It is the bête noire of central banks, the consumer's nightmare: inflation, or the loss of the purchasing power of money which leads to a general increase in prices.

According to the first Eurostat estimate published on Tuesday, November 30, the inflation rate in the euro area reached a record level of 4.9% over one year, a first since 1991.

The figure may seem impressive, but central bankers and economists have agreed for several months that the phenomenon, linked to the end of the health crisis and the soaring energy prices, should not last.

"If we do not take into account the price of energy, inflation falls to 2.5% in the euro zone", explains to France 24 Stéphanie Villers, author of "Economic crisis 2020: towards a new world ? ".

For the economist, "this figure shows that inflation seems more under control than at first glance."

"Developed countries are indeed experiencing unusual rates compared to the deflationary trends of the last ten years, but this remains fairly contained rates," confirms Rémi Bourgeot, researcher at IRIS and specialist in globalization.

Especially since the price of the barrel finally unscrews.

It has fallen by 20% since mid-October because the epidemic resumption in Europe and the discovery of the Omicron variant weighs on the demand for black gold and on economic activity.

Finally, this record inflation must also be put into perspective.

The comparison with 2020, the year when the pandemic upset all sectors of the economy, is distorted.

Compared with 2019, inflation in the euro zone is only 2.3% year-on-year.

"The risk of persistent inflation"

The situation is therefore under control according to the European Central Bank (ECB), which maintains its official target at 2% next year.

"Supply will gradually catch up with demand. Markets anticipate lower energy prices next year," said the ECB.

However, the fear of lasting inflation is winning over people's minds.

On Tuesday, Jerome Powell, the head of the American central bank (Fed), judged that the time had come to stop talking about temporary inflation in the United States, as he had yet presented it for months.

"Clearly, the risk of persistent inflation has increased," admitted the central banker before a Senate committee, causing stock market indices in New York to fall.

Across the Atlantic, price increases are at their highest for 31 years.

To calm things down, the Fed will use the two levers at its disposal: put an end to its asset buyback policy and no doubt raise its interest rates from mid-2022.

But central banks' room for maneuver is low, according to Stéphanie Villers.

"In the event of a surge in commodity prices, measures taken by central banks will not reverse the trend."

In short, raising interest rates will not resolve the imbalances between supply and demand, soaring transport costs or the shortage of labor, which has been disrupting supply chains for several months.

>> To read: The recovery of the global economy delayed by unprecedented shortages

Faced with the uncertainty linked to the waltz of the Covid-19 variants, central banks seem to have underestimated the persistence of these supply problems.

"We must not lose sight of the fact that in Asia, some countries still have zero Covid strategies," recalls to France 24 Charles-Henri Colombier, financial analyst at Rexecode.

"In the event of contamination, there may be closures of ports or factories. The fact that the Covid is still there partly contributes to the tensions over supplies and inflation."

"Many economic schemes have become obsolete because they were based on very low transport costs", specifies Rémi Bourgeot.

"Today, in textiles, there is no longer any question of producing in Bangladesh. We look more in Egypt or Turkey, it changes the industrial logic a lot."

Inflation-wage loop

Central banks are therefore groping in the hope that inflation will eventually subside in 2022 thanks to the fall in energy prices.

But can we really count on this drop to keep inflation under control?

The question deserves to be asked as the energy transition changes the balance.

"The increase in the share of renewables in the energy mix means that electricity production is much more sensitive to climatic hazards. The lack of wind in Northern Europe to operate the wind turbines and the drought have contributed to a six-fold increase. gas and electricity prices compared to normal ", assures Charles-Henri Colombier.

In addition, other factors could allow the rise in prices to play the prolongations and make this transient shock a long-term phenomenon.

Thus, some economists fear that rising prices and labor shortages will lead to more and more wage demands.

The risk is to trigger an inflationary spiral with an uncontrollable "price-wage" loop: if wages increase, companies increase their prices and so on.

Germany recently led the way.

The new ruling coalition announced a 22% hike in the minimum wage.

Enough to inspire the unions and workers who demand an increase in wages in France and Spain, a country in which major social movements have started in the metallurgy and transport sector.

Nevertheless, wages have not yet increased significantly in the world and for the moment, no inflation-wage loop is looming on the horizon.

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