Ambition test: why the derby in the 20th round of the RPL is the moment of truth for Dynamo and Spartak

On the eve of the face-to-face meeting within the framework of the 20th round of the Russian Championship, Dynamo and Spartak are solving different problems.

If the wards of Sandro Schwartz are only two points behind the leading Zenit and continue to fight for gold, then their rivals are trying to turn the tide of an unsuccessful season.

In ten previous matches, the red-whites won only two victories and settled on the ninth line, and in order to get into the European Cup zone at the end of the championship (if they have the opportunity to play in them), they need to create a small miracle.

On paper, Dynamo is the clear favorite of Russia's oldest derby.

An impressive unbeaten streak of six matches and a high quality of the game speak for him, as evidenced by extended statistics.

The White-Blues not only occupy the fourth place in terms of the number of expected goals (30.05), but also have the most impregnable defense at their disposal.

In terms of xGA, they rank first in the league (18.19) and are fifth in goals conceded.

This is due to the lack of an extra-class goalkeeper who is able to help out in difficult situations over and over again.

This can explain the fact that CSKA misses the least, allowing them to create much more dangerous moments at their gates.

True, in the next meeting, Schwartz will not be able to count on two key defenders at once, which threatens to make the team's defense much less strong.

Ivan Ordets will not enter the VTB Arena field due to the situation around Ukraine, and Roman Evgeniev due to disqualification.

Thus, paired with Fabian Balbuena, either 20-year-old Alexander Kutitsky or his peer Sabu Sazonov will have to be released.

And it is highly likely that the last one will have a chance to prove himself.

It was the pupil of "Zenith" who appeared during the away game with "Khimki" and looked pretty good for 34 minutes, allowing "Dynamo" to defend the most important three points.

But in the attacking line the situation is more than encouraging.

In the spring part, Dynamo played two matches, in each of which they scored three goals.

And two-thirds of them were recorded by Daniil Fomin and Fedor Smolov at their own expense.

Yes, each of them converted a penalty once, but managed to score from the game.

But if the midfielder has long been one of the cornerstones in the constructions of Schwartz, then the forward quickly got used to the new conditions and began to churn out goals.

With his return, the Blue and White finally found a striker capable of consistently scoring goals throughout the season.

And this has been a problem before.

Even despite the progress of Vyacheslav Grulev and the presence of promising Konstantin Tyukavin.

As for Spartak, in the winter the club had a much larger transfer campaign than its rival in the derby.

But so far it is impossible to firmly say that the newcomers are guaranteed to strengthen the team.

In the meeting with CSKA, only Christopher Martins received enough playing time, but he left an ambiguous impression of himself.

Although the Luxembourger chalked up five tackles and one interception, he often made the wrong decisions with the ball, which led to frequent losses.

This was especially striking against the background of the legionnaires of the army, who immediately began to work out the funds invested in them.

In turn, a crushing victory in the 1/8 finals of the Russian Cup is hardly worth considering in the light of the future derby.

Kuban was not like the team that defeated Krasnodar in the group stage a few months ago, and literally fell apart under the pressure of the ten-time national champion.

Yes, six goals is a pleasant fact, but it hardly makes it possible to judge both the progress of the team and the skill of the newcomers.

Undoubtedly, a hat-trick by Shamar Nicholson and three assists by Daniil Khlusevich is a joyful event, but it is not a fact that this will allow them to enter the derby from the first minutes.

However, a major success could give Spartak some momentum that could help them in one of the most important matches of the rest of the season.

At the moment, Vanoli's wards are ten points behind the fourth line, which gives a ticket to the Conference League, and any misfire makes their chances of getting into European competitions through the RPL minimal.

Yes, there is still the Cup, but in it the competition promises to be as high as ever.

Among the contenders are Zenit, Dynamo and Rubin, and in the quarterfinals of the red and white, another meeting with CSKA awaits.

Stopping the fight for high places in the RPL and betting on the Cup is too risky a step, especially given the latest results of Spartak in the tournament.

After the triumph in 2003, the Muscovites only once stopped a step away from victory, and four more times they completed the performance at the 1/2 stage, and they were inferior only to the future trophy owners - CSKA, Lokomotiv, Tosno and Zenit.

Therefore, the upcoming derby is of particular importance for Spartak, and the defeat deprives them of plan B. In this case, the gap from the army team can increase to 13 points, and such a gap is extremely difficult to win back even in ten rounds.

Especially given the uncertainty regarding legionnaires.

So far, not a single foreigner has left the location of the ten-time champions of the country, but a similar scenario cannot be ruled out.

However, this match is also important for Dynamo.

The loss of points can help Zenit to increase the lead, which in the current conditions can practically “kill” the intrigue in the battle for the championship in the RPL.

Petersburgers have already managed to play both with direct competitors for medals and with uncomfortable CSKA and Rubin, as a result of which they have a rather comfortable calendar.

In the remaining rounds, they have only four meetings with top opponents - Lokomotiv, Krasnodar, Sochi and Spartak, but there are serious doubts about the combat capability of the first two.

The railway workers recently lost devastatingly to the Yenisei, and the bulls were left without foreigners.

Dynamo has an almost identical schedule, which actually equalizes the chances of both teams for success.

But Zenit has both great experience in fighting for the trophy and a long bench, and having a comfortable backlog will only increase its advantage over the pursuer.

Therefore, in order to continue the chase, Schwartz's wards need to interrupt the unbeaten streak of seven matches and take over Spartak in the RPL.

Otherwise, you can say goodbye to hopes for gold.