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Then, let's take a look at when the momentum of this relentless corona will stop. The government predicted that it would peak at the end of next month and enter a lull around mid-September. However, the 4th pandemic started from a larger number of patients than in the 3rd wave, and the fact that there is a delta mutation with strong transmission power is considered as a variable.
It was analyzed by Cho Dong-chan, a medical professional reporter.
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This is the 4th pandemic analysis graph released by the quarantine authorities earlier this week.
The worst-case scenario is if the spread continues now.
At the end of August, the number of daily confirmed cases rises to 2,300 and falls to 1,600 by mid-September.
However, if the 4th stage of social distancing and vaccination are effective, the number will drop to around 800 at the end of August and may drop to 200 in mid-September.
[Jung Eun-kyung/Director of the Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (last 12 days): It is estimated that the number will decrease to about 600 people by the end of August after maintaining the current level of increase and decrease for the next two weeks.] Both the
worst and best scenarios The tipping point is early July, so far, things are going according to the worst-case scenario.
This is a graph of the last 3rd trend in Korea.
It started with 100 people last November and reached its peak in December.
And it starts to bend steeply from January of this year, and it cuts off in the middle as it descends.
If you extend the graph here, the 4th pandemic begins on the 21st of last month after going sideways.
However, the starting point is 461 people, four times higher than the third.
So bigger and longer fads are a concern.
There is even an analysis that it could be extended until the end of November.
If we look more closely at the 4th wave in Korea, the upward trend is steeper from July 5, when the average daily number of confirmed cases per week was around 700.
From July 12th, the 4th level of social distancing has been implemented.
If 40% infection suppression effect is achieved, the number of confirmed cases will not exceed 2,000 per day, but if it is less than 10%, it may exceed 3,000.
A fourth epidemic is also underway in the United Kingdom and the United States, where vaccination rates are high, because of the delta mutation.
However, unlike the 3rd pandemic, the 4th pandemic has a very low mortality rate, thanks to the effectiveness of the vaccine.
In the United States, 99% of deaths are unvaccinated.
The domestic 4th pandemic is positive because the mortality rate is very low, but the fact that the vaccination rate is not yet high is an unsettling factor.
(Video coverage: Lee Seung-hwan, video editing: Jeon Min-gyu, CG: Jo Soo-in)