China News Service, March 2 (Ge Cheng) Recently, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has attracted global attention. Russia and Ukraine are important resource suppliers of neon gas, an important raw material for the chip industry, and nickel, a cathode material for batteries.
In the context of "lack of cores and less electricity", will the decline in neon gas and nickel production capacity have a lasting and far-reaching impact on the global automotive industry?
"Neon" shortage and "core" do not panic
In fact, the global automotive industry has been plagued by "lack of cores" for some time.
According to CCTV Finance, due to the impact of the epidemic, global chip production capacity has continued to decline. In addition, some dealers have stockpiled goods. Since the beginning of 2022, some automotive-grade chips have been fired from 20 yuan to thousands of yuan, and their value has risen more than 100 times.
The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has further affected the supply of neon gas, an important raw material for the production of chips, and exacerbated concerns about the decline in the production capacity of the chip industry.
Neon is an inert gas used in semiconductor lithography technology. Insufficient supply will reduce chip production and exacerbate the global core shortage situation.
According to the report of Omdia, an internationally renowned market research organization, Ukraine has companies such as Iceblick, Ingas and Cryoin, which account for more than 70% of the global supply of neon gas.
However, many chip giants are optimistic about the supply of neon gas. Samsung, SK Hynix, and Intel all said in an interview with the media that there is sufficient neon gas inventory and indicated that the outside world does not need to worry too much.
A spokesman for the lithography machine giant ASML (ASML.US) also told the media that although Ukraine is the world's largest producer of neon gas, less than 20% of the neon gas used by ASML comes from the country.
Inert gases such as neon and xenon are actually by-products of the steel industry and can be separated and produced by air separation equipment.
China is a big steel producing country.
Ren Lu, a senior analyst in China's special gas market, said that at present, domestic purification technology for these rare gases has achieved breakthroughs, and the production process is relatively mature.
Even if the relevant supply chain is interrupted, China can organize emergency production to ensure domestic supply.
The battery is in a hurry with "nickel"
Nickel, a key upstream raw material for the manufacture of power batteries for new energy vehicles, will also be affected by the situation in Russia and Ukraine.
TrendForce said that although Russia's nickel product exports are not affected for the time being, if the situation continues to deteriorate, it may affect the global nickel supply in the short term, push up nickel prices, and further increase the cost of terminals such as the electric vehicle industry pressure.
According to the data released by the United States Geological Survey (USGS) in January 2022, the global nickel mine production in 2021 will be about 2.7 million metal tons, mainly from Indonesia, the Philippines and Russia, of which the Russian nickel mine production accounts for about 9% of the global total ( Including low, medium and high grade nickel), ranked third.
Nickel is an upstream key raw material for the manufacture of electric vehicle power batteries, and is mainly used in the manufacture of ternary cathode materials in power batteries.
TrendForce believes that the market penetration rate of new energy vehicles is currently accelerating, and ternary power batteries account for nearly half of the market share, which means that the demand for upstream raw material nickel for automotive power batteries will increase.
Affected by the current situation, Shanghai nickel futures have also fluctuated upward since February 24.
In this regard, Huatai Futures said that Shanghai nickel prices rose and fell, and may still be affected by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine in the short term.
At present, nickel is still in a pattern of low inventory, strong reality and weak expectations.
In 2021, China's new energy vehicle production will account for more than half of the world's total.
TrendForce believes that under the situation of tight supply and demand, the spot market price of electrolytic nickel in China will reach 130,000-150,000 yuan per ton in 2021, and it will rise to 160,000-170,000 yuan per ton in early 2022.
In the view of the institution, the price of nickel has the possibility of subsequent rise.
According to TrendForce, the market share of high-nickel-based ternary cathode materials is increasing rapidly, and the market demand for power lithium batteries is strong. The overall nickel inventory continues to decline. Currently, the global refined nickel inventory is only 100,000 tons.
Will the price of new energy vehicles rise?
Since 2022, the news of the price increase of new energy vehicles has continued. BYD, Tesla, Xiaopeng, Volkswagen and other car companies have successively increased the prices of their new energy vehicles, and the cost pressure of chips and batteries has been gradually transmitted to consumer level.
In this round, under the combined effect of "core" shortage and "nickel" urgent, the market's expectations for the price of new energy vehicles are also gradually changing.
From the perspective of relevant institutions and experts, the impact of changes in the international situation on the price of new energy vehicles is currently unclear.
Cui Dongshu, secretary-general of the China Passenger Transport Association, previously stated publicly that problems with neon gas supply will indeed lead to a decline in chip production capacity and aggravate the global shortage of cores. possible acute supply shortages.
At present, the supply capacity of the chip industry has been greatly improved and improved.
Therefore, the impact of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict on the industry may not be severe.
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