On November 26 in Zurich, the draw will take place for the play-off matches for reaching the FIFA World Cup in Qatar. The Russian national team was among the seeded and can meet at the first stage with the national teams of Turkey, Poland, North Macedonia, Austria or the Czech Republic. Valery Karpin's wards will host one of them on March 24 next year, and if they win, they will play in the final five days later, where their rivals, among other things, can be Italy or Portugal.
Previously, domestic football players took part in the playoff round of qualifying tournaments three times, and if they failed to get tickets to the world championship in both cases (in 1997 they lost to Italy - 1: 1, 0: 1, and in 2009 they lost to Slovenia - 2: 1, 0: 1), then the only attempt to break through to the Euro was crowned with success (in 2003 they defeated Wales - 0: 0, 1: 0) thanks to a goal from Vadim Evseev on the road. However, this time the format of the joints is significantly different from the previous one and you have to win twice to achieve what you want.
Who benefits from the new structure of the decisive qualification stage, how likely is the national team to qualify for the 2022 World Cup, and which of the rivals is more convenient for it to face?
These questions from RT were answered by well-known experts and players Gadzhi Gadzhiev, Alexander Samedov, Yuri Nikiforov, Andrey Kobelev, Alexander Tochilin, Andrey Kanchelskis, Diniyar Bilyaletdinov and Dmitry Kuznetsov.
Which of the potential rivals is more convenient?
Gadzhiev:
“Austria and the Czech Republic are the least comfortable.
The rest of the teams are about the same level.
It's good that the first round will be held within the home walls.
Will be simpler.
However, with any team that comes across, you will need to fight.
I think we can do it. "
Samedov:
“In the playoffs, there are approximately equal teams and you need to fight any.
However, I don’t presume to assess the chances and say with whom it would be better to play.
I will just wish the guys to enter the world championship. "
Nikiforov:
“All opponents are tough enough, but the result will depend on us.
Although, by definition, it is not easy to play with Turkey and the Czech Republic.
Naturally, this is not Italy with Portugal, but judging by our matches with Malta and Cyprus, it will be difficult to resist anyone.
You don't have to wait for an easy walk in any case.
And you don't need to adjust, you need to dictate your own conditions.
Many people think: "It would be better to get Macedonia or Turkey."
However, they will also die on the field.
So it won't get any easier regardless of the name and status of the opponent. "
Kobelev:
“There are still four months before the play-offs.
During this time, everything can change both for the better and for the worse - both for us and for the rest.
The same injuries in football players occur quite suddenly and can pursue any team.
Much will depend on this.
And discussing how convenient the opponent was for Karpin's charges is in March, and not after the draw. "
Tochilin:
“Now everyone has learned to play and can be quite inconvenient for us.
Moreover, there are no simple rivals at this stage.
You can't think that someone is weaker.
Yes, it would be nice to go up against those whom we can definitely defeat, but you can't look into the future.
It is necessary to prepare competently, and this is a question for the head coach: how is he going to win, what tactics he will choose, whom he will count on ”.
Kanchelskis:
“Each participant of the joints deserves to get to the world championship and wants to be in Qatar, so I would not evaluate which of the potential rivals is better.
Everyone is equal.
We will fight with anyone.
I do not see among them who can definitely be called the favorite in the confrontation with Russia.
Much will depend on the players' health in March.
God grant that there were no injuries, and the players came up in good psychological and physical condition. "
Bilyaletdinov:
“Obviously, it would be preferable to meet with Macedonia.
In principle, one can claim to be successful in a confrontation with any team that we may get caught at the start of the playoffs, but the Macedonians and Turks are the most adventurous in defense.
Actually, they can be made to make mistakes with the high pressure often used by Russia under Karpin.
It's more difficult to play with Austria or Poland. They preach a more forceful manner of football and can give us problems. And even the point is not that both teams will not be revealed. It's just that they have more qualified footballers in their arsenal who are able to get out of the pressure. Do not forget about the strength of their attack, about such stars as Lewandowski and Zabitzer. "
Kuznetsov:
“In principle, all opponents are tough for us.
Many people call Macedonia the weakest, but they also competed in the Euro and defeated Armenia with a score of 5: 0.
Therefore, you should treat anyone with respect and show your maximum.
It is good that neither Portugal nor Italy will threaten Russia in the semifinals.
So they could count on less exit.
However, we should not somehow divide rivals into more and less convenient ones.
Previously, we did not discuss at all who we got.
We scored five or six goals for the weak, but they fought with the favorites and there were always chances to win.
And now we think: "Who would be better to play with?"
Strong people don't do that. "
Who benefits from the new play-off format?
Hajiyev:
“It is more difficult for everyone, because it is easier to prepare against one team. But the strongest teams will go to Qatar. There is some kind of sporting justice in the fact that the teams that scored the most points in the qualifying groups became seeded in the draw for the joints. Therefore, the playoff system itself is quite normal and logical. If there were no sowing, we could immediately meet with the Italians. And so, in the final we can play with anyone, not necessarily with the favorite. "
Samedov:
“It seems to me that it was easier before, because now we have to go through two rounds.
Even taking into account the first meeting at home, a lot will depend on the level of the opponents.
Arguments that they should definitely win in their field, and then they may be lucky, are just guesses.
Anything could happen.
In any case, you must first go through the first stage.
In March, we'll see how it is best.
Time will show".
Nikiforov:
“The new format is much more difficult.
Earlier, if you won the first meeting, then you roughly understood what to prepare for in the return, and who would oppose you.
Now it is necessary not only to win “to order”, but also to analyze the opponent’s playing style in a short time ”.
Kobelev:
“It is generally not beneficial for the teams that took second places in the groups. Playing with different teams in a short amount of time is not very easy for anyone. The knockout playoff implies that there is no room for error now and everything will be decided here and now. Now you need to defeat two opponents, but you recognize the second four to five days before the meeting. Because of this, it is necessary to carefully study all the participants in the playoffs, to carry out additional work. At the same time, it is clear why such a format was made: everything is aimed at entertainment, business, and so that each team strives to get out of the first place in the qualification. The more games there are, the more UEFA and FIFA earn. "
Tochilin:
“I think the format used to be more favorable - there was a margin for error. Now he is gone. Any unsuccessful game ends, but in a two-legged confrontation you can always rehabilitate yourself in a return match. The strategy of preparation was built on assumptions about how a particular opponent would act in his field and away. There was an opportunity to distribute forces. "
Kanchelskis:
“The result will determine how convenient the playoff system is for us. Perhaps someone likes this format, but no one has yet participated in the joints according to such a system. As for the home field in the first round, it is difficult to say how much this will allow you to leave a reserve of energy for the second match. We have already saved our forces with Cyprus, and then were defeated by Croatia on all counts. We have to go out and give our best at 200%, as for the last fight. "
Bilyaletdinov:
“At first glance, a weak team has more chances to win one meeting than to emerge victorious from a two-legged confrontation with a favorite. But one match, on the contrary, does not give the right to make a mistake. And you should take a more responsible approach to creating and implementing your chances and playing on the defensive. In the decisive meeting, you shouldn't expect that you can endure it and get out on the penalty spot, since the psychological pressure will be too high, and in such a situation it is very difficult to sit out in defense and not miss. "
Kuznetsov:
“Naturally, the version of joints that has sunk into oblivion is better.
There was an opportunity to thoroughly study the opponent, and to reorganize for the second game.
The current system looks more like a lottery, because you don't know who you have to play with, although, of course, you can study everyone before the semifinals.
Moreover, it is one thing if, in the event of a victory over Macedonia, you go, for example, to Poland, and it is another thing to visit someone of the level of Portugal and Italy.
Then there is practically no chance left, because there is not much time to prepare for the final. "
What is the likelihood of reaching the World Cup in Qatar?
Hajiyev:
“I think we have at least 50% for the first stage, but in the final, a lot will depend on who you are going to meet with.
For example, it will be extremely difficult with Italians and Portuguese - here I will give no more than 30% to win.
If someone else gets it in the second round, then the chances will be equal.
In addition, the location of the final meeting will influence the pre-match layouts.
Suddenly we are lucky and will be the owners again.
Samedov:
“I will not venture to predict.
It is very difficult now.
I just hope that Russia will make it to the World Cup. ”
Nikiforov:
“I don’t give forecasts, but I very much wish Karpin's team to enter the tournament.
I want to root for our guys there, not for the Spaniards or Germans. "
Kobelev:
“It will be possible to discuss the probability of an exit closer to the match itself.
It will depend on who exactly gets it and on the readiness of the players in a particular period.
We will have a winter break, and in Europe they will play without it.
Therefore, now it resembles fortune telling on coffee grounds. "
Tochilin:
“We are clearly not favorites in the struggle to enter the championship, but we are not outsiders either.
Therefore, I give 50% for the passage of Karpin's charges. "
Kanchelskis:
“Everyone has equal chances before the draw.
But after that, for some they will increase, while for others they will decrease.
In the semifinals, the Russian national team can do everything, besides, they will have to play in their native walls.
And we will talk about the finale when we find ourselves there.
It is worth solving problems gradually - step by step, as they say. "
Bilyaletdinov:
“In the first meeting, we must get the upper hand. If the guys are in a good mood, they will win. Moreover, the audience will support. I would not sprinkle ashes on my head in any case. Now our clubs will go on a winter break, they will hold training camps. The only question is how well they will work for them, and in what state they will be able to approach March. Each team has its own training program: some can be in a functional pit after a break, others - on the contrary. Do not forget that at the training camp there are often injuries and unnecessary test matches. The coach of the national team needs to monitor and analyze all this. Perhaps Karpin will have to somehow negotiate with the mentors of the clubs about some details in the preparation. It's an interesting challenge. "
Kuznetsov:
“Any outcome can be expected from Russia.
Who thought it would be possible to defeat Slovakia and Slovenia?
And Karpin's team did it.
You just need to prepare, study your opponents, and then leave all your strength on the field.
Then, you look, and luck will be on our side. "