Global climate change would be inevitable
Even if greenhouse gas emissions were to drop drastically, global temperatures would continue to rise for centuries, according to a study by the journal Scientific Reports (photo illustration).
REUTERS / Sivaram V
Text by: RFI Follow
Even if greenhouse gas emissions were to drop drastically, global temperatures would continue to rise for centuries, according to a study by the journal Scientific Reports.
Jorgen Randers, BI Norwegian Business School, and Ulrich Goluke, two Norwegian scientists, modeled the effect of different reductions in greenhouse gas emissions.
Their simulation of the global climate concerns the period between 1850 and 2500 and the result shows that a considerable increase in temperature and sea level globally seems difficult to avoid.
The two researchers studied two scenarios: if gas emissions peaked in the 2030s and declined to zero by 2100, global temperatures would still be three degrees higher and sea level higher. of 3 meters by 2500, compared to 1850.
In a world where greenhouse gas emissions would be reduced to zero by the year 2020, the damage would still be considerable: around three degrees more there too and an increase in sea level of around 2, 5 meters.
This inertia of the Earth system is mainly due to
the melting of
and permafrost, according to the researchers.
This melting, which is already seriously underway, has several consequences: that of increasing the concentration of water vapor, carbon dioxide and methane in the atmosphere.
But also that of reducing the white surface area.
However, white reflects sunlight and dampens warming.
Scientists then plead for an immediate stop of emissions.
In addition, according to them, systems should be put in place to capture and store carbon in order to escape a
To read: The UN warns about the number of natural disasters caused by climate change in 20 years
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