Heatwave and global warming: the worrying new projections from Météo-France
The bed of the Loiret completely dried up in Arcenis in August 2020 (illustrative image).
AFP - SEBASTIEN SALOM-GOMIS
Text by: RFI Follow
5 mins
Météo-France has produced new climate projections at the scale of metropolitan France to allow our societies to anticipate and adapt.
With the Simon Laplace Institute, Météo-France analyzed 30 simulations of the future climate of Europe.
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The
results obtained by Météo-France
paint the climate panorama over three periods - 2021-2050, 2051-2070 and 2071-2100 - according to three scenarios of UN experts from the IPCC: controlled, moderate or unreduced greenhouse gas emissions .
In these three scenarios, the warming is contained at the national level around 1 degree until 2040. The trajectories then diverge sharply.
If the increase is stabilized around + 1 ° in a controlled emissions scenario, the increase reaches + 2.2 ° on average in the intermediate scenario and soars to + 3.9 ° on average (and +4, 5 ° at worst) in the high emissions scenario.
According to this same scenario, from 2071, the temperature may increase on average by 3.9 ° C and up to 6 ° C in places, compared to the current climate.
The most virtuous scenario suggests an increase of 2.2 ° C on average.
Figures well above the objectives of the Paris Agreement
In the midst of the controversy over the level of ambition of the bill resulting from the Citizen Climate Convention and while a decision is expected this week in
the procedure brought by several NGOs against the State
for climate inaction, these projections are much higher than objectives of
the Paris agreement to
limit warming "
to well below 2 ° C compared to pre-industrial levels
", if possible below 1.5 ° C.
According to experts, warming since the pre-industrial era is already approaching 1 °.
And France, which has pledged to reduce its emissions by 40% by 2030 compared to 1990, exceeded the carbon budgets it had set itself.
► To read also: 2020, soon the hottest year ever recorded in France?
In these scenarios, the warming is more marked in the Alps, the Pyrenees and the south of the country.
These temperature increases will translate into more frequent extreme events.
They will be multiplied by two in the optimistic scenario, by three in the intermediate scenario and by five to ten in the most pessimistic.
The absolute records recorded
during the heatwave of summer 2019
- with 46 ° C in the south of France - could then be often exceeded, with an increase in average summer temperatures of six degrees.
The first result is that until the middle of the century, things are already played out due to the inertia of the climatic machine and we expect a warming of the order of 2.2 degrees in average over France.
Patrick Josse, director of climatology and climate services at Météo-France
Agnes Rougier
Due to the inertia of the climate machine, it is too late to change the next 20 years.
On the other hand, current decisions and actions will have strong consequences for the country's climate future.
(With
AFP
)
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