“There will be large-scale cases that we have never experienced before.”

Jung Eun-kyung, director of the Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, said at the end of last month.

I haven't experienced the corona crisis itself, and I haven't experienced the epidemic situation in the last two years or so.

The number of confirmed cases recorded 50,000 for 6 days in a row, then skipped 60,000, 70,000, and 80,000 and went straight to 90,000.


Recently, the number of confirmed cases has doubled every Wednesday, 'Doubling'

Based on the release date of the quarantine authorities, the 'doubling' phenomenon continues, in which the number of confirmed cases doubles every Wednesday when the weekend effect disappears.

Let's look at the number of confirmed cases announced on Wednesday after the Omicron mutation became the dominant species.

January 26th 13,07 → February 2nd, 22,268 → February 9th, 49,550 → Today (16th), it was 94,43, but it’s not exactly a ‘double’ It can be seen that they are rapidly increasing at a similar scale.

Let's look at other statistics that can feel the surge in the number of confirmed cases.

From the 16th of last month to today, the number of confirmed cases in about a month is 864,895.

It accounts for 55.7% of the total cumulative confirmed cases of 15,52,000.

More than half of the domestic confirmed cases came out in the last month after the omicron mutation became the dominant species.

Since it has been switched to rapid antigen testing instead of PCR testing, it seems that there are likely to be many 'hidden infections'.




If you look at the graph, the number of severe cases or deaths is stable, but from the 8th to the 14th of this month, the incidence of critically ill patients in Korea was 6.0 per 1 million people.

France (49.0), the United States (46.3), Germany (29.5), Canada (23.7), Japan (14.6), United Kingdom (6.1), etc. This is very low compared to the incidence of

However, we have not yet reached the peak of the epidemic, and as the number of confirmed cases rises sharply, there is a possibility that the number of severe cases will surge with a time lag.

Jung Eun-kyung, director of the Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (KCDC), also came to the National Assembly on the 7th and predicted that up to 2,500 people with severe cases could be diagnosed.

The quarantine authorities are particularly concerned about the increase in the number of confirmed patients aged 60 and over.


"It is difficult to predict the peak of the trend"

I wonder when the peak of the epidemic will come and how large the number of confirmed cases will be at that time, but the government says it is difficult to predict.

Koh Jae-young, a spokesperson for the Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, explained, "The epidemic situation is rapidly changing, so more observation is needed to predict the peak time and size."

According to the predictions made by the government earlier, the peak of the epidemic will come at the end of this month, and the number of new confirmed cases at the peak was between 130,000 and 170,000. It is unclear whether this forecast will be maintained.

There are predictions from experts, but Gachon University professor Jeong Jae-hoon said that next month, the number of new confirmed cases will reach more than 200,000, making it the 'peak' of the trend.

The National Institute of Mathematical Sciences previously predicted up to 360,000 people per day early next month.

These expert forecasts are also based on the situation a few days ago and may change.


Rapid antigen test twice a week before going to school for the new semester

I am also interested in the response to quarantine in kindergartens and elementary, middle and high schools, and the Ministry of Education announced the 'additional support plan for school quarantine in response to Omicron's new semester'.

It is the content of distributing rapid antigen test kits for the new semester to students and faculty and strongly recommending that they be preemptively tested at home the day before going to school.




It is recommended that the preemptive inspection be performed once a week in the first week of March and twice a week from the second week of March.

According to the example of the Ministry of Education, the kits distributed on March 2, the first day of school, are tested once that evening, and on Friday, March 4, the kits distributed again (quantity for the second week of March) are tested twice that Sunday and the following Wednesday. It's like doing an inspection.



The self-diagnosis test results will be shared with the school by asking whether or not to take the test through the 'Self-diagnosis' app, which the Ministry of Education has been asking students to enter symptoms such as fever before going to school.

If it is tested at home and found to be positive, you must undergo a gene amplification (PCR) test at a health center screening clinic.


"Preemptive inspection, not mandatory, but strongly recommended"


Because preemptive inspection is not compulsory or compulsory, you can go to school without having to do it, and the government is emphasizing this point.

Education Minister Yoo Eun-hye explained, "The rapid antigen test kit is operated as an autonomous quarantine system and will not be mandatory for parents and students." You seem to be misunderstanding that you can only go to school after confirmation. This is not true."



Since it was a 'recommendation' rather than a mandatory inspection, the controversy of 'compulsory inspection' was avoided.

Since there are opinions that school classes should not be left in an abnormal state any longer, we switched the school quarantine and quarantine system to a school autonomous system in order to prevent infection in the school while maintaining the normal school principle as much as possible.

In addition, the education authorities explain that preemptive testing can reduce the burden of quarantine on schools.

Therefore, it is explained that if the preemptive test twice a week is established, the burden of self-investigation of contacts at the school will be greatly reduced, and in particular, the burden of rapid antigen testing 3 times in 7 days for asymptomatic students and staff among contacts will be reduced.


What is the actual quarantine effect?

Although the controversy of 'forced inspection' was avoided, the question remains about how effective the quarantine will be.

If you can go to school without taking the test, you can skip the test if you have no symptoms or if the self-diagnosis test is difficult because you are young.

In addition, the accuracy of the rapid antigen test kit is also reduced.

For the Ministry of Education, it would be a task to increase the effectiveness of quarantine, but Minister Yoo Eun-hye is of the view that there is no need to worry.

Minister Yoo said, "I do not think that it is not effective because it is not forced. I decided that checking one's health in advance can be used as a minimum safety device." We ask for your cooperation so that if we work together, our children can return to school safely and more quickly."


a piece of the day


Liberation Chairman Kim Won-woong, who has been accused of embezzling proceeds, has resigned, and some liberation members are demanding an arrest investigation.

The photo is of a press conference calling for an arrest investigation.