<Anchor> With the



current trend, the number of confirmed cases per day is likely to exceed 2,000 soon, and there are other opinions about continuing strong quarantine measures.



Medical reporter Cho Dong-chan reports what the domestic infectious disease expert group is paying attention to.



<Reporter> This is



a graph of the average number of confirmed cases per week.



The steep increase was slightly dampened on the 15th, and from the 22nd, it was slightly but further weakened.



This is the basis for an optimistic analysis that will soon pass the peak of the early 2000s and then decrease.



However, it is predicted that about 1,500 people a day will occur for the time being.



The pessimistic outlook comes from the highly contagious delta mutation.



The estimated rate of delta mutation among all confirmed cases is 51%, which means that the spread will continue as it will continue to rise.



Even if optimism is applied, it is not easy to escape the 4th stage according to the current standards of the quarantine authorities.



The Central Clinical Committee for Emerging Infectious Diseases says it is time to consider a change in social distancing, which is the number of confirmed cases.



Unlike the 3rd pandemic, I heard that the daily death toll is kept low at 5 or less.



The fatality rate of the flu is 0.1%, and if Corona 19 is managed like the flu, it is possible to escape the 4th stage.



The cumulative fatality rate of COVID-19 in Korea.



18.3% in their 80s, 5.4% in their 70s, and 0.23% in their 50s.



Up to the age of 50, the fatality rate of the flu is higher.



After vaccination, the fatality rate for those aged 60 and over was lower than that of the flu.



Now, let's look at the seriousness rate. Those in their 50s account for 34.6%, which is the highest among all age groups.



The explanation is that if you complete the 50's vaccination and lower the fatality rate and severe severity, you can escape the 4th stage without being bound by the number of patients.



The problem is that the number of patients with severe gastritis is rapidly increasing from 167 two weeks ago to 286 this week.



In the end, the answer lies in accelerating vaccination.



(Video editing: Tae-ho Yoon, CG: Seong-beom Jang, Su-hyeon Shim, Yu-ra Kang, Hyeon-jeong Jeong)