How long will Carlos Alcaraz be number 1? Everything is in his favor for a long reign

• Milestone Carlos Alcaraz reaches number 1, a spinal moment for anyone: "From then on, nothing was unattainable"

• Special This is the game of Carlos Alcaraz, the great sensation of tennis

• Chronicle Carlos Alcaraz defeats Ruud, wins the US Open and becomes the youngest number 1 in history

"Carlos can improve a lot of things. Now that he's number one he has to keep winning, we know that and I'll remind him of it," proclaimed

's coach

, and, in his view, his own experience.

At 23 years old he reached number one in the world, back in 2003, he was only eight weeks at the top and descended never to return.

The enjoyment was brief, too brief, the fourth shortest in history ahead of

(six weeks),

(two weeks) and

(a single week).

Despite his exaggerated youth, Alcaraz's goal now must be the future, to remain the best tennis player on the planet for as long as possible and he has everything in his favor so that this time is long.

At the beginning, the memories of his technician, who will demand more than ever.

And then many more factors.

In fact, the most realistic calculation places Alcaraz as number one when 2022 ends. Only a lousy end of the year for him and an incredible conclusion from others could take away that honor.

Because it seems that the stars have come together.

For example, Alcaraz is favored by the cancellation of the Asian tour with four major tournaments, the Shanghai Masters 1000, the Beijing ATP 500 and the Chengdu and Zhuhai ATP 250.

Due to that decision -again with the coronavirus as the culprit- between now and the end of November, when the course ends, the calendar is shorter than usual and, therefore, there are fewer points, much fewer points, at stake.

But that's not his only advantage.

the adversaries

There is another even more important: his main threat is

.

And Rafa Nadal is no longer so interested in number one in the world ranking.

And Rafa Nadal is weeks away from being a father.

And Rafa Nadal carries some physical discomfort.

And for all this Rafa Nadal will surely not play everything between now and winter.

Less than 1,000 points behind Alcaraz and with no points to defend, he would be the great candidate to overtake Alcaraz, but in principle he will be seen little.

At the moment, in addition to his participation in the Laver Cup, he is only confirmed for the Paris-Bercy Masters 1000 and for the ATP Finals, that is, for the two weight tournaments that remain this year.

He will be up to four more ATP 500 at stake, Tokyo, Astana, Vienna and Basel, but Nadal will not participate, in principle.

So Alcaraz can only worry about two men:

and

.

Both barely defend points, both can excel on indoor cement and both have plenty of legs to face the end of the year.

What happen?

That Alcaraz also meets these factors.

The Spaniard will play the Davis Cup this week in Valencia, will rest, will reappear in Astana (early October), will play in Basel, will fight for the Paris-Bercy Masters 1000 and will now face the ATP Finals.

Very badly he has to be given that path so as not to be sure to finish as number one this 2022 even before the final appointment that will take place in Turin.

If the failures accumulate, Ruud will be very attentive, who is expected in Tokyo and perhaps in some ATP 250 tournament before Paris-Bercy, and Tsitsipas who will try to forget about the US Open in Astana, Vienna and also some ATP 250.

The numbers add up.

In his current line-up, Alcaraz will hardly need a handful of wins to celebrate New Year's Eve from the top of the ATP list and then face a pleasant 2023.

Since he was eliminated in the third round in the last Australian Open, the number one will not begin to demand him until the beginning of spring, when he will already have to defend the title at the Masters 1000 in Miami in addition to other notable results.

So with Carlos Alcaraz there is number one for a while and, if he relaxes too much, his coach, Juan Carlos Ferrero, will be there to remind him with his experience that such a success can be brief.

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