The quarantine authorities predicted that the domestic Corona 19 Omicron pandemic will reach its peak in late February or March, and that up to 140,000 to 270,000 confirmed cases per day.



The Central Quarantine Countermeasures Headquarters announced today (21st) that this was predicted as a result of synthesizing the predictions of the Corona 19 epidemic conducted by 10 domestic and foreign research institutes.



Specifically, it is predicted that the number of daily confirmed cases will exceed 170,000 from the beginning of March, and the number of severe cases of severe disease, which is currently around 400, will increase to more than 1,000 during the same period.



On the 7th, the quarantine authorities predicted that the epidemic would peak at the end of this month and the number of confirmed cases would be 130,000 to 170,000 a day, but the new forecast shows that the peak is somewhat delayed, and the number of confirmed cases at the peak is getting bigger. It happened.



With around 100,000 new confirmed cases continuing every day, last week (February 13-19), the risk of Corona 19 nationwide and in the metropolitan and non-metropolitan areas also maintained a 'high' level.



The national risk was evaluated as 'high' for five consecutive weeks from the third week of January (1.16-23) to last week.



The detection rate of Omicron, which became the dominant species last month, is also approaching 100%.



In the last 5 weeks, the detection rate of Omicron soared to 50.3%→80.0%→92.1%→96.9%→98.9%.



In the case of Jeju region, the detection rate of Omicron mutation was 100% last week.



The number of confirmed patients has been 'doubling' (the number doubles) every week for the fourth week, but the intensive care unit operation rate is maintaining a relatively stable level.



The utilization rate of beds for seriously ill patients increased from 18.6% to 27.3% in the last four weeks, but it is still in the 20% range. It has dropped significantly to the level of 34.7%.



The infection reproduction index is 1.44.



In the previous three weeks, it showed an increasing trend (1.58 → 1.60 → 1.60), and then turned to a decreasing trend last week.



The Infectious Reproduction Index is an indicator showing how many people a confirmed case infects nearby people. If it is 1 or more, it means 'spread of the epidemic', and if it is 1 or less, it means 'reduction of the epidemic'.



The severity of the disease is also declining.



In fact, as a result of comparing the severity of 67,207 people with confirmed Delta/Omicron mutation infections since December last year, the severity of Omicron was 0.38% and the fatality rate was 0.18%.



Compared to the delta mutation's severity rate of 1.40% and fatality rate of 0.70%, it is about a quarter of that.



In particular, in the younger age group under the age of 60, the rate of aggravation by Omicron was 0.03~0.08% depending on the age group, and the fatality rate was lower at 0~0.03%.



(Photo = Yonhap News)