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Do you know what 100 microseconds is?
They are the fraction of the fraction of the time that a blink lasts.
They are almost nothing, and yet
in quantum computing they are almost everything
.
It is the time that the magic of qubits lasts today, the quantum version of bits that sustains the promise of this new breed of computers.
A few microseconds of this magic were enough for Google to demonstrate the so-called supremacy of quantum computers with its Sycamore prototype: making a calculation in just over three minutes that would have taken a conventional computer 10,000 years.
This ephemeral magic is the seed of
the revolution that will come from the hand of this new technology
, according to experts: it will allow banks to better calculate the risks of certain operations and reduce interest rates;
it will give rise to hitherto unimaginable drugs to cure serious illnesses in a simple way;
It will make possible lighter batteries with greater autonomy, as well as new biodegradable plastics...
HOW QUANTUM COMPUTERS WORK
But what exactly is the quantum miracle of qubits that is getting closer to changing our world?
"The qubit is the excited state that occurs in a superconducting material when its temperature drops a lot"
, explains Manuel Pino, ComFuturo researcher at the CSIC's Institute of Fundamental Physics.
He explains it by measuring each word to avoid terminological mines that would make the definition more precise, but also more incomprehensible.
And when he finishes, he makes a second attempt: «It is a superconducting
loop
in which the current can go to the right or to the left and the quantum state is produced when it goes in both directions at the same time».
And in this possibility of the coin falling heads and tails simultaneously is where
the powerful calculation capacity of quantum computers
lies : the information encoded in a qubit allows the superposition of zeros and ones where in the classical bits there is only room for one of them. the two options.
However, this state of grace of the qubit can only be maintained for a few microseconds today, which greatly limits the development and commercialization of these computers.
"It is very difficult to make a quantum computer, because the qubits are physical objects
and any interaction with the environment makes them stop behaving as such," argues Sergio Boixo, the Spaniard who works as Google's chief scientist for Quantum Computing Theory and who led the creation of Sycamore.
"What can I do so that the quantum state doesn't disappear so quickly?"
Manuel Pino wonders.
"If you isolate the qubit, it lasts a long time, but then it's not going to talk to the qubit next to it," he replies.
And of course, these computers will not reach their true dimension until thousands and thousands of qubits can be connected to them.
These are the great pending challenges for a science that is going to profoundly transform our world, although we can still only glimpse in what direction.
"We don't know if in 10 years or 30, but it's going to be a new industrial revolution and I think it's important to be there
," says Boixo.
HUNDREDS OF BILLIONS
According to a report by the consulting firm Mckinsey, the economic impact of quantum computing will be
between 300,000 and 700,000 million dollars per year (between 272,000 and 636,000 million euros) adding the four industries that benefit most
: pharmaceuticals (between 13 and 68 billion euros), chemistry (between 18,000 and 36,000), automotive (9,000-23,000) and finance.
The latter is the field where the impact would have the greatest volume (it is an industry of 6.9 million), but it is still early to estimate it, since it is
further from a real application of quantum computing.
"By concentrating on problems of chemistry, finance, logistics...
you can already solve problems that are too complex for a conventional supercomputer
," says Enrique Solano, CEO of the Qipu Quantum company and honorary professor at Ikerbasque.
Detail of Sycamore, Google's quantum computer.
“If you change the paradigm
and accept that it is not a universal quantum computer, but rather that it attacks a specific problem
, a few hundred or a few thousand qubits would suffice”, argues this expert.
"These computers are not yet to come, but are being manufactured now," he adds.
QUANTUM SPAIN
The truth is that expectations are growing, and so is public and private interest.
An example: according to the same Mckinsey report,
private investment in quantum computing doubled in 2021 compared to 2020 to reach 1,700 million
dollars (1,544 million euros).
Another: last October, the Government announced the creation of an item of 22 million euros to promote Quantum Spain, a Spanish quantum computing ecosystem made up of 25 nodes from 14 autonomous communities, although coordinated from the National Supercomputing Center, based in Barcelona.
It is true that even
the 60 million that is expected to be reached by adding the funds raised in European initiatives
, is a figure far removed from the public investment that the leading countries in this chapter have been making (15 million dollars from China; 1,300 from the United States, 1,200 from the United Kingdom). Kingdom...) and that between France and Germany monopolize 70% of the funds to investigate quantum computing within the EU.
However, all the experts consulted consider that the bet is positive and that it could help us
position ourselves among the world leaders in a discipline in which our country has contributed to great international leaders
such as Juan Ignacio Cirac, José Ignacio Latorre or the aforementioned Sergio Boixo and Henry Solano.
"I wish Spain had been investing in this and other things for many years, but we are still on time," defends Alba Cervera, coordinator of Quantum Spain.
"This investment, together with the scientists we have, who have nothing to envy others,
puts us in a position to compete for funds in Europe and play a very relevant role
", she adds.
The responsibility that Cervera assumes at only 30 years old says a lot about the youth of quantum computing and the excellent quarry that our country has in the discipline.
"Quantum Spain is almost a miracle
that could not be seen coming anywhere," clarifies Enrique Solano.
His voice conveys pride when acknowledging that "there is an enormous amount of talent in our country and a very Spanish way of seeing quantum computing", but also bitterness when analyzing the origin of that strength:
"It has not been promoted nor does it come from government plans or strategic decisions.
Quite simply, when the Government of Spain decided to invest in quantum computing, the talent was already there.
At least in the most theoretical part and linked to the development of algorithms, software... which only requires a pen, a piece of paper and a desktop computer...
«It is evident that in Spain we are good at that part because it requires less investment
.
To make
hardware
you need more laboratories and resources”, admits Boixo.
With these wicks, what could be the role of Spain in quantum computing at an international level?
"No country or no group is going to make a complete quantum computer, because advances are needed in many different technologies and no one is going to dominate them all," argues Boixo himself.
“It would make sense for Spain to move towards a certain specialization in one part of the supply chain”
, he concludes.
TECHNOLOGICAL SOVEREIGNTY
Precisely, thinking about what place each country is going to occupy in the quantum technology industry and
what implications the resulting map is going to have in world geopolitics
is one of the crucial factors in the face of this revolution.
“It will be a proprietary technology.
When there are universal computers,
there will be countries that have them and countries that don't, like the atomic bomb
," warns Pol Forn-Díaz, a researcher at the High Energy Physics Institute and co-founder of Qilimanjaro, the first Spanish company that has set out to develop and commercialize quantum computers.
"If a country like the US develops it, forget about it selling it to you," he adds.
Enrique Solano is especially concerned about
the consequences of giving up technological sovereignty in this field
: «As close as it is, the US could turn its back on us and spy on us without problems.
It would not even be advisable to depend on France and Germany », he warns.
Because
another of the key consequences of quantum progress will be the obsolescence of all cryptography
as we know it, since it will allow any encryption to be unraveled with the astonishing ease with which Neo stopped bullets in the Matrix.
The optimization of logistics decisions, the training of the AI of the autonomous car
via
machine learning
and the micro-level simulation of substances that exist in nature for the creation of new drugs are the other territories in which these computers easily beat the classics.
In any case, Spain's advances in the discipline go hand in hand with the EU, which in 2018 launched its Quantum Flagship program with the intention of
financing research in the industrial applications of quantum physics
worth one billion euros in the following decade.
“It is good that each country looks after its own, but I find it interesting that everything is
made in Europe
and that Europe understands that
it cannot let the train pass as it did when it decided not to manufacture chips
”
, underlines Cervera.
But beyond the impact of quantum computing, the big question is when these new computers will reach homes, if at all.
"A quantum computer is like a supercomputer and I don't know anyone who has one at home because it's not necessary," explains Díaz Forn.
"To send
e-mails
, a conventional one is enough," Cervera illustrates.
The supercomputer model is the one envisaged for quantum computers in the short term and the one that will be applied to the Quantum Spain project:
large cloud computers to which companies and researchers can connect for advanced operations
.
Small computers of a few qubits are also marketed for educational, exhibition or even artistic use, but they will be the exception.
Or so, at least, the experts predict, because in technology the future is always written on the fly.
"The best applications are still unknown, as was the case with other technologies
," warns Forn-Diaz.
The importance of encouraging young talent
dropdown
JB
When it comes to quantum computing, few know that there are actually two different ways to build it
.
“The digital ones use sequences of logic gates, digital processes that are finite steps to operate on your chip, while in analog, also known as adiabatic or
annealing,
you gradually change your system from an initial state to a final state,” says Pol. Forn-Diaz.
His
startup
Qilimanjaro is already working to build and market this second type of computers
, similar to those of the Canadian company D-Wave.
"Although ours will have greater quantum coherence," he qualifies.
D-Wave accounts for 90% of the world market for quantum computers.
It has come to sell
annealers
with up to 5,000 qubits, although they are a type of analog quantum computers
(compared to the digital prototypes of Google or IBM)
capable of solving certain optimization problems by approximation, such as the most efficient routes in a logistics company, for example. example.
D-Wave computers cost up to 15 million dollars
, a figure paid by companies such as Lockheed Martin, Google or NASA.
However, D-Wave has its critics: "Although they have a lot of publicity and many qubits, they quickly lose their quantum state," says Díaz-Forn.
THE COMFUTURE PROGRAM
This type of analog quantum computers, also known as adiabatic or annealers, is also the field of work of Manuel Pino, a ComFuturo researcher at the CSIC's Institute of Fundamental Physics.
"My OraCu project precisely aims to advance the theoretical understanding of these machines and use the knowledge
derived from it to propose improvements for current technology," explains this expert, who cites an example of the fields in which he is currently researching: "We have been working on how to connect one qubit with another in such a way that it has enough freedom to implement the gates or models that you want”, he explains.
Manuel Pino is one of the
50,000 young researchers who benefit from ComFuturo, the talent attraction program promoted by the CSIC and which has financial support from private entities such as
Banco Santander
.
"The fact that companies like Banco Santander support the Comfuturo program undoubtedly contributes to the scientific improvement of our country, since it also ensures that they also take responsibility for producing quality science," acknowledges Manuel Pino gratefully. For this young researcher, it is important that the "golden age of quantum computing" encourages the initiative and ideas of young talent.
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