On the fourth day of this football World Cup, the selection of the German Football Association (DFB) intervenes in the tournament.
It starts off against Japan.
The previous World Cup games show that even the big names don't always start without problems.
Outsiders definitely have their chance.
That's why the values in the World Cup forecast by Daniel Memmert and Fabian Wunderlich are not zero.
Everyone has a chance, only the probabilities of winning, drawing and losing vary.
And what about this Wednesday?
The 2018 World Cup finalists will play in the first game of the day (11:00 a.m. CET in the FAZ live ticker for the soccer World Cup, on ARD and on MagentaTV). Croatia, which lost to France in the final, meets Morocco.
The differences between the two teams are smaller than you might think.
The Europeans are ahead in the world rankings (12th to 22nd place), and they are also more expensive in terms of average market values (14.5 million euros to 9.7), but the Croatian probability of victory is still only 46.6 percent.
So tension is definitely guaranteed.
Then it is Germany's turn (2 p.m. CET in the FAZ live ticker for the World Cup, on ARD and on MagentaTV).
In 2018, the DFB team lost to Mexico at the start, it was the beginning of the early end after the preliminary round.
Opponent Japan at least made it to the round of 16.
In the world rankings, the Germans are a little ahead of the Asians (11th to 24th place), and much more clearly (34.1 to 5.9) in terms of market values.
All in all, there is a German probability of winning due to the betting market of 65.5 percent.
In the following duel between the German group opponents Spain and Costa Rica (5 p.m. CET in the FAZ live ticker for the soccer World Cup, on ARD and on MagentaTV), the roles are clearly divided, even if the Iberians lost four and a half years ago after a defeat in eliminated in the round of sixteen.
Costa Rica failed in the preliminary round.
In the world rankings, the differences are now (7th to 31st place) just as serious as in the market values (34.7 to 0.7).
This results in a proud 82.9 percent probability of a Spanish success at the start.
The situation at the end of Wednesday (8:00 p.m. CET in the FAZ live ticker for the World Cup, on ARD and on MagentaTV) is not quite as clear.
Belgium finished third in 2018 after losing in the semifinals, while Canada only qualified for a World Cup in 1986.
The world rankings also provide a clear picture (2nd to 31st place), as well as the average market values (21.7 to 7.2).
The chances for Belgium are similar to those in the German game against Japan: Kevin De Bruyne and Co. win with a probability of 63.2 percent.