▲ Expected route of movement for the 9th typhoon'Maisak' by the Meteorological Administration


The Meteorological Agency, which was criticized for not predicting the'longest rainy season' in history, has once again climbed to the reliability test by the path of the 9th typhoon'Mysak'.



Due to the difference in the route between the Meteorological Administration and major overseas organizations, interest is drawing on which one is right.



The Meteorological Administration analyzed that Maisak will land on the south coast of Gyeongnam in the early morning of the 3rd, after passing through the sea on the east side of Jeju Island on the evening of the 2nd, passing through the eastern provinces, and exiting the central sea of ​​the East Sea the same morning.



After that, the typhoon predicted that after landing in North Korea again, it would go up to land in the northwest of China's Chongjin and gradually disappear.



The specific point of landing in Korea was predicted between Geoje and Busan.



If it goes like this, Maissack will follow a similar path to the 2003 typhoon'Maemi', which caused the second-largest property damage in history.



However, major overseas meteorological agencies, such as the United States and Japan, predicted a slightly more western route than the Meteorological Agency.




Mysak's expected travel route announced by the US Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) on the 1st at 9 p.m. (local time) indicates that it will enter between Yeosu and Namhae.



JTWC predicted that Maissack would pass through the center of Korea and go up to China through North Korea.



This is a route closer to the 2002 typhoon'Rusa', which caused the most property damage in history. Unlike the expected route by the Meteorological Administration, which mainly passes through the Yeongnam area and cities near the east coast, the metropolitan area is in a direct danger radius, and the damage may be greater.



In addition, the Japan Meteorological Agency predicted the route that Maisak would enter between Jeonnam and Gyeongnam and exit the East Coast in the forecast as of 9 am on the day.




It is about halfway between Korea Meteorological Administration and JTWC forecast.



In a briefing the previous day, the Meteorological Administration explained, "If the central pressure of a typhoon is lowered and it occurs strongly, the tendency to travel north rather than east as it moves by itself increases, so it can land closer to the Jeonnam coast of the south coast of Gyeongnam."



However, he added, "As the current typhoon reaches the strongest level, it tends to weaken little by little, so the possibility of the west side is weak."



Mysack's central air pressure is 940hPa as of 6 am on the day, and is expected to rise to 955hPa by 0 am on the 3rd, when it lands in Korea.



Contrary to the western view, the dry air from the northwest of the typhoon pushes the typhoon to the east more strongly, and the typhoon may be a little more eastern.



An official from the Meteorological Administration added, "We expect to go according to the scenario of the Meteorological Administration at the moment," and added, "However, we are doing additional analysis based on the actual situation with some possibilities open."



(Photo = Provided by the Meteorological Agency, excerpt from the website of the U.S. typhoon warning center, excerpt from the Japan Meteorological Agency website, Yonhap News)