<Anchor>



There have been several times when the number of corona patients has risen sharply, but if you increase the level of distance and follow the quarantine rules, it will subside in a short time. However, this fourth trend is different. The number of patients is high and the duration is getting longer, but the problem is that we haven't reached the peak yet.



Medical reporter Yoo Seung-hyeon and medical reporter Cho Dong-chan will tell you why the fourth wave is getting longer and when it will peak.



<Medical Reporter Yoo Seung-hyun>



This is a sister church in Daegu where the group infection occurred.



Members of various churches gathered to engage in religious activities, and the number of confirmed cases increased to 179.



Most of them are delta mutations.



In Seoul, delta mutations were found in 11 out of 19 indoor sports facilities where the cluster infection occurred.



The delta mutation, which is 2.4 times stronger than the previous virus, is the biggest cause of the fourth pandemic.



[Park Hyang/Central Accident Control Headquarters Head of Prevention: The delta mutation has a large transmission power and has a strong initial infectivity, so it is difficult to block the transmission.] The



detection rate of the delta mutation, which was less than half three weeks ago, has now exceeded 70%.



As the delta mutation becomes the dominant species, breakthrough infections that are transmitted after vaccination are also increasing.



Last week, there were 56 confirmed cases at a nursing hospital in Busan, and 49 were breakthrough infections.



The increase in travel during the holiday season is also a factor in the spread.



Last month, the 4th stage in the metropolitan area and the 1st and 2nd stage in the non-metropolitan area were spread among regions under different quarantine standards.



[Kwon Jun-wook/Director of the National Institute of Health (last month 26th): As the balloon effect and the increase in the amount of travel during the holiday season, the trend turned to increase mainly in large cities and travel areas in non-metropolitan areas… .] In addition,



the rate of infection through individual contact with a confirmed person in daily life has also risen to 52%.



The first epidemic centered on the Shincheonji Daegu Church, the second epidemic that spread through churches and Liberation Day meetings, and the third epidemic were mainly infections in nursing homes and correctional facilities.



Another type of this fourth wave seems to be longer and more difficult than the previous ones.



(Video shooting: Kim Min-cheol, video editing: So Ji-hye, CG: Seo Seung-hyun·Jang Seong-beom)



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<Cho Dong-chan, medical reporter> This



is a graph of the 4th pandemic in Korea.



The 4th wave It started here, and it rose sharply, and then fell slightly from the 27th of last month to the last 4 days.



Then, it suddenly started to rise again, which is analyzed to be due to the full-fledged holiday season.



You can guess how far it will go if you look at the countries that started the 4th pandemic earlier than Korea.



In the UK, Pandemic 4 started in May, but it came down from its peak at the end of July two and a half months ago.



A study by Johns Hopkins University in the United States found that it would take two to two and a half months to reach the peak of the fourth pandemic, led by the delta mutation.



Then, the peak is predicted from the end of August to mid-September in Korea.



How much will the number of domestic patients increase until the peak, and the population structure of each country is different, so let's analyze the number of patients based on the population of 1 million.



The slope of the 4th pandemic in Korea is not steeper than that of Israel and the UK.



However, if the current uptrend continues, it could exceed 5,000 a day.



However, if it is broken again like in early August, it can block less than 3,000 people a day.



However, it is insufficient right now, so it may take about a week or so to accumulate more information to make an accurate prediction.



<Anchor> The



story of reporter Dongchan Cho is that up to 5,000 people can come out in a day. But now, when we compare the UK and Israel, which we gave earlier examples, we have lower vaccination rates, doesn't that mean that the number can be higher than the number we talked about earlier?



<Cho Dong-chan, medical reporter> What



I just calculated is based on the current trend, and if Korea's vaccination rate is late and the rate of spread accelerates more, it could be much higher than what we just calculated. That is why, above all else, the speed of vaccination is important.



(CG: Jeong Hyeon-jeong)