News summary on the way home from work, Subsletter Evening.
The quarantine authorities, who were cautious about predicting the outbreak of Omicron mutation, came up with the outlook for the peak of the epidemic and explained its meaning.
The quarantine authorities predicted that the peak of the epidemic would be at the end of this month or sometime next month, and the number of new confirmed cases at the peak would be 140,000 to 270,000.
But he also said that there is no need to be too anxious.
It is noteworthy that the government publicly brought up 'endemicization'.
We will also look at the movements of the self-employed and politicians today (21st).
"Endemic Transition Process" Public Remarks
"It is necessary to undergo a process of transitioning to an 'endemic' (an infectious disease hardened into an endemic
disease) after going through a major epidemic.
These are the words of the head of the social strategy division of the accident management headquarters at the regular briefing today.
That is, the current epidemic situation should be viewed as a process for establishing Corona 19 as an endemic disease.
The point of today's briefing is to emphasize that there is no need to be overly anxious while publicly speaking about the process of endemicization.
Let's look at the rationale for the government's judgment in this way.
First of all, Omicron's severity rate was 0.38% and the fatality rate was 0.18%, which is a quarter of that of the delta mutation.
The delta mutation has a severity rate of 1.40% and a fatality rate of 0.70%.
In particular, in people under 60 years of age, the aggravation rate by Omicron was 0.03~0.08%, and the fatality rate was lower at 0~0.03% depending on the age group.
Director Young-rae Son explained, "It is twice as much (the fatality rate of Omicron) compared to the 0.05~0.1% fatality rate of seasonal flu, but it is a stable number compared to the fatality rate of 8 to 9 times that of seasonal flu at the time of the delta mutation epidemic." .
From January 16 to February 19, the fatality rate was 0.13%.
The fatality rate is quite low.
In particular, the fatality rate under the age of 50 is converging to 0.0%.
Those who have been vaccinated are considered to be less than or equal to seasonal flu.
Taking this into consideration, considering the fast propagation speed of the Omicron epidemic, the policy to contain the confirmed cases entails excessive social sacrifice.
Minimizing serious deaths, controlling and managing within the capacity of the medical system, and passing the epidemic are the most important goals.
It is necessary to go through a major epidemic at one time and transform it into an 'endemic' (an infectious disease that has hardened into an endemic disease).
In this process, it is considered that it is advantageous in Korea to proceed with omicron rather than delta.
It is important not to attach too much significance to the increase in the number of confirmed cases and severe cases and whether it is being controlled within the current medical system.
The fact that the media tone and social reaction are showing the same as in the Delta period is not very desirable in terms of having to overcome Corona 19 someday.
“From the end of this month to the next month, 140,000 to 270,000 people”
So, when will the number of new confirmed cases rise?
The Central Quarantine Countermeasures Headquarters has released the timing of the peak of the Omicron epidemic and the size of the confirmed cases, which were predicted by synthesizing the opinions of experts.
It will peak at the end of this month or in March, and a maximum of 140,000 to 270,000 confirmed cases per day can occur.
More specifically, it is predicted that the number of daily confirmed cases will exceed 170,000 from the beginning of March, and that the number of severe cases of severe disease from the current 400 will increase to more than 1,000.
The government also released a forecast on the 7th. At that time, the peak of the epidemic reached the end of this month and there were 130,000 to 170,000 confirmed cases per day, so the peak was slightly delayed and the forecast changed to a larger number of confirmed cases. .
Omicron mutation detection rate is heading towards 100%.
Let's take a look at the detection rate of omicrons for 5 weeks after becoming the dominant species last month.
50.3%→80.0%→92.1%→96.9%→98.9%3, reaching the 100% threshold.
In Jeju, the detection rate of Omicron mutation was 100% last week.
On Jeju Island, Omicron completely displaced Delta.
Changed guidelines for “full remote” possible for two weeks after school starts
The peak of the trend overlaps with the start of the new semester.
So, the Ministry of Education operates two weeks after school starts as 'adaptation week for the new semester', and during this period, it is recommended that schools at each level be flexible with shortened classes or distance classes.
Education Minister Yoo Eun-hye held a meeting of the 'New Semester Omicron Response Emergency Inspection and Support Group' meeting, which allowed local schools with concerns about infection to operate academically flexibly, such as shortening class hours, adjusting density, and distance learning.
During lunch time, we made it possible to substitute meals for distribution or with convenient meals that can shorten the meal time.
Earlier on the 7th, the Ministry of Education announced the 'New Semester Prevention and Academic Operation Plan due to the Spread of Omicron,' and greatly expanded the type of academic operation ▲ normal education activities ▲ restricted all school attendance and subject-extracurricular activities ▲ Partial attendance and partial school attendance through density adjustment Distance learning ▲ Total distance learning was divided into four categories, and the region and the school decided to set it up.
At that time, the Ministry of Education recommended that districts or schools refrain from entering remote classes, and presented indicators such as '3% of new confirmed cases of students enrolled in school' or '15% of school suspension due to confirmation/isolation' as a criterion for determining the type of school attendance. , these guidelines have changed.
Since the spread of Omicron mutation is expected to reach its peak in early March, right after the start of the new semester, it is possible to flexibly operate the undergraduate school for two weeks at the discretion of the principal, even taking full-scale remote classes into consideration.
Therefore, even if the criteria for '3% confirmed on campus and 15% for school suspension' are not met, remote classes are expected to be possible at the discretion of the principal in consideration of the local infection situation.
"Removal of business restrictions" lights up protest
On the 18th, after the announcement of easing the 'tickle' measures, the backlash from the self-employed has continued.
The 'Corona Victim Self-Employment Coalition' (Koja Chong), which consists of 14 small business groups including the Korea Food Service Federation and the Korea Entertainment and Food Industry Association, announced that they would start a light-up protest after holding a candlelight culture event at 9:30 pm at Hongik University Station in Seoul.
It is estimated that there are about 1.6 million member businesses nationwide, but it is not known how many businesses will participate in the lighting protest.
Koja Chong is demanding the abolition of business hours restrictions, etc., so I'll upload a part of the statement issued by the Koza Chong.
(..) 4. The government quarantine authorities should abolish the 'confirmed person-centered' corona control system that obliterates the right to survival of the self-employed and immediately switch to a 'severe patient-centered' quarantine system.
Only this road will guarantee the right to live of the self-employed who are standing in the backcountry.
5. KOJA Chong unconditionally demands the abolition of business hours restrictions and the payment of 100% of actual loss compensation for the self-employed.
Until these requirements are met, we declare that unlimited 'candle culture events' will be implemented at the national level.
"Excessive quarantine" Lee Jae-myung with the government
Democratic presidential candidate Lee Jae-myung is continuing to differentiate himself from the Moon Jae-in administration by promoting 'reducing social distancing'.
Candidate Jae-myung Lee held an unscheduled press conference and said, "I will establish a 'Corona Damage Emergency Relief Special Committee' as the first instruction immediately after being elected to respond quickly." Korea's response to Corona will definitely change."
Candidate Jae-myung Lee has been setting up with the government every day since the new distancing measures were announced on the 18th.
It is expected that this argument will continue in the courtroom TV debate to be held in the evening.
The People's Power side is criticizing the easing of the distance between the elected officials as it is outside the elected office.
Opposition parties are criticizing it by saying, “I think I am the king. What kind of powers do I have as soon as I am elected?”
President Moon Jae-in mentioned the O Micron quarantine at the meeting of his chief aide, saying, "We will flexibly adjust the distance at any time according to the development of the situation."
The Blue House aides explained that it had nothing to do with Candidate Jae-myung Lee's remarks, but since he was referring to the possibility of adjusting the distance, there are opinions that it is interpreted as giving strength to Candidate Jae-myung Lee.
a piece of the day
This is an image of the Gongji Stream promenade in Chuncheon, Gangwon-do.
The snowy scenery is nice to see, but it seems difficult for the citizens who come and go.