She sees Russian submarines everywhere. The Atlantic Alliance is concerned about the military activity of the Russian navy, which has never been stronger since the end of the Cold War, confirmed Oana Lungescu, spokesman for NATO to the German press, Monday December 16.
In recent months, "we have seen increased submarine activity in the Baltic Sea, the Arctic Sea, the Black Sea and the Mediterranean," American General Tod Wolters, commander of the Allied forces in Europe, listed a week earlier.
Eight nuclear submarines on mission
The main theater of operation for Russian submersibles was in the Arctic, where the northern fleet, the largest of the four Russian fleets, is based. Last October, Norwegian intelligence services observed the unprecedented deployment of ten submarines, including eight nuclear-powered, which left the base in Murmansk (northwest of Russia) to go off the coast of Norway. and patrol the Barents Sea (southern Arctic Ocean). "This represents almost 20% of the total Russian submarine capacity," analyzes the conservative American magazine National Interest.
A show of force that worried Norway and NATO. The Norwegian Defense Ministry has expressed its concerns to the Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, and has indicated that his country will increase its investments in detection capabilities for submarines. For its part, NATO said it was ready to react, without specifying what measures the organization intended to take.
“Since the annexation of Crimea in 2014, Western countries have wondered in which direction Russia will continue to expand its sphere of influence. The Arctic is an attractive area because the melting ice is making natural resources increasingly difficult to exploit until now, ”explains Bettina Renz, Russian security specialist at the University of Nottingham, contacted by France. 24.
Russia tests new equipment
But this expert thinks that these deployments should not be reduced to a purely aggressive gesture. "The main reason for this activity is the modernization policy of the Russian army which has been carried out since around 2009," she explains. The fall of the Soviet regime had led to a long period of military scarcity for Russia, which Vladimir Putin ended at the start of his second term as Russian president in 2008. The massive investments made since then, notably in the navy, have made it possible to renew equipment that needs to be tested. “This is why for several years now, Russia has been organizing regular training sessions to familiarize themselves with the equipment,” notes Bettina Renz.
The deployments of recent months would partly fall within this framework. The maneuvers mainly concern submarines because "it is historically the strong point of the Russian navy which also shows a definite delay over other military powers in the field of warships", specifies this specialist.
Become a leading military power
However, Moscow did not need to mobilize such a large number of submarines for simple training. And in calmer diplomatic times, Russia has shown more military restraint for its exercises at sea, recalls Seapower Magazine, the publication of the Navy League, the main lobby of the American maritime military industry. But in the context of much tighter relations with the United States and Europe, Russia "needs to prove that it has once again become a leading military power to be reckoned with", assures Bettina Renz. The country thus demonstrates that the economic sanctions imposed after the annexation of Crimea did not prevent it from continuing to modernize its arsenal.
With these maneuvers, Moscow does not only seek to show its muscles, but also to test those of others. "The Russians want to test the detection capabilities of the Western powers and test how ready they are to react during large-scale naval maneuvers," Norwegian intelligence spokesman NRK said. the Norwegian public television channel.
This multiplication of submarine deployments is therefore as much about training as provocation. Maneuvers that would not pose a threat in themselves, according to Bettina Rentz, but which illustrate how "there is a lack of dialogue between Russia and the Western powers". For her, this military unrest replaces the discussions, leading to an inevitable arms race "which is the real threat in the medium and long term".
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