A straw fire rather than an outbreak. The US decision to eliminate Iranian General Qassem Soleimani, and the launch of missiles by Tehran at two US bases in Iraq on Wednesday, January 8, had a measured impact on oil prices. The crude oil price has increased by around 5% since the death of the leader of the Al-Quds brigades to settle at around 68 dollars per barrel.
This increase is not trivial, but has nothing to do with the soaring black gold prices that the world experienced during the Gulf War in 1990 and the war in Iraq in 2003. Following the first invasion of Iraq by the United States, for example, the price of crude oil had quadrupled in just a few months. Admittedly, at the time it was a question of armed conflicts, but "a few years ago, all the crises in the Middle East led to a sharp rise in oil prices, at least temporarily," recalls the Washington Post.
Storm in a glass of petroleum
The lukewarm reaction of the financial markets to the deadly American raid and to the Iranian response is due, first of all, to the fact that Iran is not Iraq, or Saudi Arabia. "Iranian production and exports have already been reduced to their bare minimum because of economic sanctions, and therefore the anticipated direct impact on Iranian oil supply is limited," said Ali Ghezelbash, associate director at the British consultancy. Critical Resource and specialist in the Middle East, contacted by France 24.
The other reason why this crisis resembles, for the moment, a storm in a glass of oil comes from "market fundamentals - in terms of supply and demand - which remain good," notes this expert. Clearly, there is enough oil to quench everyone's thirst for black gold and reassure investors.
This is, in part, due to the place taken by the United States in the concert of nations producing the precious hydrocarbon. The American shale gas and oil revolution is something that did not exist during the crises in the Middle East before the 2010s. "The world has become less dependent on oil from this region," confirms Ali Ghezelbash.
The Iranian-American crisis represents, in a sense, the revealer of a new reality: "Oil has become a bad barometer to measure tensions in the Middle East", asserts to the New York Times Helima Croft, responsible for the strategy on the commodity markets of the investment bank RBC Capital Markets.
This paradigm shift also seems to offer greater flexibility in the United States in the region, the Wall Street Journal believes. "This means that Washington can impose economic sanctions on Iran without fear of a feverish spike in the oil markets, or that the attack on Saudi Aramco's oil installations in September did not have too much effect. important for the supply of oil to the United States, "lists the American daily.
Risk of escalation to neighboring countries of Iran
This observation has its limits, however. The region remains central to the world oil supply with countries like Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. "The main risk of this crisis is that it spills over to neighboring countries of Iran and that oil installations are targeted, in which case the price increase could be much greater," said Ali Ghezelbash.
Read also on France 24: Crisis in the Gulf: geostrategic challenges of the Strait of Hormuz
The danger would therefore be that Tehran decides to hit the United States in the wallet by bombing the Saudi oil fields or the UAE refineries to knowingly cause prices to soar. The Iranian regime could also decide to block traffic on the Strait of Hormuz, located between Oman and Iran, and through which pass more than 20 million barrels of crude per day. Closing this black gold tap could destabilize the world economy.
For the time being, the oil markets seem to take Iranian claims that the bombing of US bases in Iraq was a "proportionate response" to the assassination of their influential general. They do not anticipate other strikes likely to set fire to the powder and the price of oil. This optimism stems from the perception of Iran as a country "which reacts in a thoughtful manner, and Tehran does not see what could be its interest in spreading the conflict to its neighbors, especially since it is very difficult to "anticipate what the reaction of the American president might be," said Ali Ghezelbash. In other words, the unpredictability of Donald Trump, the source of this crisis, is probably also what keeps Iran from raising the stakes further.
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