such microfluctuations occur constantly due to the subway, truck traffic, etc. And in such conditions, such sensors will constantly work even without the threat of an earthquake.

It is not yet possible to separate anthropogenic seismic noise from true deep shocks with personal gadgets.

- Were there any features of the earthquake in Turkey and Syria?

- There is still little scientific data, but judging by the information circulating in the media, one of the most unusual phenomena is observed in the area of ​​​​the Turkish city of Iskanderun, which began to flood after the earthquake.

That is, there was a sinking of land areas, which led to the flooding of the coastal strip.

- On February 6, seismic tremors were noted all over the planet - they were recorded in the area of ​​the Kuril Islands, in New York, on Baikal - more than 200 earthquakes were recorded in total.

How typical is such a situation when a seismic wave rolls over the entire planet?

Yes, this is a typical situation.

For example, when in 1977 in Romania, in the mountains of Vrancea (Southern Carpathians) there was a major earthquake, tremors reached Moscow - chandeliers swayed in the apartments and dishes rattled.

So yes, when large earthquakes occur, the shocks can travel very long distances.

In addition, it must be taken into account that the focus of attention of the media and society is shifting, everyone is beginning to closely follow the news about tremors.

For example, in the Baikal region, seismic tremors are constantly observed; they were recorded this summer, for example, and also in autumn.

This is a common occurrence in this superseismic zone stretching towards Mongolia.

But then no one wrote about it, but now people have paid attention to all the events of this kind taking place on the planet.

At the same time, earthquakes are far from always accompanied by such destruction and casualties as they are now in Turkey.

For example, just recently, on January 9, an earthquake of magnitude 7.6 occurred off the coast of Indonesia, as a result of which people died, but the victims were not in the thousands, but in the tens.

  • Flooding of streets in the Turkish city of Iskanderun after the earthquake

  • globallookpress.com

  • © Mehmet Malkoc / Keystone Press Agency

In Turkey, several factors overlapped at once - a high population density and a very low quality of construction, "on parole", as they say.

In addition, the earthquake occurred early in the morning when people were sleeping in their homes.

How much is the nature of earthquakes understood by science today?

- Fundamentally, it is clear - there are physical, computational models.

Lithospheric plates are constantly moving, stress accumulates at their junctions, which periodically finds discharge in the form of earthquakes - when the elastic limit of rocks in the earth's crust is exceeded.

By the way, the epicenter of the earthquake on February 6 in Turkey and Syria was close to the surface, in the earth's crust.

Such earthquakes usually have a strong effect on the terrain - the pattern of the hydro network, river channels, large breaks on the surface.

So this event may well have other geographical consequences, which so far have simply not been recorded - now it’s not up to it.

- Now rumors are spreading in the Turkish media and social networks about the artificial nature of the earthquake.

How can one comment on such hypotheses from a scientific point of view?

- It is technically possible to provoke an earthquake - if you make underground nuclear explosions of high power.

Such explosions can cause additional stress in the earth's crust, which can become a trigger - a trigger for an earthquake - if it was already brewing.

However, there is no ground for such conversations in relation to the February 6 earthquake, since artificial explosions are always recorded by instruments in various seismic centers.

It's impossible not to notice.

  • Gettyimages.ru

  • © Gary S Chapman

- Can seismic activity zones shift on a global scale - some areas "calm down", and some, on the contrary, "wake up"?

- Yes, the periodicity in the activity of certain tectonic sites is indeed noted.

In certain periods, the Baikal rift (a large tectonic fault in the earth's crust.

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) is activated, then, for example, the Rhine graben.

By the way, it is located in the center of Europe - this is also a rather seismically active zone.

Or, for example, in the United States, a terrible explosion of the Yellowstone macrovolcano is expected, and the public is constantly frightened by this.

It is also located in a seismically active zone, just now tectonic processes are not very intense there.

— In addition to Baikal, what other seismically active zones are there in Russia?

For example, there was a forecast that an earthquake similar to the Turkish-Syrian one could occur in the future in Crimea.

- There is no need to even guess, since there is a seismic zoning of Russia.

Not only the Crimea, but also all the mountain structures of Russia, including the old and quiet Urals, belong to zones of tectonic and, in particular, seismic activity.

By the way, geologically old mountains are usually located in the zone of seven-point seismicity.

It is possible not to mention the Far East, everyone has heard about the seismic activity of Kamchatka.

At the same time, the Caucasus is generally included in the zone of nine or ten points of activity.

All these data should serve as a guide for builders, buildings should be erected in accordance with them.

At the very least, the builders know exactly about these regulations - whether they comply or not is another question.

Returning to Crimea, I note that according to the latest edition of the map of the General Seismic Zoning of Russia, its southern coast, like the Caucasus, is included in the 9–10 point seismic activity zone, the central regions are 8–9 point, and the northern one is seven point.

  • Vacationers on the shore of the Simferopol reservoir in the Crimea

  • RIA News

  • © Konstantin Mikhalchevsky

- The question that torments everyone is whether it is possible to predict large earthquakes so that they do not take away so many human lives?

“Unfortunately, this is not yet possible.

Although such developments are underway.

For example, scientists are trying to learn how to learn about an imminent earthquake thanks to GPS systems for tracking the altitude position of the earth's surface.

The fact is that the Earth "breathes", its surface constantly fluctuates at different speeds due to the processes taking place in the bowels.

The oscillation amplitude is measured in millimeters, so we do not notice it.

You can try to fix the areas where the planet suddenly begins to “breathe” more often and “deeply” due to the beginning of deep perturbations.

Plus, no one cancels traditional geophysical methods, which allow tracking the first microshocks that precede strong fluctuations.

True, this does not always happen - for example, on February 6 in Turkey and Syria, the earthquake began abruptly, without warning shocks.

There are also various indirect methods - for example, you can track the level of groundwater, since internal fluctuations in the earth's crust are reflected in water horizons.

And lastly, animals often react in advance to an approaching earthquake and leave the house.

They feel micro-oscillations at a certain frequency, this is a known fact.

So if you live in a seismically dangerous area, then having a pet is a good idea.