12 teams for three trips
The qualifying stage of the World Championship in Europe invariably turns out to be much more interesting and intense than the qualification of the continental championship.
The reason is the smaller number of tickets to the final stage.
If now 24 national teams get to the Euro, then only 13. In such tough conditions, a number of strong teams, as a rule, will fail.
So this time, in addition to Russia, Italy, Portugal, Sweden, Poland, Turkey and others failed to break through directly to Qatar.
All of them will have their last chance in the spring of 2022 in the form of play-offs, which will be held in the new format for the first time.
Previously, the teams that took second places in the groups, in two-match confrontations, determined the holders of four tickets to the championship of the planet. Now in the spring only three teams will get a chance to go to Qatar. And the playoffs will consist of two rounds, in each of which the participants will have to hold only one meeting. Thus, there will be no chances to rectify the situation in the return game, as before.
In the draw for the semifinals, the teams will be divided into seeded and unseeded.
The first category includes the runners-up with the best performance (Portugal, Scotland, Italy, Russia, Sweden and Wales).
At the same time, in groups with six teams, the results of meetings with opponents who were on the last line were not taken into account.
For comparison, Valery Karpin's wards were missing six points gained in the confrontation with Malta, but this did not affect their positions.
Finally, the second group included the four worst-performing teams (Turkey, Poland, North Macedonia and Ukraine) and two winners of the League of Nations groups (Austria and the Czech Republic), who failed to break through.
At the draw, which will take place on November 26, the participants will be divided into three paths, four teams each.
Within each of them, semi-finals and finals will be held at the end of March.
It is important that in the first round the seeded is guaranteed to play at home.
But the hosts of the decisive matches will be determined by a draw.
Two League of Nations winners
The key difference between the current selection and the previous ones is the participation of two teams, which showed themselves brightly in the last season of the League of Nations.
The group winners of the new tournament were given the opportunity to qualify for the joints in case of failure.
France, Spain, Italy, Belgium and Wales hit the top two on their own.
But Austria and the Czech Republic got the second chance.
At the same time, it cannot be said that they failed in qualifications and did not deserve the right to continue the fight.
Thus, the former shared the third place in the F sextet with Israel, leaving behind only the current bronze medalist of the Euro, Denmark and Scotland.
The latter fought to the end for a ticket to the joints with Wales.
It can be said that the creation of the League of Nations added intrigue to the qualifying round, because the opportunity to compete for a trip to Qatar was given to two unique “lucky losers” at once.
On the other hand, the path for the teams that took second places in their groups has become seriously complicated.
A couple of clear favorites
The unexpected failure of two top teams at once - Portugal and Italy - made life even more difficult for the participants of the joints.
The 2016 European Champions in the 90th minute allowed Serbia to snatch an away victory in Lisbon and at the last moment dropped to the second line in octet A.
And the strongest national team of the continent at the moment in the final round managed to disperse peacefully with Northern Ireland and missed Switzerland in first place.
At the same time, at the end of the key face-to-face meeting between them, Jorginho could have brought Squaudre Azzurra an important victory with an equal score, but did not convert the penalty.
Their hitting the joints noticeably reduced the chances of success for other more modest teams.
After all, if the seeded in the semifinals still get relatively comfortable opponents, then in the finals, one of them is guaranteed to have two giants waiting.
With a high degree of probability, they will get two tickets out of three, if the lot does not determine them in one way.
At the same time, the Italians did not manage to directly qualify for the second world championship in a row.
In 2017, they unexpectedly lost to Sweden at the joints (0: 1, 0: 0).
Thus, one of the strongest teams on the continent did not come to Russia.
The Portuguese, on the other hand, fought their way through the playoffs at the 2014 World Cup in Brazil.
Then they finished in the main stage just behind the national team, having suffered a defeat with a minimum score in Moscow, but in a two-round confrontation with the same Sweden they turned out to be stronger (1: 0, 3: 2).
A chance for the only debutant
One team also got into the joints, which had never previously taken part in the final stage of the planetary championship.
North Macedonia has made significant progress in recent years and made its Euro debut in the summer, making its way to the tournament through the League of Nations.
In the qualification of the World Cup, the Balkans managed to get ahead of Romania, Armenia and Iceland.
For a long time, other unseeded national teams have not participated in the championship of the planet.
For example, Austria last played at the World Cup in 1998, Turkey in 2002, and the Czech Republic and Ukraine in 2006.
Moreover, the Turks at the last world championship for themselves reached the semifinals and won bronze.
Eight options for Russia
Until the last moment, domestic fans hoped that the Russian national team would take first place in their group and receive a ticket to Qatar.
Unfortunately, Fedor Kudryashov's own goal changed the alignment and helped Croatia to directly qualify for the tournament.
However, even before the decisive match in Split, it became clear that Karpin's wards, if they get into the joints, are guaranteed to become seeded there thanks to their successful performance in the group stage.
Without taking into account the two victories over the outsider Malta, the team has 16 points.
Portugal and Scotland are only one point ahead of it, and Italy - only in additional indicators.
At the same time, Russia will definitely not meet with Ukraine in the playoffs.
In recent years, UEFA has been divorcing neighbors for political reasons.
This means that the Russians are guaranteed not to play with two more teams, so as not to get on the same path with the "zhovto-blakitnye".
We can only hope that Italy or Portugal will be among them.
In any case, the national team will face a difficult road to the championship of the planet.
In the semi-finals, the chances of success are pretty high.
The national team can be rivaled by Turkey, Poland, North Macedonia, Austria or the Czech Republic and are guaranteed to play at home.
Considering the ability of the national team to take their own in fights with opponents equal and inferior in class, even if the game is not the brightest, this inspires optimism.
But in the final Karpin's team can get to one of the seeded national teams - Portugal, Scotland, Italy, Sweden or Wales.
Of course, there are two giants that pose the greatest danger.
Even if the national team is lucky with the draw and it plays again at its stadium, it will be incredibly difficult to pass such powerful teams.
This would be the worst option for the team.
The most favorable will be a hit on North Macedonia, which ranks 74th in the FIFA rankings.
In the final, we can only hope for a meeting with Scotland, which, although it scored 23 points in the selection, cannot boast of having stars, such as, for example, Gareth Bale in Wales.
And at the last European Championship, the British drew attention to themselves only with a goalless draw with England.
In the qualifying tournament for the very championship of the continent, they lost twice to Russia (1: 2, 0: 4).