Despite the 4th level of social distancing, the number of confirmed cases of Corona still crosses the 2,000 mark.
Just a month ago, the government had predicted that "if this trend continues, the number could rise to 2,300 by mid-August."
This was a simulated value on the premise of the infection reproduction index ('R value') 1.22, which quantifies how many people an infected person transmits the virus to.
It was also a number assuming that the situation was well controlled.
At the time, the Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (KCDC) Director Jeong Eun-kyung predicted, "If the spread of radio waves is strongly controlled, it will continue to increase and decrease at the current level for about two weeks and then decrease to about 600 people by the end of August."
Although the situation is not heading towards the worst, it has become difficult to expect '600 people at the end of August'.
On the afternoon of Friday, the 13th, ahead of the weekend, Commissioner Jeong Eun-kyung worried about the post-Liberation Day holiday, saying, "We have prevented the exponential increase, but it is not yet the peak of this trend."
K quarantine 3T model...Is it okay as it is?
So far, the K quarantine model has been centered on '3T'.
Last year, when the corona virus spread around the world, the model received worldwide acclaim.
However, with the advent of vaccines and mutated viruses, it became a different game.
Delta mutations infect and spread in a very short time.
Delta mutation cannot be controlled by individual follow-up and isolation of confirmed cases.
This is not to say that follow-up is useless.
It is a story that, even if confirmed, do not consume health capacity by holding on to healthy people who pass by without any symptoms, but focus more on finding high-risk groups (old age, underlying diseases, etc.) among close contacts and managing them so that they do not fall into serious condition. .
Although it will be explained several times below, many experts are arguing that the current 3T model, which focuses on locating and isolating an infected person regardless of the presence or severity of symptoms, should be reorganized to focus on severe and death.
This is because the delta mutation has very different characteristics from the virus that was prevalent at the beginning of last year when the 3T model was effective.
Vaccination graph surged in the second quarter… What's going on behind the scenes?
Just last year, the government was not in a hurry to secure a vaccine.
Government advocates defended the government by making arguments such as 'It's not too late to buy after seeing what other countries are doing' and 'Pfizer-Moderna is expensive'.
Some so-called 'experts' who made such claims entered the Blue House.
Obtaining a vaccine after other countries have already wiped out Pfizer-Modern supplies, as we all know, was usually not difficult.
Korea's vaccination completion rate is still the lowest among 38 OECD countries.
Among developing countries, there are many countries with a higher vaccination completion rate than Korea.
Although Japan is said to have over 20,000 confirmed cases per day since the Olympics, the proportion of those who have completed the vaccination among the population is 35.7%, which is more than double that of Korea.
In the same Asia, Singapore boasts a vaccination completion rate of nearly 67%.
In some states in the interior of the United States, there are many people who are not vaccinated, and the spread of the delta mutation is raging.
There are a lot of people who get their tongues pulled when they see such reports.
However, even in those states in the United States, the completion rate of vaccination is much higher than that of Korea.
What card could the government use in this situation?
The graphs above show the percentage of people who completed the second round of vaccination.
However, if you look at the graphs of those who only got the 1st out of the 2nd round, a slightly different picture emerges.
In this graph, Korea ranks quite high.
Notwithstanding, most OECD countries have already significantly boosted their 'complete' rates, and unless they refuse to be vaccinated for some other reason, most of them are vaccinated.
Strategies to increase the number of inoculations from the first
In Korea, 15.6% of those who have completed the vaccination and 26.5% of those who have only completed the first vaccination are far more numerous than those who have only received the first dose.
(Some say that the inoculation rate is 42% combined.) This is an unusual pattern compared to other countries.
If you look at Japan, which is leading and lagging behind us in vaccine performance, as of the 11th, 35.7% of those who completed the vaccination were 12.2% of the first, and the proportion of those who completed the vaccination is much higher.
In most OECD countries, the proportion of those who have completed the vaccination is much higher than that of those who have only received the first dose.
Comparing the inoculation graphs of Japan and Korea, there is a striking point.
The graph below shows the percentage of the population who have been vaccinated at least once.
Unlike the Japanese graph, which slopes upward at a constant slope, the Korean graph sharply bends up in late May and then rapidly slows down in the 4th week of June.
Why did this graph appear?
It seems that it was because the amount of possible quantity was drawn as much as possible during this time and was put into increasing the number of primary inoculations.
The graph below shows the vaccines vaccinated in Korea by type.
At the same time as the graph above, you can see that the line pointing to the AZ vaccine in the graph below sharply bends in a similar fashion.
The second AZ vaccination will only happen in the fall, and there is no m-RNA vaccine right now, so the sound of 'vaccine barley head' is coming out.
It is no different from 'blocking' by paying credit card debt with several credit cards in a household that does not have enough money for a living.
In any case, if the number of people who received the vaccine at least once was increased and the spread was managed with appropriate social distancing, the situation would improve as the Moderna vaccine, which the president secured himself, and Pfizer's supply came in.
This is not something to be criticized as a trick.
The strategy of extending the interval between vaccinations to overcome the period of low vaccine supply was the same method the UK used when the situation was bad earlier this year.
This method worked to some extent until the alpha mutation from the UK.
Although the government may not have intended it, if the number of 'inoculation rate' was aggregated without dividing the first and second rounds, there was a side effect that seemed to have resolved the supply and demand of vaccines to some extent.
By the way…
Delta mutation exploded.
And, Moderna punked.
Delta mutation spread… It is difficult to prevent it by increasing the first dose
At the beginning of this month, the government was unwavering in its policy to stop the increase in the number of confirmed cases by increasing the number of primary vaccinations as much as possible.
President Moon Jae-in's remarks at the Blue House senior and aides meeting on the 2nd demonstrate this well.
36 million, or 70% of South Korea's population. Why 70%? This is because the existing theory of 'herd immunity' believes that if 70% of group members gain immunity, the rest of the population can also be protected.
The problem is the delta mutation of the coronavirus. The government has implemented a policy to increase the number of people receiving the first dose by 70%, believing that the first dose alone will secure some immunity.
The New England Journal of Medicine (NEJM), a world-renowned academic journal, recently published a study from Oxford University that showed that both Pfizer and AZ did not properly prevent delta mutation infection with the first dose alone.
The research team concluded that the completion of two doses in the high-risk group should be increased as much as possible.
SBS medical reporter Cho Dong-chan, who reported on the results of this study, said, "When the vaccination is completed, the effect of preventing the progression to severe disease is greater for the delta mutation than for the alpha mutation."
The results of an analysis of the current status of delta mutations in the 50s and older by the Central Clinical Committee for Emerging Infectious Diseases in Korea were similar. The number of patients with severe gastritis was the lowest in their 80s, and the number increased as they descended into their 50s. This was precisely inversely proportional to the vaccination completion rate, the committee said. There are still many people in their 50s who have not completed the vaccination, so there are many cases of severe cases worsening after being infected. Seoul National University professor Kwon Yong-jin
told SBS 8 News, "In
a situation where the delta mutation is prevalent, it is more important to quickly complete the second dose for those classified as high-risk than to complete the first dose for everyone
."
Corona virus is dangerous in itself, but since it consumes a lot of various medical resources such as medical equipment in the ward, it can make it difficult even for severe patients with other general diseases. The risk of so-called 'medical collapse' increases. If you look at the cumulative data from the beginning of the corona virus to the present, the fatality rate is higher as the age group increases.
However, the vaccination completion rate for those aged 60 to 74 is still low.
As of the 8th, the completion rate of vaccinations over 80 years old was 87.39%, but only 42.35% in their 70s and 8.99% in their 60s.
The 60-74 year old vaccination was resumed only on the 12th of this week.
This is because, as explained earlier, the 2nd vaccination period was delayed and the amount of the 1st vaccination was pulled back.
The problem of increasing vaccination seems difficult to solve in the short term.
Moderna does not have its own production facilities and we have no real means to press Moderna.
The competitor is a small company, but it is a super powerhouse in the supplier market.
In the midst of this, the Korean government delegation went to Moderna headquarters to meet with the management, but we have to wait and see what practical results other than being told, 'I'm sorry, I will do well in the future'.
▲ Deputy Minister of Health and Welfare Kang Do-tae departing for negotiations with Moderna yesterday (13th)
What should be noted here is Japan's response.
The Japanese government announced on the 20th of last month that it had reached an agreement with Moderna to import an additional 50 million doses of vaccine for next year.
It is the business physiology of companies that have no choice but to supply larger customers with priority when orders are rushed from the perspective of a company that lacks the quantity that can be manufactured.
It is fortunate that the government signed a contract with Pfizer for the amount of mRNA vaccines to be used for booster vaccination next year.
Jung Eun-kyung, head of the Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (KCDC), said on the 13th that it has completed a contract with Pfizer for 30 million doses of the vaccine, and there is a provision to receive an additional 30 million doses if necessary.
We will have to do everything we can to ensure that even next year's volume arrives in Korea as per contract.
The second inoculation pushed back... effect is no problem
Due to modernity or supply and demand disruptions, schedules for those who need a second dose of the mRNA vaccine have been pushed back.
The inoculation interval set by the mRNA vaccine manufacturer is 3 weeks for Pfizer vaccine and 4 weeks for Moderna vaccine, but this has been pushed from 6 to 8 weeks.
The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) recommends that, whenever possible, the Pfizer vaccine should be given 21 days (3 weeks) after the first dose, and Moderna should be given 28 days (4 weeks) after the first dose.
However, under the unavoidable circumstances, both vaccines are announcing that "the second vaccination may be delayed until 42 days (6 weeks) of the first vaccination."
In other words, if it is possible to use it as designed and tested in the first place, the intended effect can be seen.
The longer the period between the first and second doses, the greater the risk of infection in the interim without sufficient immunity.
The government has not considered the shift in quarantine policy, 'yet'
For the various reasons explained so far, there are growing calls to change the stance of the quarantine policy. Rather than 'the number of confirmed cases', it is necessary to focus on the completion of the second dose of the high-risk group for 'prevention of severe severity/death', and change it to a realistic direction to manage risks while coexisting with the corona virus for most healthy people. It is the so-called 'With Corona'.
According to the current standard of determining whether or not the diagnosis is confirmed regardless of the severity of symptoms, even if 70% of Koreans have completed vaccination, a fifth pandemic could come again in terms of the number of confirmed cases. Because delta is not the end of the mutation. It may not be possible to deviate from the current stage 4 for a long time. People who die economically due to business failure, not Corona, will emerge as a bigger social problem.
Some experts say that the current level 4 is not so thorough that it has not been effective in preventing the spread, and that stronger distancing measures will have to be taken now to control the situation. The objection to this is also not strong. Cho Dong-chan, a medical reporter, says:
"The current social distancing is the concept of staying for a long time and limiting meeting with people. However, the delta mutation breaks the premise of that concept. It is because it is infected even in such a short time.
Delta mutation cannot be followed by current epidemiological studies. There is a growing need to change all current concepts, such as self-quarantine at living treatment centers.
… .Now, the only stronger measures left are, in effect, Shut down (everyone closes their doors) and Lock down (No one walks around and stays at home). If you do that, the infection will decrease for the first time, but experts are of the opinion that if it is released in two weeks, it will explode again. It's just delaying for a while. If so, shutdown or lockdown must be maintained for a considerable period of time, which incurs greater social and economic damage than infectious diseases. (Newsroom 'The Immaculate Tower')
The government drew the line that it has not yet considered such a policy paradigm shift. A lot of preliminary reviews and political decisions are needed to change the foundation of the policy being implemented after the presidential report is completed. Another question is who will be held accountable if the changed policy does not work. Even experts do not deny that reality. The Central Clinical Committee for Novel Infectious Diseases
suggested that
the premise for changing the policy to 'coexistence with Corona' is
'the time when Corona 19 is more deadly than the flu and chronic disease patients over the age of 50 are vaccinated'
.
In the end, the problem that comes and goes is securing a vaccine. Breaking news broke out on Friday afternoon as we were finalizing the composition of this content. Those in their 30s or older will be able to apply for the AstraZeneca (AZ) residual vaccine again as before. People in their 30s and 40s could get the AZ residual vaccine if they wanted to. As a result, the policy was changed so that only those in their 50s or older could receive the AZ vaccine → Pfizer vaccination for those in their 50s or older → Pfizer’s supply was insufficient and AZ was discarded.
The AZ vaccine is also a good weapon to fight the spread of the delta mutation, but it is difficult to avoid criticism that the government has damaged trust in the vaccine by changing the vaccination age for six months without sufficient explanation. If the number of vaccines is insufficient, they can be brought in later.
(Composition: Senior Correspondent Lee Hyun-sik, Reporter Jang Seon-i, Kim Hwi-ran Editor / Designer: Myung Ha-eun, Lee Ji-soo)