Since the start of the semiconductor crisis, which was later added to that of other components or the Ukrainian War, the automobile market has experienced a contradictory situation.
With the supervening supply crisis, manufacturers have seen how everything produced was taken out of their hands, regardless of the fact that they have focused their strategy on the most equipped models and those that give them more margin;
and also maximized the second-hand vehicle business.
And it is already known that when demand exceeds supply, prices rise: up to 10.4% in the case of cars in 2022, historical data according to the INE.
The situation may begin to change shortly.
Or at least, this is the opinion of Francisco Pérez Botello, president of Volkswagen Group Spain Distribution, the company that sells Volkswagen, Audi, Skoda and Volkswagen Commercial Vehicles cars in our country.
In his opinion, "in the second part of this year we will see a certain normalization of the car market, there will no longer be a break on the supply side like that of 2022. But I do not think there will be a drop in prices, because they continue to
operate levers such as the increase in the cost of raw materials and energy. What there will be will be greater commercial tension between brands, for example, in the form of discounts."
Francisco Pérez Botello, president of Volkswagen Group Spain Distribution
According to Pérez Botello, total registrations will still be far from the volume that is considered natural for a market like ours, which should be around 1.2 or 1.3 million units considering only passenger cars.
"
It will be about 900,000 units and it will continue to be a profitable year, but not as buoyant as the previous one."
The danger of Euro 7
The manager made these forecasts in the IX edition of the economic forum organized by the distributor in our country.
And he took advantage of the meeting to request several things from the
government, "which has a very good predisposition, but this later needs to be translated into concrete facts."
These petitions include tax cut measures, purchase incentives and the development of the recharging network to accelerate sales of electrified vehicles.
But, above all, that Spain is very belligerent against the Euro 7 emission standard as it is proposed.
renewal plan
"It has a very high cost, it will provide a marginal benefit and, in addition, there is an alternative that would give better results," he said.
Specifically, he refers to a plan that would make it possible to renovate a park that is very old and very polluting.
"Scientifically, it makes more sense to remove cars that pollute six times more, than to force the sale of many fewer that will barely reduce those emissions by 4 or 5%."
In addition, the norm would not only force to allocate billions in investment subtracted to electrification.
It could also imply an increase of up to 2,000 euros in small and compact cars, as are many of those that are produced here.
"And that could put at risk, if not a factory, an assembly line and that's hundreds of jobs," said the executive, who revealed that
the manufacturers would be willing to contribute financially to this plan, which the Anfac employers would already have ready to show the Government.
Regarding the results of his company, the distributor's brands ended in 2022 with
117,300 units sold, 14.4% of the total market and improvements in the share for Volkswagen or Audi.
While on the network side, profitability was between 2.5% and 3%
.
The commercial tensions that Pérez-Botello was talking about will reduce that figure to around 2% this year, which will also be the beginning of the transition towards the agency contract, starting with electric vehicles and with fleet vehicles.
"But always hand in hand with the dealers."
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