It is a costly success.

Russia succeeded in destroying, Monday, November 15, one of its own satellites by launching an anti-satellite missile.

But by destroying the spacecraft, tens of thousands of debris were generated in an area not far from the International Space Station (ISS), causing its international crew to fear the worst.

The seven people - four American astronauts and one German, two Russian cosmonauts - had to prepare for a possible emergency evacuation, a collision with one of these pieces of satellite being capable of damaging the science station.

Missiles "essential in Russian military doctrine"

The ISS escaped the disaster. But Moscow still drew Washington's wrath. "Russia behaved irresponsibly," responded Anthony Blinken, the US Secretary of State. "I am scandalized," said Bill Nelson, the boss of NASA, for his part, before adding that it was "unthinkable that Russia would endanger not only American astronauts and international partners in the ISS, but also its own cosmonauts ".

It was not just the cold sweats of the inhabitants of the ISS that prompted US officials to react so strongly.

From now on, more than 15,000 orbital debris "will threaten, for decades to come, satellites and other space objects vital to the security, economy and scientific interests of other nations," Blinken lamented, adding that states -Unis were considering an "answer" to this test.

With this test, Moscow therefore took the risk of further degrading already very strained relations with Washington to destroy an old satellite which has not been operational since 1984, summarizes the American astronomer Jonathan McDowell on Twitter. 

What to judge that the game was perhaps not worth the candle? This ignores the extent to which "anti-satellite missiles are essential in Russian military doctrine", underlines Alexandre Vautravers, security and armaments expert and editor-in-chief of the Swiss Military Review (RMS), contacted by France 24.

Moscow - like Washington - has been working on this type of weapon since the early 1970s, in the midst of the Cold War. Research on these missiles began "around the time of the signing of the Treaty on Outer Space and the Regulation of Armaments (1967), which established the principle of the ban on leaving weapons in space. ", points out Alexandre Vautravers. The Americans and the Soviets quickly realized that if one of the two powers took the ascendancy in space, the only way to oppose it, in the event of open conflict, would be to use missiles sent from Earth. . 

The geopolitical context may well have changed with the end of the Cold War, but the situation for Moscow remains the same: in space, the United States is the kings with its network of military and civilian communication and espionage satellites.

"This supremacy worries Russia a lot", recognizes Gustav Gressel, specialist in Russian military questions at the European Council for International Relations, contacted by France 24.

Better protect Moscow

Spy and observation satellites are indeed valuable "military force multipliers", explains Alexandre Vautravers.

All the information that these space surveillance cameras can provide provides strategic advantages (on the topology of the terrain, the position of the troops, the weather conditions) which can prove to be decisive in the event of conflict.

At the same time, "the Russian military considers that these satellites also constitute one of the Achilles heels of American military power", adds Gustav Gressel.

For good reason, defending such a network in space is much more complex than protecting land. 

Russia therefore wants to prove that it is "capable of defying American technological leadership by demonstrating that, if necessary, it is possible for it to neutralize this information superiority", summarizes Alexandre Vautravers.

This missile test is the space equivalent of nuclear deterrence.

It is also a sign sent to Russian public opinion because these weapons are the central component of one of the flagship defense programs of the Russian army: the Nudol weapons system (named after a river in the region from Moscow).

"It is a program under development. Its aim is to design a new defense system to protect the Russian capital as a priority in the event of ballistic missile attacks [nuclear or not]," explains Gustav Gressel.

In other words, these anti-satellite missiles are not only used to destroy satellites but "they are the same ones which will be used to try to intercept and destroy enemy ballistic missiles which would target Moscow", specifies the researcher of the European Council for them. international relationships.

Monday's test was thus the first demonstration of their effectiveness in hitting a moving target.

So, of course, a satellite is slower and therefore easier to hit than a ballistic missile in full swing, but this is a first step. 

China and India in ambush

This demonstration, however, risks giving ideas to other powers. The world is going through a new "arms race", and the ability to neutralize satellites is one of them. Besides Russia and the United States, two other countries - India and China - have developed anti-satellite missiles. The Indian program is still in its infancy, while that of the "Chinese is very secret", notes Gustav Gressel.

Beijing had already been slapped on the fingers by the international community after a shot that destroyed a Chinese satellite in 2007, causing the creation of more than 40,000 space debris.

Since then, the first Asian power has been discreet in the matter, especially since it is developing in parallel less destructive methods to neutralize satellites "such as laser fire, cyber attacks or microwave rays which can damage the electrical circuits of these satellites ", continues Gustav Gressel.

But, for the Russians, nothing beats a missile which has the advantage of definitively settling the fate of the satellite.

"With a cyberattack or a laser shot, we are never sure of having permanently neutralized the system or of having reached the right components", specifies the researcher.

If others agree with the Russian opinion, thus leading to an increase in tests of such missiles to prove that none of these powers are lagging behind, debris risks accumulating making space more and more more dangerous for anything other than demonstrations of military force.

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