"Coronavirus is less volatile than influenza virus": virologists and epidemiologists on the development of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2021

- During 2020, a variety of, often contradictory, information was received about the coronavirus.

How has the perception of COVID-19 changed in scientific circles and what is known about it now?

Kirill Sharshov:

 I think the general opinion has not changed: the virus has fit into the general structure of respiratory infections, and is especially dangerous for a number of categories of people - risk groups.

Another thing is that a lot of data has now been accumulated on the main characteristics of the virus.

They are used by doctors and epidemiologists.

I believe that with proper material and organizational support of health care, the fight against the virus has become more effective.

A lot of publications have appeared in the scientific community, sometimes even too much.

To date, more than 86 317 articles for 2020 have been published in international databases with the keywords SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19.

It is easy to count that this is 241 publications per day!

Now there is an urgent need for review and analytical work capable of generalizing the gigantic material and drawing useful conclusions.

Olga Karpova:

 There are many strange things - in the course of the disease, in the selectivity of infections, in asymptomatic carriage.

A particularly interesting moment now is the immune response to asymptomatic carriage or mild disease.

At the same time, from the point of view of virology, molecular virology, which I am engaged in, everything is clear.

Clear structure, genome, mutations appear and disappear.

Various phylogenetic trees have been built.

That is, from the point of view of bioinformatics and molecular virology, the virus was taken apart by the bones.

The virus is new, with thousands of specific nucleotide sequences, but no particular variability.

- The first vaccines have already been developed, the vaccination campaign is starting.

However, to date, a cure against SARS-CoV-2 itself has not been found.

Is this due to the fact that we know too little about the virus?

Or is it too much?

What prevents you from finding his weak point?

K.S .:

 In my opinion, we know a lot about the new coronavirus.

In addition, the basic biological mechanisms and principles by which viruses and their hosts coexist, the basic mechanisms of the life cycle of viruses are the same and have been known for a long time.

Including for all coronaviruses.

But people never came up with a panacea, a specific cure for the virus.

There are very few successful examples of drugs specifically targeting viruses.

Basically, people try to stimulate the immune system with drugs and through this fight viruses.

Of course, many new approaches and methods are being developed now.

For many diseases, vaccination is the only effective remedy for the entire population.

I hope it will be effective against COVID-19 as well.

OK:

 We have successfully begun to treat bacterial diseases, because bacteria are an independent cell that infects our body.

If we hit bacteria, we do not hurt human cells.

And the virus multiplies in the host cell.

Uses all enzymes, machinery, translational apparatus, protein synthesis, cell energy.

He takes everything from the cage.

Thus, it is almost impossible to find a specific target that will only hit the replication of the virus and will not hit this cell.

Therefore, there is now no drug against coronavirus and will not be available soon.

- There are significant and insignificant mutations.

What new properties does the coronavirus acquire, how are they determined?

When can we say with confidence that, for example, the "British version" of SARS-CoV-2 refers to insignificant mutations?

KS:

Of course, the virus changes over time, and it happens all the time.

These changes are assessed by the analysis of the genome, which is decoded daily in different countries.

Mutations occur constantly, only a small number of them lead to a change in the properties of viruses. 

I specifically looked at the primary source of information about the new "British version", which is now being discussed by the whole world.

The researchers built a complex mathematical model that took into account many factors and predicted faster transmission of today's virus in several parts of the UK than its previous version, without increasing the severity of the disease.

How adequate the model is, epidemiologists will soon be able to tell us if they see it in reality in other regions. 

• London, Great Britain

• Reuters

• © John Sibley

OK:

 If we talk about the story of the British virus, then it is clearly spreading faster.

It is more convenient for him to replicate in the epithelial tissues of the nasopharynx, he does not go deeper - he is fine here too.

There is no evidence that the diseases caused by this isolate (and this strain is more correctly called an isolate) are more severe, that the death rate from it is higher.

Gennady Onishchenko: 

There are mutations of the strain towards increased contagiousness - the ability to infect.

According to the British Prime Minister, the infectiousness of the virus has increased by 70%.

This is not the first time that there were already several hundred such mutations in his genome.

This was first noted at the very beginning in Wuhan, in Hubei province, when the virus passed from animals to humans.

- What should be expected from the virus in the future?

Are significant mutations possible that reduce or nullify vaccine efficacy, and how can this be avoided?

Will, for example, accelerated vaccination of the population help not only reduce the spread, but also slow down unwanted mutations?

GO: There is no 

scientific evidence that the virus has learned to bypass the current vaccines.

The borders with Great Britain were closed, and this is justified: we need to sort it out properly.

And the main task now is to vaccinate the population as quickly as possible in order to stop the epidemic and reduce the number of possible mutations.

K.Sh .:

 It is unlikely that such significant mutations will appear to nullify the effectiveness of the vaccine.

The virus is less volatile, for example, than the influenza virus and most seasonal human respiratory viruses.

The reason for this is the very structure of the coronavirus genome.

Vaccination should help bring the virus under control.

OK: 

Vaccination is absolutely necessary.

At least at this stage.

At the moment, I have no reason to say that the created vaccines will not work.

They should work.

- Is it possible to say what the year 2021 will be like for us from the available data on the coronavirus?

Will the coming year be the time of the final battle and victory over this global threat?

Or are we still, relatively speaking, wandering in darkness, and the future of this story is vague?

K.S .:

I am inclined to agree with the opinion of most experts that if mass vaccination begins in the world in the spring, then the virus will be brought under control by the end of 2021, the incidence will decrease and the autumn season will be much easier.

It only remains to resolve the issue of the duration of immunity and the frequency of vaccination.

In addition, a very large proportion of the population will appear that has already been ill. 

OK:

The situation will improve with the expansion of the range of available vaccines and an increase in the number of vaccinated people, with an increase in the number of those who have recovered.

At the same time, I do not exclude that those people who have been ill easily, asymptomatically, immunity may be even lower.

Therefore, dear compatriots: vaccination, vaccination and vaccination again.

GO: 

We will, of course, win if we observe basic precautions.