Why is Rivian worth 55 billion without having sold an electric car yet?

• 1,000 billion Tesla joins the select club of Google, Apple, Facebook or Amazon

• Market "We cannot ask to buy cars 25% more expensive if they cannot be used"

Rivian will debut on

.

According to the modified brochure presented this past Monday of the Public Offering of Sale (IPO, for its acronym in English), the price of the common shares

.

It plans to offer

.

If they were paid at 62 dollars and the purchase of those 155.25 million securities were executed, on the first day of their

on the New York stock market,

In addition, starting the listing at that minimum price means valuing the company at

(47,100 million euros at the current exchange rate).

The most incredible thing about Rivian is that it will go public before it has sold a series electric car on the market.

Why is Rivian worth so much?

Is it a stock bubble?

Rivian claims to have a solvent and growing business for the next few years, although it also foresees risks.

Rivian currently has

.

All of them 100% electric.

They would be a pick up, the Rivian R1T and a 7-seater SUV, the R1S;

and the Rivian EV Van designed for Amazon.

Rivian explains that

. Almost all of these vehicles

, and we hope to increase the deliveries to external customers as we increase our production rate. "

The Rivian R1t 100% electric pick up

As for the Rivian R1S, "We plan to launch and begin deliveries in December 2021, after completing ongoing vehicle validation and all required testing.

.

As for

, the activity here is focused on supplying the order for

, one of Rivian's main shareholders, has placed with it.

Rivian explains that "we will launch the Rivian Commercial Vehicle (" RCV ") platform with our first vehicle, the Electric Delivery Van (" EDV "), designed and manufactured by Rivian in collaboration with Amazon, our first commercial customer."

The order of 100,000 units to be delivered in the next four years once deliveries begin.

According to Rivian

However, in addition to the delivery of commercial vehicles,

, like the one already offered by many vehicle fleet operators to logistics companies.

For the American company, this would be one of the pillars of its business in the coming years.

In addition, it explains that the contract to deliver the EDV vans to Amazon does not exclude Rivian from reaching agreements with other logistics companies to manufacture custom vans based on its platform.

Orders

However, Rivian claims to have a high order book.

from customers who each paid a cancellable and fully refundable deposit of $ 1,000."

"Based on our current production forecast, we expect to complete our preorder backlog of approximately 55,400 by the end of 2023," explains Rivian.

In the short term, the objective will be to fulfill the orders of the pickup and SUV, R1T and R1S and EDV commercial vans.

in the long term and attract more customers "by building a broad portfolio of digital vehicles and services with global appeal. We are designing technology and infrastructure to support and benefit from the future transition to greater autonomy, new models property and renewable energy solutions. "

Rivian R1S, a 100% electric 7-seater pickup

Risks

Despite the orders and the forecasts, Rivian points out risks and uncertainties inherent to a start-up. Risks of all kinds,

; from their reliance on small suppliers to over-reliance on

not forgetting that they are being affected like the rest of the automotive industry by the shortage of semiconductors and chips.

And what matters to investors: if they will be profitable and if customers will be loyal to the brand in the medium and long term.

.

"We believe that we will continue to incur net and operating losses as we grow," despite increased revenues when R1S and EDV sales begin.

In addition, they heal in health saying that

, develop capacity and increase operations, and we cannot assure you that we will ever achieve or be able to maintain profitability in the future" .

Tesla's way

However, and despite the risks to which

and electromobility sector is also added, Tesla is the example to be followed by companies such as Rivian or Fisker (the latter has overcome bankruptcy).

The company chaired by Elon Musk

, having been created in 2003. It is logical that Rivian is cautious in terms of delivery and launch of its vehicles.

Tesla is paid for non-compliance with the expected delivery deadlines, which has not been an obstacle for it to become a standard of electric mobility.

Tesla CybertruckTesla

Part of the

in Tesla's launches, including that of the Rivian R1T's rival Cybertruck pickup, stem from bottlenecks in production, from mismatches between the design and the production processes of a start-up. , of which Rivian speaks in his letter of presentation to investors.

Now Tesla is not only in the club of companies like Google, Facebook, Amazon or Microsoft that are worth more than 1,000 billion dollars on the stock market, but the big traditional automotive giants like the Volkswagen Group look at their vehicle production costs electrical appliances and their battery management software to implement them in their companies.

Price

Rivian launches the

, with 314 and 316 miles (505 and 508 km) respectively, of electric autonomy in the approval cycle of the Agency US Environmental EPA.

These prices are above a tough competitor, the

, the electric pickup from the oval firm will start at

, but will offer

.

Although Ford is a rival in the market, it has invested 820 million dollars in Rivian and its subsidiary Troy Design and Manufacturing Co has collaborated since April 2019 in the development and design of the R1T and R1S.

Ford F-150 Lightning

And another rival would be the

that Elon Musk announced for this year and that, at the moment, it is not clear when it will hit the market.

What does not seem to have changed yet is its market price.

Musk promised it would start at $ 39,900.

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