Ukraine has been targeted by several cyberattacks in recent weeks as tension increases between Kyiv and Moscow.
The cyber weapon is the subject of many questions because it is quite new in the geopolitical game.
20 Minutes
deciphers with two experts the point of tensions in the cyber field.
For Rayna Stamboliyska, cybersecurity consultant, “this is one of the first times that digital technology has entered the war game.
»
As tensions continue to grow on Ukraine's borders, "there is no certainty about what Russia plans to do", NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg said on Friday 28 January.
An assertion that is just as valid on the ground – with the possibility of sabotage, invasion or even a putsch in certain regions of Ukraine – as for the cyber domain.
While there is a lack of evidence to attribute responsibility to Moscow, digital incidents have recently hit Ukraine, including a massive cyberattack targeting government sites
in mid-January.
“There are different reasons for cyber-maliciousness.
For the moment, it is impossible to say that the species of ransomware which affected Ukrainian government sites came from the Russians, in particular because the intentions are not clear, analyzes Rayna Stamboliyska, specialist in digital diplomacy and consultant in cybersecurity.
It's one of the first times that digital has insinuated itself into the war
game
.
»
An opinion shared by Gérôme Billois, cybersecurity expert at the firm Waveston, who also notes that Ukraine very quickly designated its Russian opponent as the responsible.
Too quickly, perhaps: “When the announcement is so prompt, we move into the geopolitical, even military game.
In other words, with so little hindsight on the situation and so little time for cyber-investigation,
a fool's game is set up: “We know that cyberattackers love to pretend to be others.
There are false flag attacks.
It's a typical wartime disinformation technique, ”he says.
“As with Covid-19, digital is a world based on doubts”
“There are no technical means to identify who is behind a harmful cyber event.
There is starting to be research on the confirmation of models, but a lot of data and hindsight on the means used and the evolutions are needed, ”says Rayna Stamboliyska, who defines herself as a consultant in the management of uncertainty.
“As with Covid-19, digital is a world based on doubts.
»
Doubts, but also some certainties.
Since the rise of tensions between Ukraine and Russia a few years ago, cybercrime has changed a lot, both in terms of means and targets.
"I'm not sure that in 2021, Russian gangs were still targeting financial institutions", illustrates the cybersecurity specialist.
Banks which were nevertheless, a few years ago, the traditional targets of cybercrime.
"We have diversified the portfolio of attacks," she says.
A diversification which is explained in particular by the evolution of malicious means: “Many attacks at one time passed through Web browsers”.
But today, with the advent of mobile uses, there has been a proliferation of vulnerable targets.
And on the side of the Russian "troll farms" too, there has been movement: from isolated and poorly organized hackers, cybercrime has migrated towards a very professional system where the structures are closer to "VSEs-SMEs or start-ups". specialists,” adds Rayna Stamboliyska.
“At REvil, there were at least ten developers, not counting the members who deal with support functions, after-sales service or even marketing.
»
Cyber attacks are now part of military doctrines
The cybercriminal group REvil, precisely, it was discussed at the beginning of January, with the arrest by Russia of 14 alleged hackers.
But this dragnet and Russia's desire to give international pledges does not seem to really weigh in the diplomatic balance.
And how do you know if these types of Russian cybercriminals are playing a role in 'hybrid warfare'
between Russia and Ukraine – and more broadly the members of NATO?
“We have a definite information mess, not just
fake news
.
But is it significant?
asks Rayna Stamboliyska.
For Gérôme Billois, the body of concordant indices – “we do work similar to that of the scientific police” – leads us to believe that the cyber weapon will be decisive in the conflict between Ukraine and Russia.
“We know that belligerent countries have significant cyber capabilities and that they have already used them in the past.
He mentions the NotPetya cyberattack which had first hit Ukraine before spreading, but also BlackEnergy, a malicious software, which the United States had attributed to Russia, and which had succeeded in cutting off the electricity in the Kyiv region in 2015-2016.
“Today, the United States and the United Kingdom are calling
operators of sensitive infrastructure on site so that they can secure themselves in an emergency,” adds the expert.
The question of response
But are these cyberattacks and the suspicions against Russia sufficient to justify Western intervention in support of Ukraine?
"
By not setting a threshold during its change of course this summer on cybercrime, NATO remained vague.
Joe Biden must specify on what basis the organization can decide on a cyber intervention.
It can't be done with a wet finger."
Added to these uncertainties is the status of Ukraine, which is not a member of NATO.
So there is no framework.
“Today, we have understood that the cyber weapon is a lever for waging war, but it remains to be determined under what conditions and for what purposes”, summarizes Rayna Stamboliyska.
Unfortunately it is very rare that the protagonists in times of war reflect and analyze before using a potentially formidable weapon.
The victims of sarin gas, especially during the Syrian conflict or in the Tokyo metro, are no longer there to testify.
History, yes.
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War
Cybersecurity
By the Web
World
Russia
Cybercriminality
Conflict
Ukraine
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