[Actually] "The increase in greenhouse gases after the Moon Jae-in government phased out nuclear power" What is the truth?

The Presidential Transition Committee has predicted a major policy change, saying that the Moon Jae-in government's carbon neutral policy has rather increased greenhouse gas emissions.

The Moon Jae-in government has been pushing for a 40% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2050.

In the process, criticism of the Moon Jae-in government's nuclear phase-out policy emerged.

In 2017, when the nuclear power plant utilization rate was lowered due to the nuclear phase-out policy, GHG emissions increased by 2.5%, and in 2019, when the nuclear power plant utilization rate increased, it fell by 3.5%.

SBS 'Actually' has been verified by the team.

The above data are based on official data from the Greenhouse Gas Information Center and the Electric Power Statistics Information System.

In fact, the team reorganized the numbers.

It is true that in 2017, when the Moon Jae-in administration took office, greenhouse gas emissions amounted to more than 700 million tons, a 2.5% increase from the previous year.

At that time, electricity sales from coal-fired power plants increased by 7.3% compared to the previous year.

Coal power generation is considered the main culprit in greenhouse gas emissions.

In the end, the argument of the transition committee is read to mean that the amount of greenhouse gas emissions varies according to the utilization rate of nuclear power plants.

If so, how would the Ministry of Environment, the responsible ministry at the time, analyze the increased greenhouse gas emissions?

I checked the press release at the time.

It is analyzed

, although some facilities were abolished in 2017 according to the policy of early abolition of old coal promoted by the current government .

6 newly established units: Bukpyeong Units 1 and 2, Shin Boryeong Units 1 and 2, Samcheok Green Units 2, and Taean Units 10

The increase in GHG emissions from the steel sector (6.1 million tons↑) was mostly due to the increase in the use of raw coal (590 10,000 tons ↑).

· The reason for the increase in the use of coking coal

is analyzed to be due to

The increase in emissions from the fluorine-based greenhouse gas consumption sector (3.1 million tons↑) was caused by the increase in emissions from the refrigerant gas (2.2 million tons↑) and process gas (1.3 million tons↑) sectors.

· This is analyzed to be due to the increase in

.

Sales ('16 → '17): semiconductor 66.3 → 102.7 trillion won, display 30.6 → 32.4 trillion won - Ministry of Environment press release, last October 7, 2019

At the time, the reasons presented by the Ministry of Environment were broadly two-fold.

Greenhouse gas emissions increased due to the impact of the newly installed thermal power plant during the Park Geun-hye administration and the boom in the steel and semiconductor industries.

Regardless of what is right or wrong, the emphasis on 'the responsibility of the former government' seems to be the same as before and now.

However, it is difficult to explain the increase in greenhouse gas emissions as one attributable reason.

As explained in the acquisition, nuclear power sales have decreased and coal-fired power sales have increased, so the statistics for 2016 are difficult to explain.

In 2016, sales of nuclear power plants fell 1.8% compared to 2015 and sales of coal electricity increased by 6.3%, but greenhouse gas emissions increased by only 0.1%.

In particular, GHG emissions are linked to economic conditions such as 'boom' and 'recession'.

If the economy is booming, production will increase as much as that, and naturally, a lot of electricity is used, which also emits a lot of greenhouse gases.

In fact, the team also wrote down the economic growth rate in the table above for viewers to refer to.

Let's take a look at the argument of the transition committee regarding the 2019 figures.

If you look at the table above, it is true that in 2019, when the utilization rate of nuclear power increased, greenhouse gas emissions decreased by 3.5%, and it is true that nuclear power plant sales increased by 9.2% during this period.

It can be seen that this is in opposition to the Moon Jae-in administration's policy of denuclearization.

Again, we will refer to the press release from the Ministry of Environment that analyzed the data at the time.

In the power generation and heat production sector

, greenhouse gas emissions decreased by 19.61 million tons (7.3%) from 2018

against fine dust.

· Power generation: 570.6 terawatt hours (TWh) in 2018 → 563.0 terawatt hours (TWh) in 2019 (1.3%↓)

·

.

· GHG emissions decreased by 3.11 million tons (5.6%) compared to 2018 due

in homes, businesses, and the public sector .

- Ministry of Environment press release, December 31, 2021

The Ministry of Environment cited fine dust measures as the basis for reducing greenhouse gas emissions at the time.

As you may remember, there was the worst fine dust storm in early 2019.

The government hastily took measures.

The problem was so serious that even the media and experts demanded a major countermeasure.

Coal-fired power plants that naturally emit a lot of fine dust have become a major target.

Emissions from manufacturing and construction fell, and fuel consumption for heating was also reduced, he wrote.

It can also be seen that there are many different layers.

It is difficult to simply explain the reason for greenhouse gas emission with nuclear power plants.

The process of emitting greenhouse gases is virtually the same as the process of creating fine dust, so it is clear that reducing fine dust can reduce greenhouse gases, and reducing greenhouse gases can reduce fine dust.

Rather, it was at this point that the Moon Jae-in administration's nuclear-free policy was criticized for losing its direction.

This is because sales of nuclear power plants increased toward the second half of his term, and the proportion of nuclear power plants did not change significantly.

In fact, the team checked the data that revealed the correlation between nuclear power plant sales and greenhouse gas, mainly papers published in academic journals, but could not find any research results that clearly explain this.

I inquired at the board of directors.

The transition committee said, "The operation rate of nuclear power plants inevitably affects the production of coal-fired power plants, which in turn affects greenhouse gas emissions. There are various causes of greenhouse gas emissions, but it is a policy to explain important grounds to the public in an easy-to-understand manner. The role of the people who make it,” he explained.

We will also verify the remarks of Kim Seong-hwan, Chairman of the Policy Committee of the Democratic Party of Korea.

Kim Seong-hwan, chairman of the policy committee, recently criticized the transition committee and said that nuclear phase out is a global trend.

It would be better to explain this part through a table.

If you look at the trend of the number of nuclear reactors in the world since 2000, you can see that they fluctuate and increase from 2013.

However, it has been on a downward trend since 2018.

This means that countries with nuclear power plants aren't building as many new ones as closed ones.

If so, what about the state of operation, construction, and closure of nuclear reactors by country in detail?

We refer to the <Nuclear Market Insight> of the Korea Energy Economics Institute.

As of April of last year, there may be errors.

At that time, there were 444 operating reactors in the world, with only 50 under construction, but close to 200 closed.

Overall, it can be seen that the number of reactors is being reduced.

What is the share of nuclear power in total electricity produced?

Please refer to the 3 graphs below.

The world standard, the OECD country standard, and the Korean standard are in that order.

Figures from Our World in Data.

Globally, and even in OECD countries, it can be seen that the share of nuclear power is decreasing.

Compared with other countries, Korea relies heavily on coal, gas, and nuclear power, with a small share of renewable energy.

This is probably the reason why people say that we should strive for energy diversification.

Referring to the above data, it is difficult to deny that nuclear phase out is a global trend.

The SBS Fact-Eun team fact-checked the briefing of the Transition Committee, which stated that greenhouse gases increased after the nuclear phase-out policy.

The figures and data are not wrong, but they point out the shortcomings of simplifying the reasons attributable to greenhouse gas emissions.

However, the explanation of the transition committee that it is difficult to deny the correlation between the nuclear power plant utilization rate and coal-fired power generation cannot be seen as completely wrong logically.

In fact, the team could not find an official study that established a clear causal relationship.

For this reason, the fact-eun team will withhold judgment on the argument of the takeover committee.

Regarding the additionally verified claim that 'the phase out of nuclear power is a global trend', the figures and data are judged to be relatively clear, and it is judged as 'generally true'.