An analysis has suggested that the summer heat-affected elderly population will rise to a maximum of 5.5 times 40 years later.

As the heat wave is expected to become more severe due to climate change, there are also concerns that it is necessary for countermeasures against heat waves for the elderly.

According to a report by the Korea Environmental Policy and Evaluation Research Institute (KEI) researcher Shim Chang-seop, a report on the 'Population Forecast for Heat-Risked Risks Considering Low Fertility and Aging and Countermeasures by Region' report, the population exposed to heatwaves aged 65 or older in 2060 was 3.8 this year. It is expected to increase by ~ 5.5 times.

The researchers made this analysis based on the Meteorological Administration's climate forecast scenario (RCP 4.5, a scenario in which the greenhouse gas reduction policy is significantly realized) and future population estimates.

The population at risk for heat wave exposure was calculated by multiplying the average number of days that exceeded the heat wave reference temperature (33 degrees) by the number of people exposed.

According to the report, it is estimated that in the summer of 2060, the total risk of heatwave exposure will increase by 1.2 to 1.7 times 2020.

Compared to 2020, the number of monthly heat waves in 2060 increased by 1.27 times (1.98 times) in June, 2.22 times (1.62 times) in July, and 5.69 days (2.27 times) in August, but the population exposed to heat waves is at risk due to a decrease in population due to low fertility and aging. It was estimated to increase to 1.48 times, 1.18 times, and 1.66 times less than the heat wave days.

However, the situation is different when you narrow down the subject to the elderly aged 65 or over.

In June 2060, the population exposed to heatwaves aged 65 and over was expected to jump five times the same month in 2020.

July increased to 3.79 times and August to 5.48 times, respectively.

This is a sharp increase over the number of days of heat waves.

Among them, the risk of heat exposure for people over 75 increases by 8.08 times in June 2020, 6.08 times in July, and 8.80 times in August, respectively.

Over 85 years of age, the increase was steeper in June-August at 17.04, 12.71, and 14.35, respectively.

Heat waves primarily cause skin burns or accelerate skin aging due to direct sun exposure, sunstroke, heat cramps, etc., but older people who have poor ability to regulate body heat to maintain homeostasis may die after prolonged exposure to heat waves.

"The increase in the population of the aging population will make the risk of exposure to heat waves in vulnerable groups more severe than the overall population and the population of the elderly."

He added, "We will need to prepare realistic measures such as health support and power supply and demand system for stable operation of cooling facilities."