When the Brazilians perform at the soccer World Cup in Qatar these days, they always count down their very own countdown.
The goal is clear: They want to play seven games in this tournament and finally win the title in the final.
It would be the sixth: they are already record world champions.
Tobias Rabe
Responsible editor for Sport Online.
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In the World Cup forecast by Daniel Memmert and Fabian Wunderlich, the probabilities of victory after regular time and progression, possibly even after extra time and penalties, are given.
This data is based on the values of the betting market.
In the first game this Monday (4:00 p.m. CET in the FAZ live ticker for the soccer World Cup, on ZDF and on MagentaTV), it is the turn of two teams who have never been world champions.
Croatia came close as a participant in the final in 2018, Japan did not get past the round of 16 at the time.
The Croatians are ahead in the world rankings (12th to 24th place) and the average market value of the players (14.5 to 5.9 million euros), as well as in the probability of victory after 90 minutes (45.8 percent).
But that also shows that it is not unlikely that things will continue afterwards.
Overall, the Croatians advance to 65.1 percent.
After that (8:00 p.m. CET in the FAZ live ticker for the World Cup, on ZDF and on MagentaTV), the Brazilians are challenged against South Korea.
They beat Germany four and a half years ago, but didn't get past the group stage.
The Seleção failed in the quarterfinals.
Now everything speaks for the South Americans: in the world rankings (1st place to 28) and in market values (43.5 to 6.3).
This is also reflected in the 76 percent probability of victory after 90 minutes.
It is therefore not very likely that there will be an extension.
Should it still happen: Even then, 90.8 percent of Brazil will make it into the quarter-finals.