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"Do you know what they call" regrowth "in China or Korea? To have 10-20 new cases. Here we have 400 new cases a day and we already want to go to the beach or for drinks ." This reflection of the former Minister of Industry, Miguel Sebastián, summarizes the wishes of a large part of the Spanish. However, to overcome the pandemic, it is necessary to comply with the protection measures against COVID-19.

Health authorities insist on the importance of wearing masks to prevent COVID-19 infections. One of the most useful prophylaxis measures to stop new cases along with increasing social distance. However, many citizens are skeptical or ignore these types of recommendations, as can be seen with the naked eye taking to the streets .

The fact that a large percentage of the population wears a mask contributes significantly to narrowing the spread of the pandemic according to this Berkeley simulation.

"Using complicated computational models we have discovered if the majority of the population (between 80% and 90%) puts on masks around the 50th day , the virus propagation curve can be cushioned and a return to earlier normality , "says computer engineering professor De Kai.

However, they ensure that if these measures are taken later, their effectiveness decreases. " The opportunity will have disappeared, " he says.

This computational simulation understands the pandemic as a starting point for a scenario in which 1% of the population is infected (2 people out of a sample of 200). However, these parameters can be modified.

"To show these discoveries we have developed an interactive computing model that anyone can use," says the professor.

A phenomenon that is observed in the simulations made by this computational model and with which anyone can mess around in this link. As they are simulations, the result with the same parameters may differ from one test to another. However, there are common trends.

That's how it works

The master lines show a forecast of scenarios without any intervention. The blue line shows people susceptible to infection, orange is for people exposed to the virus, red refers to the infected and infectious population, and green refers to patients who have recovered or died.

After 100 days of a pandemic, a large part of the population of a territory has gone from being susceptible to infection to being infected, exposed or recovered from the virus in a scenario without intervention. That is, as time progresses, most people have not only been infected or exposed, but have also recovered.

From this reference, the simulations show new curves with different scenarios based on parameters that can be configured as desired.

The simulation allows you to choose the effectiveness of the masks (a homemade mask is not the same as a sanitary one and an FFP2 or FFP3) and allows you to select how effective the masks are when it comes to working as a barrier to prevent infected particles reach others that one person emits reach another. That is, from inside the body to the outside. Likewise, it is also possible to configure the effectiveness of the masks when it comes to preventing particles from the outside from reaching our nose or mouth.

Other parameters

Among other parameters, it is possible to control the percentage of people who put on and take off the mask , the quality of the masks, the number of susceptible, exposed, infected or recovered people.

By default, it is a simulation programmed with the parameters of the COVID-19. However, it also offers us the possibility of modifying these variables, among which are the infection ratio, the recovery ratio, the ratio of exposure to infected people, and the mortality ratio.

Finally, it is possible to pause the simulation at any time to adjust parameters such as people putting on and taking off their masks . In this way, we will be able to know what scenarios of the pandemic we would be faced with based on these variables and what happens if more people start using (or stop using) masks .

In accordance with the criteria of The Trust Project

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