[Actually] What happens if you advance to the round of 16 even with 1 draw and 1 loss?

After the second round of the World Cup group stage against Ghana, few predicted that Korea would advance to the round of 16.

That would also be the case because the results until the second round of the World Cup group stage were 1 draw and 1 loss, and moreover, the last 3 rounds of the group stage were Portugal, a soccer powerhouse.

Portugal scored the first goal in the 5th minute of the first half, and the defeat was clear. 

But a miracle happened.

The chances of advancing to the round of 16 after 1 draw and 1 loss until the second game were slim, but Korean soccer did it again.

December 3, 2022 has become a day that will remain in the history of Korean football.

So it seems that soccer is a drama without a script.

If so, how many cases have you advanced to the round of 16 after 1 draw and 1 loss until the second round of the group stage?

In fact, the SBS Fact Check team analyzed all previous World Cup data.

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The basis for analysis is from the 1998 World Cup in France.

The current system, in which 32 countries were organized into 8 groups and the 1st and 2nd place in each group advanced to the round of 16, was established at that time.

The same conditions apply. 

Since 4 countries are organized into 8 in one World Cup, the total number of participating teams is 32, and a total of 7 times from the 1998 World Cup in France to the 2022 World Cup in Qatar, so a total of 224 teams (32X7) will come out.

It is a way to compare the performance of 224 teams up to the second game and whether or not they advance to the round of 16.

Here are the analysis results.

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In the last 7 World Cups, a total of 38 teams who recorded 2 wins until the 2nd round of the group stage, all advanced to the round of 16 regardless of the results of the 3rd round.

It is 100%.

1 win and 1 draw was calculated as 85.1%, with 40 teams advancing to the round of 16 out of a total of 47 teams.

Korea also had a record of 1 win and 1 draw until the 2nd game and advanced to the round of 16.

At the time of the 2002 Korea-Japan World Cup, Korea beat Poland and drew with the United States, so it was 1 win and 1 draw until the second game.

And after beating Portugal in the third match, they advanced to the round of 16 by finishing first in their group. 

But, to put it another way, even if you get 1 win and 1 draw until the 2nd game, the remaining 15% will not advance to the round of 16.

There was a time when Korea was 15% of that.

In the 2006 World Cup in Germany, Korea beat Togo in the first game and drew with France in the second game, so it was 1 win and 1 draw until the second game like the Korea-Japan World Cup, but lost to Switzerland 2-0 in the last game 3 and failed to advance to the round of 16.

Based on points, Korea's final score at the time was 17th, and it was a pity that it was eliminated.

Anyway, looking back at the history of the World Cup, if you have 1 win and 1 draw until the 2nd game, you can say that you have advanced.

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45.1% of the teams advanced to the round of 16 with 1 win and 1 loss until the 2nd game, and 69.2% with 2 draws.

However, like Korea in this World Cup, only 14% of them advanced to the round of 16 after 1 draw and 1 loss until the second game.

There were only 6 such cases, including this time in Korea.

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Just before the World Cup in Russia, Argentina was like that.

Argentina, who were in Group D of the preliminary round, drew 1-1 with Iceland in their first match and lost to Croatia 3-0.

However, they dramatically advanced to the round of 16 with a 2-1 win over Nigeria in their last game.

The content of the match was also dramatic.

In the 14th minute of the first half, Lionel Messi scored the opening goal, but Nigeria scored a penalty kick to turn the game around.

However, in the 41st minute of the second half, Roho's dramatic winning goal exploded the celebration of advancing to the round of 16.

It was similar to the match between Korea and Portugal this time.

After that, they lost 4-3 to France in the round of 16 and failed to advance to the quarterfinals.

France is the World Cup winner in Russia.

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Messi celebrates after scoring the opening goal against Nigeria in the 2018 World Cup group stage match

The most successful case after receiving 1 draw and 1 loss until the 2nd game was Turkey at the time of the 2002 Korea-Japan World Cup.

At the time, Turkey lost to Brazil in the first game in the group stage and was on the verge of elimination after drawing against Costa Rica in the second game, but beat China 3-0 in the last game to advance to the round of 16.

Afterwards, they defeated Japan and Senegal in turn, and defeated Korea in the 3rd and 4th place matches to finish in 3rd place.

Anyway, Korea had a dramatic experience this time in which only 6 teams out of 224 teams in the 7 World Cups, or 2.7%, were able to enjoy it.

In fact, Korea is the only country in the 2022 Qatar World Cup to advance to the round of 16 with 1 draw and 1 loss until the second leg.

The Associated Press wrote that it was "one of the most violently finished group stages in the World Cup's 92-year history."

The match against Portugal was a drama that will be remembered not only in Korea, but also in the history of the World Cup finals. 

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It won't be easy, but I hope you write another drama. 

Tomorrow morning, the fateful round of 16 match against Brazil, World Cup channel SBS will be with you.