This is one of the paradoxes of this return to school.

As demand skyrockets after a year marked by health restrictions linked to the Covid-19 epidemic, factories around the world are failing to keep up.

Wood, steel, paper, iron: they've been lacking everything this summer and the situation does not seem to be getting any better.

Of all the sectors, the automotive sector is the most affected by these supply difficulties.

In question, the shortage of semiconductors, this material become essential for the current cars, very dependent on electronics.

In France, several factories have been forced to close their doors.

Thus, that of Toyota in Onnaing (North), which manufactures the Yaris, delayed its resumption of production from August 23 to September 6.

The same goes for Stellantis.

The group, born from the merger between PSA and Fiat Chrysler, this week extended production stoppages in several of its car factories in Europe, due to shortages of electronic components from Asia.

As for the Renault group, it will partially stop production at its assembly plants in Spain for a maximum period of two months by the end of the year.

>> To see: "Semiconductor war: chips that reshuffle geopolitical maps"

In Germany, a country where the automotive sector plays a major role in the economy, delivery delays are piling up and manufacturers' difficulties are weighing on the recovery. Thus, according to a survey by the American firm IHS Markit, manufacturing activity is at its lowest for six months across the Rhine. "Production growth is now slower than new orders to an extent not seen in more than 25 years of data collection," said Phil Smith, economist at IHS Markit.

Shortages are also plaguing British businesses.

Symbol of these supply difficulties, the emblematic pubs are no longer able to offer certain brands of beer to their customers, a consequence of the Covid-19 pandemic but also of Brexit, which made it difficult for the United Kingdom to enter the United Kingdom. truck drivers from Eastern European countries.

A crisis mult

i

f

actorial

This unprecedented situation is partly explained by a "mismatch between supply and demand", analyzes Line Rifai, economy columnist at France 24. "With the relaxation of health measures, demand for many goods has jumped, factories then sought to increase the rate of their production and buy more components and spare parts, far more than the quantity available. "

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In the case of the semiconductor shortage, there are also cyclical accidents, such as the fire at a production site in Japan or the closure of a factory in Malaysia due to a new wave of Covid contamination. -19.

In addition, the strong demand for consumer electronics, linked in particular to teleworking, also penalized the automotive sector.

"There has been a dramatic transformation in demand. In the United States, purchases of durable goods like computers increased 30% in the first half of the year compared to the same period in 2019. No one could have predicted that." , says economist Denis Ferrand, director general of the Rexecode research institute, joined by France 24.

>> To read also: "Car manufacturers, poor relatives of the flea race at the time of Covid-19"

Finally, logistics chains are still struggling to get back into working order, in particular because of the lack of manpower.

"The global supply chain was based on precarious workers, who were dismissed at the start of the pandemic and have since converted or moved on to something else", details Rémi Bourgeot, economist and associate researcher at Iris, joined by France 24 . "It was a system that worked just in time and the Covid-19 has come to put a big kick in this ant-hill of globalization. We see today that it is very complicated to put back to work."

Towards a price increase?

These supply difficulties inevitably lead to an increase in production costs for manufacturers, who are tempted to transfer them to the price charged to consumers. For the moment, however, the rise in the price of manufactured products remains relatively limited.

"In reality, the cash flow of French companies has been strengthened during the health crisis," explains Denis Ferrand, who mentions the aid and loans guaranteed by the State which have supported their financial health during the various lockdowns. According to the economist, some companies could therefore take advantage of this advantage to maintain stable prices and gain new market share. "They will be able to cope with these shortages and will be able to bear the additional cost linked to the supply difficulties. They have no imperative to increase prices."

For the moment, it is difficult to know how long this situation will last for companies.

"It is a planning crisis at all levels of the global industrial structure. All of this is linked to the unpredictability of the evolution of the pandemic", analyzes Rémi Bourgeot.

However, one can imagine that the restrictive measures will be less and less restrictive and therefore less hamper world production and trade in the months to come. "

Encouraging signs indeed suggest the beginning of an easing with a slight decline in metal prices.

"Opinion surveys among manufacturers also show an improvement in delivery times from their suppliers", assures Denis Ferrand, "even if they are still considered too long".

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