[Interview file] Yoon Seok-yeol's discipline, honesty? -Risk, effect, purpose analysis

On the 10th, a disciplinary committee of the Ministry of Justice was held to decide whether or not to punish the prosecutor general.

The disciplinary committee, in which Yoon's special lawyers participated, ended only after the judgment of the disciplinary member evasion request and the procedure for the adoption of witnesses, while the party President Seok-Yeol Yoon himself did not attend.

The next due date, the 15th, is likely to determine the disciplinary status and level of disciplinary action.

However, before and after the disciplinary committee on the 10th, observations began to come out that the level of disciplinary action against President Yoon Suk-yeol would be'honesty' rather than dismissal or dismissal as expected.

This is a scenario that I mentioned several times before appearing on SBS 8 News on the 10th before the disciplinary committee.

To be honest, I have been thinking since then that if severe disciplinary action is resolved, it is more likely to be honesty than dismissal or dismissal.

This is because, from the standpoint of Justice Minister Choo Mi-ae and the Blue House, suspending the dismissal can be as effective as dismissal and less risky.

Then, from the perspective of Justice Minister Chu Miae and the Blue House, we will compare dismissal and honesty during the expected disciplinary action against President Yoon Seok-yeol from the perspective of'risk' and'real effect'.

First, it is the perspective of'risk'.

Not long before the disciplinary committee against Prosecutor General Yoon Seok-yeol was held, Minister Choo Mi-ae and the Blue House were hit by an unexpected blow.

The Seoul Administrative Court raised the hand of President Yoon Suk-yeol in the case of suspension of the suspension of duties.

On the 24th of last month (November), Minister Choo Mi-ae demanded disciplinary action against Prosecutor General Yoon Seok-yeol and at the same time suspended his duties.

However, on December 1, the Seoul Administrative Court accepted the request for suspension of execution by President Yoon Suk-yeol's suspension of duties.

The decision even explicitly mentioned the abuse of the discretionary power of Minister Choo Mi-ae and the need for independence for the prosecutor general's duties.

As soon as the court's decision was made, President Yoon Seok-yeol went to work again at the Supreme Prosecutors' Office, and public opinion that Minister Chu Mi-ae's disciplinary claim was both procedurally and in terms of content widespread.

The fact that the Supervisory Commission, the official advisory body of the Ministry of Justice regarding disciplinary proceedings, pointed out that there were significant procedural flaws in the entire process of the Ministry of Justice's supervision, disciplinary claim, suspension of duties, and request for investigation against President Yoon Seok-yeol, which was also very disadvantageous to Minister Chu. .

On December 2, the day after the decision to suspend execution was issued, the Blue House announced that it had appointed lawyer Yong-gu Lee to the position of the Vice Minister of Justice.

The Vice Minister of Justice is the position to take the ex officio member of the Disciplinary Committee.

In revealing the facts of the internal affairs, Blue House spokesman Kang Min-seok emphasized "procedural fairness" several times.

The next day, Vice Minister Yong-gu Lee also met reporters on his first way to work as Vice Minister of Justice and brought out prepared manuscripts, emphasizing "procedural fairness."

The response of the Blue House and Vice Minister Lee Yong-gu is interpreted as a time to make up for the controversy over the defection of procedural fairness raised through the official recommendation of the Supervisory Commission of the Ministry of Justice, an advisory body, and the decision of the Seoul Administrative Court.

Of course, legally, even if procedural fairness is observed at the disciplinary committee stage, it is difficult to see that the procedural defects in the inspection and disciplinary claim process, which were in the previous stage of the disciplinary committee, will be healed, but the direction of public opinion after the disciplinary committee result was announced and above all else. This is because the expected outcome of administrative litigation may be affected by procedural fairness controversy.

core of

is the suspension of execution, which is expected to proceed again in the future.

If a severe disciplinary action beyond suspension is decided, it is highly likely that President Yoon Seok-yeol will once again request the court to suspend the enforcement of the disciplinary action.

Just as Secretary Chu Miae's suspension of duties was suspended by the Seoul Administrative Court, public opinion against Minister Chu deteriorated.In the end, the direction of public opinion on the disciplinary outcome of the disciplinary committee may be determined depending on whether or not the court cited the request for suspension of execution. .

If, after the disciplinary committee's decision to suspend the disciplinary action, the court also accepts the request for suspension of the enforcement of the disciplinary action on the part of President Yoon Suk-yeol, the worst situation could unfold for Minister Choo Mi-ae, which could be decisively hit by the legitimacy.

For this reason, the Ministry of Justice and the Blue House are likely to judge that dismissal is a higher risk than suspension.

The dismissal is because there is a relatively high probability of a decision to suspend execution by the court compared to the suspension.

Although it has already been reported several times, the criteria of the court's judgment on the suspension of the disciplinary action itself is not whether the disciplinary action itself is justified, but because of the disciplinary action, even if the disciplinary action is later canceled through the main lawsuit, "irreparable damage" is immediately. Is what happens.

In light of these criteria, compared to dismissal, which is a dismissal that is permanently expelled from the office of general president, suspension of work for a certain period of time can be evaluated as having a relatively less degree of "irreparable damage".

From the perspective of the Ministry of Justice, it can be seen that the likelihood of losing an execution suspension decreases when a suspension is dismissed than when a dismissal is dismissed.

(This does not mean that the court is unlikely to cite a request for suspension of execution if a suspension is made. The suspension will actually mean dismissal or dismissal of the person, or the suspension itself will “recover” to the party or the agency. If it is judged that “unreasonable damage” occurs, the court can cite an application for suspension of the suspension of execution. In fact, in 2009, the Jeonju District Court administration approved experiential learning instead of the Japanese occupation, and Jeonbuk Jangsu Middle School was suspended for three months. I have cited an application for suspension of execution of disciplinary action against teachers. The reason for the suspension of execution is the very principled "It is necessary to suspend the validity immediately to prevent damages to the applicant due to the disposition of honesty. There is no fear of affecting it”, but it seems important that there are cases where the principal reason was recognized in the case of suspension of execution of the suspension of disposition.)

So far, we have analyzed the fact that from the viewpoints of the Ministry of Justice and the Blue House, the risk of deciding on suspension is lower than when deciding on dismissal.

From now on, let's compare suspension and dismissal in terms of the'effectiveness' that can be practically expected.

If the purpose of the Ministry of Justice and the Blue House is to get President Yun Suk-yeol out of his position, the effect of suspension may seem weaker than that of dismissal.

This is because, if interpreted literally, if a suspension is made, unlike dismissal, Seok-yeol Yoon may return to the post of general president after a certain period.

However, if you look at the situation in which the suspension is made, it can be evaluated that the effect of the suspension is not less than that of the dismissal.

First of all, it should be pointed out that the possibility of a six-month disposition with honesty seems unlikely.

According to the Prosecutor and Disciplinary Act, suspension can be from 1 to 6 months.

If you are suspended for 6 months, your job will be suspended immediately before the end of the term of office of President Seok-Yeol Yoon (July 2021).

It is effectively a disposition with the same effect as a dismissal.

However, if the analysis that the decision to be suspended for dismissal is conscious of the possibility of citation for suspension of execution is valid, there seems to be no reason for the Ministry of Justice or the Blue House to raise the risk of being cited for suspension of execution by making a six-month suspension.

Rather, there is a possibility that the Ministry of Justice and the Blue House may judge that even a three-month disciplinary action on suspension can provide the same effect as dismissal.

This is because if the suspension of three months is suspended, not only will President Yoon Suk-yeol not be able to direct the politically sensitive cases currently underway, but there will also be a justification for demanding the voluntary resignation of President Yoon Suk-yeol.

In the event of a three-month suspension, the controversial Daejeon District Prosecutor's Office's investigation into the shutdown of nuclear power plants is likely to be terminated without President Yun Suk-yeol's command.

Of course, the Deputy Prosecutor of the Supreme Prosecutors' Office of the Supreme Prosecutors' Office will be in charge of the command during the period of suspension of President Yoon. He has the authority to appoint him to the position of the Deputy Prosecutor General, the deputy prosecutor of the chief prosecutor.

If the prosecution's personnel are administered, the possibility of replacing Daejeon District Prosecutors' Office Lee Doo-bong, who is evaluated as an aide of President Yoon Seok-chem, is also predicted.

In this case, the Ministry of Justice will be able to investigate the case of the shutdown of the Daejeon District Prosecutor's Office through the newly appointed prosecution command line with President Yoon Seok-yeol excluded.

Therefore, the key suspect in the nuclear power plant shutdown case, which the new Vice Minister of Justice Lee Yong-gu defended recently, and unfortunately, former Minister of Industry, Baek Woon-gyu, who said "how can I say that" in an interview with the JoongAng Ilbo reported a day before the holding of the Disciplinary Committee on President Yoon Suk-yeol It seems likely that the others will also pay attention to the results of the disciplinary action of President Yoon Suk-yeol.

The investigation or investigation of the Seoul High Prosecutor's Office against the Supreme Prosecutor's Office Chief Han Dong-soo in relation to the alleged illegal investigation against President Yoon Seok-yeol may also be affected by the results of the disciplinary committee.

suspended The effect of the suspension will not be limited to excluding Yoon Seok-yeol from politically sensitive cases.

In the event of suspension, the reason for demanding the voluntary resignation of President Yoon Seok-yeol is also expected to become stronger.

As the prosecutor general has never been subjected to disciplinary action so far, there is a high possibility that a request will be made to decide to take up as a high-ranking public official.

If President Moon Jae-in or a Blue House spokesman, who will be executing the disciplinary action, directly comment on the voluntary resignation, the demand for voluntary resignation will increase.

Therefore, from the perspective of Cheong Wa Dae and Minister Chu Mi-ae, there is a possibility that the suspension of the dismissal against President Yoon Suk-yeol has a low risk and a similar effect compared to the dismissal.

However, a recent incident has fueled the observation that the Blue House and the Ministry of Justice will choose to be suspended.

The Open Democratic Party's Rep. Kang-wook Choi proposed the'Prosecutor-Judge's Law Prohibiting Run for One Year After Retirement.'

The bill initiated on the 11th by Rep. Kang-wook Choi, etc., revised the current statute that allows people to run for public office 90 days after retirement, and regulates that prosecutors and judges cannot run for public office for one year after retirement. Content.

When Rep. Choi and others proposed this bill the day after the Disciplinary Committee of President Yoon Suk-yeol, most media interpreted it as the'Prohibition of Running for Yoon Suk-yeol'.

If President Yoon Seok-yeol finishes his term of office, he will serve as president until July 25 next year. In this case, the current law cannot prevent him from running for the next presidential election in March 2022, but if the bill initiated by Congressman Kang-wook Choi passes. This is because President Seok-yeol Yoon cannot run for the presidential election.

In this case, Rep. Kang-wook Choi expressed strong dissatisfaction with the media reports and insisted that the bill was not aimed at Yun Suk-yeol.

It's just a bill to emphasize the political neutrality of prosecutors and judges.

However, in the general election last April, as soon as the ruling party as well as the opposition party retired, the disciplinary committee was held in a situation where there was a great controversy by nominating judges who ran for the National Assembly, and at the time when Yoon Seok-yeol took the lead in the election poll. It seems difficult to interpret the act that initiated the bill separately from the controversy related to Yoon Seok-yeol.

However, some interpret this bill in connection with the results of the Yoon Seok-yeol disciplinary committee.

Rep. Choi Kang-wook, who has a close relationship with the current government's core powers, said that the fact that Prosecutors, including Yoon Seok-yeol, could not run for one year after retirement, does not mean that the Ministry of Justice and the Blue House virtually excluded dismissal from their options. I am in doubt.

If President Yoon Seok-yeol is dismissed through the disciplinary committee this time, he can run for the presidential election even if Congressman Kang-wook Choi's bill is passed because there is more than one year left until the presidential election in March 2020.

However, if you return to the position of president after being suspended and fill your term of office, if you follow the bill initiated by Congressman Kang-wook Choi, you will not be able to run for the presidential election.

The term ends on July 25, 2021, as the next presidential election will take place in March 2022, one year before the end of the term.

Given this situation, there are some people who doubt that a bill like this would have been initiated at this point because they expect that a dismissal would be suspended instead of dismissal.

Of course, this is a possible interpretation under the premise that the law of Congressman Kang-wook Choi is actually aimed at Yoon Seok-yeol.

Again, Congressman Choi strongly denies allegations of targeting Yoon Suk-yeol.

Readers can decide for themselves which one is close to the truth.

as well as discuss whether the justification for disciplinary reasons for yunseokyeol-General on the far may be pointed out that only an analysis of only the risks and effects of the type of holding an assertions that come out that are Allway while disciplinary disposal.

However, after the public recommendation of the Supervisory Commission of the Ministry of Justice and the decision to suspend the suspension of duties by the Seoul Administrative Court, many people disagree on the fact that the grounds for disciplinary action asserted by the Minister of Justice are generally lacking, and that there is a serious flaw in the disciplinary procedure. This is the situation you are seeing a match.

Nevertheless, the above analysis may be meaningless if Minister Chu Mi-ae and the Blue House believe that there is no purpose to get Prosecutor General Yoon Seok-yeol out of his position, or if the controversial investigation into the current controversial nuclear power plant shutdown investigation has nothing to do with the disciplinary procedure of President Yoon Seok-yeol. .

Even if the disciplinary committee is likely to make a decision not suspicious of Yun Suk-yeol, this analysis would be meaningless.

However, as many people may have guessed, if the politically sensitive cases currently underway are not irrelevant to the discipline of President Yoon Seok-yeol and there is little possibility that the disciplinary committee will impose an innocent disposition on President Seok-Yeol Woon, it is better to decide on suspension rather than dismissal. The analysis that it can be advantageous from the perspective of the Blue House and Minister Chu Mi-ae will have its own meaning.

We will see what will happen at the disciplinary committee on the 15th.